Playoff Profile: Dubuque Senior
Name: Dubuque Senior
Class: 4A
Rank: 14
Record: 14-1
Conference: MVC
Conference Record: 9-1
It this point in time, Dubuque Senior is the most interesting team in 4A. With the 3rd best record in 4A, naturally many assume they are 3rd best team in 4A.
The good:
4-point home win over #5 (12-2) Cedar Falls in game 3
15-point home win over #12 (11-4) CR Jefferson in game 7
16-point road win over #24 (10-5) Pleasant Valley in game 11
The bad:
3-point road win over #35 (3-11) Dubuque Hempstead in game 8
3-point road win over #23 (6-9) CR Prairie in game 9
5-point road win over #32 (4-11) Waterloo East in game 12
1-point home win over #22 (6-9) Iowa City High in game 13
The ugly:
28-point home loss to 3A #8 (6-7) Dubuque Wahlert in game 10
Analysis:
Three good wins listed above all invite no criticism whatsoever. These wins indicate, at least, top-5 team, a team that will content for a title (maybe not the favorite, but a serious contender, nonetheless).
The problem is with the other 5 games listed. The typical distance between #1 and #10 is typically about 10-14 points. Sure, there are years when the distance between #1 and #2 is about 14 points (2010 Ames); however this is not the norm. For Senior to be a contender, these games against #20 to #35 need to routine double-digit wins. One exception is okay; however this is not the case with Senior.
And then we get to the 28-point home loss to Wahlert. On the week 5 rankings, Senior was #9 with an (8-0) record, not a solid contender, but they clearly had potential to be a contender. Pre-game, Senior was a 13-point favorite. Post-game, Senior fell to #15 and basically remain there to this day.
The 28-point number is a problem in itself. At best, a 28-point loss could be to the #1 team. Fine. But the problem remains that if you are going to be the champion, you will probably have to beat that team again, the one that previously beat you by 28 points. You may argue that it is hard to beat a team twice a year. However, it is 99+% probable that you will beat a team twice in a year, if you are truly a 28-point favorite.
The even worse reality is that Senior’s 28-point loss is to Wahlert, the 9th best team in the MVC. This ugly game has all the characteristics a revelation, the game in which Senior was confirmed to be a non-contender. Sure there were hints before this game, but this game was the end of doubt.
Outlook:
Senior has two big games in the next 9 games: 1/31 at Iowa City West and 2/07 at Marion Linn-Mar. Current outlook is for a 21-point loss to West and a 13-point loss to Linn-Mar.
For Senior to have a possibility of competing for a state title, and reverse the revelation of game 10, they need to have a 0 aggregate for these two games. For example, a 3-point loss to West and a 3-point win over Linn-Mar would be a 0 aggregate.
Current outlook is for a 17.5-3.5 finish, 17.5 wins, 3.5 losses. Computer is projecting wins against Hempstead and Washington, losses to Iowa City West and Linn-Mar, and coin-flip games against Wahlert and Xavier.
What are your thoughts?