Here is a look at the predictability of the top 10 teams in Class 4A.
For this discussion, predictability is this: if a team is predicted to win by 20, they win by 20, and if a team is predicted to lose by 20, they lose by 20.
West Des Moines Dowling may be the most unpredictable undefeated team in years, maybe decades. Dowling’s standard deviation is 15.90, while the overall comp model’s overall standard deviation is 12.63. Overall Dowling is the 42nd most predictable team.
For example:
Dowling played WDM Valley twice, with game margins of 27 points and 3 points. Dowling played Ankeny twice, with game margins of 42 points and 3 points.
On the other side of predictability is Bettendorf, the 5th most predictable team.
Rk Team ( W-L) Stdev Rk
1 WDM Dowling (13-0) 15.90 42
2 Iowa City High (13-0) 11.78 27
3 CR Xavier ( 7-3) 18.38 46
4 CB Lincoln ( 9-1) 17.71 44
5 Cedar Falls (11-1) 9.83 12
6 Marion Linn-Mar ( 8-3) 12.89 30
7 Bettendorf (12-1) 9.03 5
8 Ankeny ( 9-4) 15.79 40
9 WDM Valley ( 7-4) 14.58 35
10 CR Kennedy ( 7-5) 11.64 26