SICL non-conference game count

> Each SICL team plays at most 1 team from out of their own conference during the season. Is that enough of a comparison to make a valid rating?

I really like your question.

Here are the 4 SICL non-conference games.

Date         Cl Rank Visitor            Score   Cl Rank Home               Score   Post Act
11/29/2010   1A   37 Morning Star          59   1A   75 English Valleys       42 -10.43 -17
11/29/2010   1A    8 Traer North Tama      68   1A   39 Belle Plaine          61 -13.36  -7
12/04/2010   2A   58 Eddyville-Blakesburg  43   1A    4 Lynnville-Sully       63  16.67  20
12/07/2010   1A   37 Morning Star          55   2A  126 Marengo Iowa Valley   22 -29.31 -33

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Bias:

Predictions are generally close to actual scores. In this case the SICL team is always the home team. Summing the games, SICL teams are predicted to lose by 36.43 points; they actually lost by 37 points.

I see no bias in evaluation of the SICL.

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Accuracy:

Residuals:

(-17 – (-10.43)) = -6.57
(-7 – (-13.36) = 6.36
(20 – 16.67) = 3.33
(-33 – (-29.31)) = -3.69

Standard deviation of residuals = 6.007
Overall standard deviation model = 6.8339

At this time, model is predicting SICL non-conference games more accurately than the average Iowa high school game.

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> But is one non-conference game enough?

As of now, and based on the bias and accuracy measurements above, one non-conference game per team is currently producting above-average predictions.

It is unclear to me that this analysis will works so well next week or next month. Prediction is hard, especially with only four games.

This should be monitored as more games are played.

BBB: historical class strengths

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12/13 Daily BBB Report

 Iowa High School Boys Basketball 12/13/2010 – Top 20 results Pre = pregame prediction Post = postgame prediction Act = actual game margin 4A Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 23 Mason City 59 4A 9 Urbandale 71 18.20 12.56 12 3A Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home […] Continue reading →