Some thoughts on various teams:
4A #16 DM Lincoln (4-2):
DM Lincoln is feeling the effects of their previous opponent’s under-performance this week.
Computer expected SC East to lose by 17; they lost by 42.
Computer expected Southeast Polk to win by 21; they only won by 5.
Computer expected Mason City to lose by 19; they lost by 34.
In every case, these games affect the computer’s evaluation of DM Lincoln.
For example: DM Lincoln’s 6 point loss simply looks like a close loss to an almost midrange team, #15 SC East. Had SC East won, then DM Lincoln’s loss would have been much more impressive, perhaps a close loss to a top 5 team (SC East was #7 going into the game).
4A #4 Cedar Falls (6-0):
Cedar Falls seems to win all games by 21 points. If Cedar Falls is playing substitutes whenever they are up by 21, the computer may be underestimating their true strength.
4A #13 Ames (5-2), 4A #12 WDM Valley (4-2):
#13 Ames losses are to #8 Fort Dodge and #11 Ankeny.
#12 Valley losses are to #1 Dowling and #13 Ames.
Neither team has a top-10 win.
Computer thinks they are about equal, along with Ankeny.
2A #15 South Central Calhoun (6-0):
2A-2 is ranked #7 in toughest district race.
7 point win over #40 (2-4) Jefferson JSPC really looks bad. Rain may have affect this outcome.
A possible similiar team was IKM-Manning. IKM-Manning played 2008 and 2009 in 2A, before dropping to 1A. I think they were 23-3, lots of wins and similar rankings (11-20 or so) both years.
8 #11 Moravia (6-0):
Computer is now ignoring all games; thinking no previous opponent is at Moravia’s level. Hence all previous positive adjustments are now gone.
This continues to be something worth following.
Computer had a lucky week 6, picking 157 out of 176 games correctly, 89.2%. For the year, it is 864/1071, 80.7%.