Week 0 Rankings

Week 0 rankings:

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2011/week0/

2011 Preaseason Football Rankings

iahsaa.org released football schedules today.

Thus, there is something to talk ago.

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Rankings:

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2011/preseason/

Rankings are biased, 100% last year’s power scores.

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Schools that are not fielding a team in 2011:

4A-A (2)

Milford Okoboji
Mondamin West Harrison

8 man (6)

Bode Twin River Valley
College Springs South Page
Miles East Central
Olin
Walnut
Woden-Crystal Lake-Titonka

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Class counts:

4A 47
3A 64
2A 63
1A 63
A 50
8 59
total 346

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Iowa high school football team counts

2000 364
2001 364
2002 363
2003 361
2004 363
2005 364
2006 363
2007 361
2008 358
2009 358
2010 354
2011 346

Preseason rankings construction

How do you construct a preseason ranking?

Last year I investigated the question of preseason rankings. Given that the computer knows nothing about the 2011 edition of all teams, how can an intelligent preseason rankings be constructed? Some initial notes are given here http://bcmoorerankings.com/2010/07/tradition-one-year-tradition/.

Possibilities:

1. Use last year’s team strengths
2. Use a different year’s team strengths
3. Use a combination of previous year’s team strengths
4. Use a combination of previous year’s team strengths, with a correction for returning starters

I really like #4, but there is no complete database of returning starters.

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After more work since last year’s post, here is a more complete set of data for testing possibility 1:

data, pred, corr/totl = ratio, notes
2000, 1999, 1188/1695 = 0.701, 7 new teams set to 0.00
2001, 2000, 1220/1699 = 0.718,
2002, 2001, 1182/1702 = 0.694, 2 new teams set to 0.00
2003, 2002, 1228/1716 = 0.716, 2 new teams set to 0.00
2004, 2003, 1192/1728 = 0.690, 10 new teams set to 0.00
2005, 2004, 1237/1729 = 0.715, 3 new teams set to 0.00
2006, 2005, 1246/1735 = 0.718, 2 new teams set to 0.00 - 1 renamed team set to 0.00
2007, 2006, 1226/1732 = 0.708, 3 new teams set to 0.00
2008, 2007, 1195/1800 = 0.664, 12 new teams set to 0.00
2009, 2008, 1292/1800 = 0.718, 2 new teams set to 0.00
Total      12206/17336 = 0.704

Details for line 1:

1999 strengths: these are the unbiased estimates of teams strengths obtained from the 1999 analysis
2000 data: the data set of all games played in 2000
correct: number of games picked correctly by using 1999 strengths
total: total number of games played in 2000
ratio: correct/total

Note:

If a new team is formed, its rating is set to zero. If a strong team is formed and gets set to 0.00, the prediction ratio will definitely go down. One example of this is IKM-Manning, formed in fall 2008. Both teams were previously quite strong, with the two teams finishing 1-2 after the 2006 season. In this example IKM-Manning should/could be rated as the average of the two schools previous ratings, undoubtedly improving the predictions for this new school.

So in general, a person can predict about 70% of games correctly by using last year’s analysis.

This is quite a large number in my opinion. Flipping a coin gives you 50% correct. Using last year’s data gets you to 70%. Doing a full regression analysis get you to 80%. Tradition, in the sense of 1 year tradition, adds value, quite a bit of value, in fact.

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Possibility 2 was investigated very thoroughtly last year:

http://bcmoorerankings.com/2010/07/predicting-a-decade-in-the-future/

game, pred, corr/totl, ratio, notes
2009, 2008, 1292/1800, 0.718, 2 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2007, 1157/1800, 0.643, 14 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2006, 1125/1800, 0.625, 17 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2005, 1094/1800, 0.608, 20 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2004, 1075/1800, 0.597, 23 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2003, 1023/1800, 0.568, 32 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2002, 1044/1800, 0.580, 34 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2001, 1047/1800, 0.582, 33 teams set to 0.00
2009, 2000, 1075/1800, 0.597, 33 teams set to 0.00
2009, 1999,  992/1800, 0.551, 38 teams set to 0.00

Explanation of last entry:
Use 1999 analysis to predict 2009 games
992 games picked correctly out of 1800, 55.1% correct
38 teams existed in 2009 that I don’t have strength data in 1999.

Thus, in general, predictions get worse as older data is used.

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Possibilities #3 and #4 remain elusive. There is only so much time …

iahsaa.org football schedules release schedule

This is a return of one of my favorite headlines from last year.

Iahsaa.org is scheduled to release football schedules on August 8. Excerpt of press release from iahsaa.org follows:

“Due to some schools dropping football, there were changes to many schedules. We are waiting to hear back from a handful of schools just to verify their new schedules. As a result, football schedules will be posted on our Website Monday morning, August 8.”

When the schedules are released, the analysis can begin.

As a result of past research, preseason rankings will rank teams based on their strength at the end of last season. Historical research indicates that this predicts about 70% of games correctly, see Tradition, One year Tradition. Which teams will do better than expected? Which teams will do worse than expected?

Week 0 starts August 19. Let the two week countdown begin.

FB: Winning streaks

Source: iahsaa.org

LONGEST CURRENT WINNING STREAKS – GOING INTO 2011

LONGEST WINNING STREAKS
Strk-Team Last Loss
23 – Armstrong-Ringsted (8P) 30-28 to North Sentral Kossuth, Sept. 25, 2009
14 – Dowling Catholic, WDM (4A) 28-25 to Marshalltown, Nov. 13, 2009
14 – Regina, Iowa City (2A) 42-7 to Solon, Nov. 6, 2009
14 – North Tama, Traer (A) 28-26 to Newman Catholic, Mason City, Nov. 13, 2009
12 – Solon (3A) 21-15 to Regina, Iowa City, Sept. 3, 2010
8 – West Lyon (1A) 17-10 to Emmetsburg, Oct. 1, 2010
State all-time best is 56 by Waterloo East, 1965-72; 56 without a loss; 55 straight wins;
8-player – 26 by Adair Casey, 2000-02

CURRENT LONGEST REGULAR SEASON WIN STREAK (post-season not included)
Streak/Team (Class) Last Loss
32 Clear Lake (3A) 21-7 to Waverly-Shell Rock, Sept. 21, 2007
31 North Tama, Traer (A) 13-12 to Lisbon, Sept. 28, 2007
28 Emmetsburg (1A) 35-28 to Eagle Grove, Oct. 19, 2007
27 Iowa City, City (4A) 20-3 to Cedar Falls, Oct. 19, 2007 (2-1-A-8)
25 West Branch (1A) 39-20 to Wilton, Sept. 5, 2008
23 Lenox (8) 32-28 to Lamoni, Sept. 19. 2008
22 North Fayette (2A) 22-21 to Sumner-Fredericksburg,Sept. 26, 2008
21 Dowling Catholic, WDM (4A) 41-28 to Southeast Polk, Oct. 3, 2008
State All Time Best is 66 by Harlan, first game 1985 to last game 1992;
8-Player – 39 by Adair-Casey, 2000-05

CURRENT LONGEST DISTRICT/CONFERENCE WINS STREAK (post-season not included)
Streak/ Team (Class) Last Loss
56 Harlan (3A) 24-21 (OT) to Atlantic, Nov. 1, 2002
34 Saint Albert, Co. Bluffs (1A) 20-0 to Logan-Magnolia, Sept. 15, 2006
33 Bishop Heelan, Sx City (3A) 28-13 to Spencer, Sept. 22, 2006
29 Solon (2A) 25-18 to Monticello, Oct. 20, 2006
28 Iowa City, City (4A) 20-3 to Cedar Falls, Oct. 19, 2007 (2-1-A-8)
26 Madrid (A) 28-20 to Earlham, Oct. 13, 2006
26 Clear Lake (3A) 21-7 to Waverly-Shell Rock, Sept. 21, 2007
22 North Tama (A) 13-12 to Lisbon, Sept. 28, 2007
22 Emmetsburg (1A) 35-28 to Eagle Grove, Oct. 19, 2007
21 West Branch (1A) 7-0 to Pekin, Oct. 19, 2007
State Best is 64 by Emmetsburg, 1995-2004 & Dowling Catholic, WDM – DM Metro Conference, 1967-1977;
8-Player – 29 by Adair-Casey, 2000-05

Longest Unbeaten Streak (34 or more, may include play-off teams)
11-player
56 – East Waterloo (next to last game in 1965 (tie); last game of ’65 thru ’71: 56 without a loss; 55 all wins)
49 – Harlan Community, first game 2003 – 2006 (to quarterfinals of play-offs)
47 – Dowling Catholic, WDM, last 3 games of 1966 to the final (ninth game) of 1971 (one tie)
47 – Anamosa, 1937 through 1945 (need the exact dates)
44 – Ankeny, last four games 1932 through first game in 1938
42 – Solon, 2007 season to Sept. 3, 2010
40 – Mount Pleasant, 1957 (third game) – 1961 (seventh game)
39 – Crestland, Early, last 2 games of 1967 through the first game of 1972
38 – Roland-Story, second game in 1979 through the 1982 play-offs.
38 – Central Lyon, from fourth game 1974 through second game 1978
37 – Cedar Rapids Jefferson, 1963-67 (2 ties)
36 – West Branch, first game 1991 to quarterfinals of play-offs 1993
36 – Bettendorf, first game 1987 to semifinals of play-offs 1989
34 – Wapsie Valley, 1986-1988

8-Player (25 or more)
25 – Stanton, 2007 to the 2008 semifinals
25 – Adair-Casey, last three regular season games of 2000 to play-offs semifinals of 2002

Longest Regular Season Unbeaten Streak (35 or more-no post season)
11-player
66 – Harlan Community, first game 1985 to last game in 1992
62 – West Branch, last 7 games 1990 through first game 1997
56 – East Waterloo (next to last game in 1965 (tie); last game of ’65 thru ’71: 56 without a loss; 55 all wins)
51 – Madrid, last 6 games in 1994 through 1999
47 – Dowling Catholic, WDM, last 3 games of 1966 to the final (ninth game) of 1971 (one tie)
46 – Harlan Community, 2003 – second game 2008
44 – Ogden, last seven games in 1980 through 1984 season
44 – Roland-Story, second game 1979 through 1984
44 – Ankeny, last four games 1932 through first game in 1938
41 – Wapsie Valley, 1986-90
40 – Mount Pleasant, 1957 (third game) – 1961 (seventh game)
40 – Emmetsburg, third game 1977 to second game 1982
40 – Emmetsburg, last four games in 1995 thru 1999
39 – Crestland, Early, last 2 games of 1967 through the first game of 1972
36 – North Fayette, West Union, 2004 – 2007
36 – Emmetsburg, last two games, 1982 to second game 1987

8-player (26 or more)
39 – Adair-Casey, last three regular season games, 2000 through 2005 opener
30 – Stanton from Oct. 6, 2006 to Aug. 27, 2010
26 – Aurelia, last game 2001 to eighth game 2004

Longest Conference or District Win Streak (40 or more)
11-player
64 – Emmetsburg, 1995 (last 4) – through first six in 2004
64 – Dowling Catholic, WDM, (Des Moines Metro Conference), 1967 to the second conference game in 1977
56 – Harlan Community, 2003 thru 2010 (in progress)
56 – Harlan, first conference game 1985 to final district game in 1992
54 – Madrid, last 6 district games 1994 through first four district games, 2001
53 – West Branch, 1990 conference season through the first 3 district games, 1997

8-player (25 or more)
29 – Adair Casey, last three 2000 through 2005 conference opener
24 – Stanton Oct. 6, 2006 to Oct. 1, 2010

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