Example:
The winner of the 2009 4A championship (09) finished was ranked #2 in week 5.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 4A 1 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3A 3 11 3 3 2 1 8 14 3 1 2A 1 4 4 3 3 1 1 3 1 2 1A 5 1 1 1 2 3 16 1 1 5 A 30 3 4 2 5 2 2 3 1 7 8 4 1 3 1 4 1 2 9 28 1 44 22 19 11 17 9 30 31 35 18 Ranking at cumulative week 5 Championships probability probability 1st 23 38.3% 38.3% 2nd 9 15.0% 53.3% 3rd 11 18.3% 71.7% 4th 6 10.0% 81.7% 5th 3 5.0% 86.7% 6th 0 86.7% 7th 1 88.3% 8th 1 90.0% 9th 1 91.3% 10th 0 91.3% other 5 100.0% total 60
Notes:
1. 82% of championships are won by one of the top 4 teams in the week 5 rankings
2. 87% of championships are won by one of the top 5 teams in the week 5 rankings
3. All other rankings 6th place to 30 place are equal in imperical probability: all long shots.
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Guess what — Week 5 rankings, http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2010/week5/, are now here.
Contenders:
Cl: 1st 38.3%, 2nd 15.0%, 3rd 18.3%, 4th 10.0%, 5th 5.0%
4A: CB Lincoln, WDM Dowling, Cedar Falls, Bettendorf, WDM Valley
3A: Williamsburg, Marion, Pella, Solon, Sioux City Heelan
2A: North Fayette, IC Regina, Western Christian, New Hampton, Spirit Lake
1A: CB St Albert, Aplington-Parkersburg, West Lyon, Emmetsburg, Logan-Magnolia
A: Madrid, Mason City Newman, Traer North Tama, Britt West Hancock
8: Armstrong-Ringsted, Moravia, Preston, Lenox, Northeast Hamilton