Some thoughts on various teams:
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4A #16 DM Lincoln (4-2):
DM Lincoln is feeling the effects of their previous opponent’s under-performance this week.
Computer expected SC East to lose by 17; they lost by 42.
Computer expected Southeast Polk to win by 21; they only won by 5.
Computer expected Mason City to lose by 19; they lost by 34.
In every case, these games affect the computer’s evaluation of DM Lincoln.
For example: DM Lincoln’s 6 point loss simply looks like a close loss to an almost midrange team, #15 SC East. Had SC East won, then DM Lincoln’s loss would have been much more impressive, perhaps a close loss to a top 5 team (SC East was #7 going into the game).
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4A #4 Cedar Falls (6-0):
Cedar Falls seems to win all games by 21 points. If Cedar Falls is playing substitutes whenever they are up by 21, the computer may be underestimating their true strength.
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4A #13 Ames (5-2), 4A #12 WDM Valley (4-2):
#13 Ames losses are to #8 Fort Dodge and #11 Ankeny.
#12 Valley losses are to #1 Dowling and #13 Ames.
Neither team has a top-10 win.
Computer thinks they are about equal, along with Ankeny.
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2A #15 South Central Calhoun (6-0):
2A-2 is ranked #7 in toughest district race.
7 point win over #40 (2-4) Jefferson JSPC really looks bad. Rain may have affect this outcome.
A possible similiar team was IKM-Manning. IKM-Manning played 2008 and 2009 in 2A, before dropping to 1A. I think they were 23-3, lots of wins and similar rankings (11-20 or so) both years.
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8 #11 Moravia (6-0):
Computer is now ignoring all games; thinking no previous opponent is at Moravia’s level. Hence all previous positive adjustments are now gone.
This continues to be something worth following.
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General:
Computer had a lucky week 6, picking 157 out of 176 games correctly, 89.2%. For the year, it is 864/1071, 80.7%.