Winner’s rank in previous year’s rankings

Example:

The winner of the 2009 4A championship (09) finished the previous year ranked #11.

   01 02 03    04 05 06 07   08  09
4A  1  6  2    10  2 11  2    5  11  
3A 20 12  2     1  1 19 18    3   5
2A  8  2  4 3A-43  3  9  3 3A-1   1
1A  2 24  9     3  8 15  4 2A-9   3
A  19  3  2     4 12 37  8 1A-8   1
8   2  3  3     5  4  7 20   23   1

A cumulative presentation:

 Rank    Num  ratio Cumul  ratio
 1         7   .130    7    .130
 2         8   .148   15    .278
 3         8   .148   23    .426
 4         4   .074   27    .500
 5         3   .055   30    .556
 6         1   .019   31    .574
 7         1   .019   32    .593
 8         4   .074   36    .667
 9         3   .055   39    .722
10         1   .019   40    .741
11         2   .037   42    .778
12         2   .037   44    .815
...
13-16      1          45
17-20      5          50
other      4          54

Notes:

1. 2008 was definitely the year of teams coming down in class. The winner of the 2008 class 2A, 1A, and A championships had been playing in a higher classification the previous year.

2. Finishing in the top five is a definite advantage to winning next year’s title. Fifty-six percent of all titles are won by a team that places in the top 5 of the previous year.

3. There is an interesting bunch of teams at #8 and #9. Placing 8th or 9th gives your team an averaged 6.5% (13.0%/2) chance of winning next year’s title. I am curious whether this “bump” exists in a 30-year time frame (1972-present) or if this is simply a random bump produced by a this short time frame of 9 years. At this time, I do not have complete enough data for a 30-year study to fully test this idea.

4. Twelfth places seems to be the borderline between contenders and long-shots, with the top 12 positions winning 81.5% of next year’s titles.

5. Biggest long-shot documented above was the 2004 class 2A winner, Waterloo Columbus. After finishing 2003 with 4 wins 5 losses, #43 in 3A, Columbus won the 2A championship 41-0 over Gilbert.

6. No one in this decade has won a championship after moving up a class.