Notes:
1. Implied state seeding is based on: 1) current records and 2) assumption that the substate favorite wins.
2. In this model, #2, #3, #5, #6 ranked teams are scheduled to be on the lower half of the bracket. Parity of #3-#6 will create much more congestion for #2 Iowa City West to overcome.
3. Ankeny gets all positive biases: 8th seeded Senior is actually ranked #12, 5th seeded Hoover is actually ranked #7; Iowa City West has one team with a negative bias: 7th seeded Sioux City East is actually ranked #5.
4A
Sd Rk Team Prob
1 1 Ankeny 0.500
10 Des Moines Roosevelt 0.003
8 12 Dubuque Senior 0.002
16 Eldridge North Scott 0.001
4 4 Marion Linn-Mar 0.061
14 Cedar Rapids Kennedy 0.001
5 7 Des Moines Hoover 0.023
8 Waukee 0.007
3 3 Cedar Falls 0.077
17 CR Jefferson 0.000
6 6 WDM Valley 0.043
13 Johnston 0.001
2 2 Iowa City West 0.218
19 Bettendorf 0.000
7 5 Sioux City East 0.062
33 CB Lewis Central 0.000