Playoff winner’s ranking in week 5

Example:

The winner of the 2009 4A championship (09) finished was ranked #2 in week 5.


   00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
4A  1  2  4  1  1  1  1  1  1  2
3A  3 11  3  3  2  1  8 14  3  1
2A  1  4  4  3  3  1  1  3  1  2
1A  5  1  1  1  2  3 16  1  1  5
A  30  3  4  2  5  2  2  3  1  7
8   4  1  3  1  4  1  2  9 28  1
   44 22 19 11 17  9 30 31 35 18

Ranking at                                cumulative
week 5       Championships  probability  probability
1st               23              38.3%        38.3%
2nd                9              15.0%        53.3%
3rd               11              18.3%        71.7%
4th                6              10.0%        81.7%
5th                3               5.0%        86.7%
6th                0                           86.7%
7th                1                           88.3%
8th                1                           90.0%
9th                1                           91.3%
10th               0                           91.3%
other              5                          100.0%
total             60

Notes:

1. 82% of championships are won by one of the top 4 teams in the week 5 rankings

2. 87% of championships are won by one of the top 5 teams in the week 5 rankings

3. All other rankings 6th place to 30 place are equal in imperical probability: all long shots.

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Guess what — Week 5 rankings, http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2010/week5/, are now here.

Contenders:

Cl: 1st 38.3%, 2nd 15.0%, 3rd 18.3%, 4th 10.0%, 5th 5.0%
4A: CB Lincoln, WDM Dowling, Cedar Falls, Bettendorf, WDM Valley
3A: Williamsburg, Marion, Pella, Solon, Sioux City Heelan
2A: North Fayette, IC Regina, Western Christian, New Hampton, Spirit Lake
1A: CB St Albert, Aplington-Parkersburg, West Lyon, Emmetsburg, Logan-Magnolia
A: Madrid, Mason City Newman, Traer North Tama, Britt West Hancock
8: Armstrong-Ringsted, Moravia, Preston, Lenox, Northeast Hamilton

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