2001-2009 data set:
class mean stdev
4A 87.44 15.05
3A 85.87 13.31
2A 72.57 13.50
1A 68.04 17.49
A 61.98 15.33
8 45.90 20.64
2010 preseason (current rankings, need to be improved):
class mean stdev
4A 79.30 21.57
3A 90.73 20.48
2A 81.42 17.54
1A 75.54 22.37
A 64.96 21.55
8 75.94 28.80
My current preseason rankings for the 4A and 3A means does not seem consistent with the long-term differences between 4A and 3A. Additionally it looks like I have class 8 over rated, although this is not a big deal since there are no class A versus class 8 games.
In 2001-2009 rankings, 4A is favored over 3A by (87.44-85.87) = 1.57. In current 2010 preseason rankings, 4A is favored by (79.30-90.73) = -11.43. To get to a 1.57 bias, I need to raise current 4A ratings by (1.57 – (-11.43)) = 13.00 points.
Week 0
08/20/2010 Sioux City East @ 3A Sioux City Heelan
08/20/2010 3A Sergeant Bluff-Luton @ Sioux City West
Week 1
08/27/2010 Sioux City North @ 3A LeMars
Week 2
09/03/2010 Council Bluffs Jefferson @ 3A Council Bluffs Lewis Central
09/03/2010 Des Moines Roosevelt @ 3A Grinnell
09/03/2010 3A Sioux City Heelan @ Sioux City North
09/03/2010 3A Harlan @ Council Bluffs Lincoln
N Current prediction Corrected prediction 1 SC Heelan by 53.47 SC Heelan by 40.47 2 SB-L by 42.51 SB-L by 29.51 3 LeMars by 33.49 LeMars by 20.49 4 Lewis Central by 60.50 Lewis Central by 47.50 5 Grinnell by 60.06 Grinnell by 47.06 6 SC Heelan by 56.73 SC Heelan by 43.73 7 Harlan by 64.64 Harlan by 51.64
All of these numbers seem way too high to me. However, at this point I have no unbiased insight. My biased insight (although perhaps correct) says to simply lower the spreads about 20 points.
I will monitor these games this season. Ultimately it is fabuluous that the iahsaa.org has scheduled these games. Much insight will be gained concerning this question: how strong are 4A football teams compared to 3A football teams?