02/25 BBB 4A Championship Probabilities


Notes:

1. Implied state seeding is based on: 1) current records and 2) assumption that the substate favorite wins.

2. In this model, #2, #3, #5, #6 ranked teams are scheduled to be on the lower half of the bracket. Parity of #3-#6 will create much more congestion for #2 Iowa City West to overcome.

3. Ankeny gets all positive biases: 8th seeded Senior is actually ranked #12, 5th seeded Hoover is actually ranked #7; Iowa City West has one team with a negative bias: 7th seeded Sioux City East is actually ranked #5.

4A
Sd Rk Team                    Prob
 1  1 Ankeny                 0.500
   10 Des Moines Roosevelt   0.003
 8 12 Dubuque Senior         0.002
   16 Eldridge North Scott   0.001
 4  4 Marion Linn-Mar        0.061
   14 Cedar Rapids Kennedy   0.001
 5  7 Des Moines Hoover      0.023
    8 Waukee                 0.007
 3  3 Cedar Falls            0.077
   17 CR Jefferson           0.000
 6  6 WDM Valley             0.043
   13 Johnston               0.001
 2  2 Iowa City West         0.218
   19 Bettendorf             0.000
 7  5 Sioux City East        0.062
   33 CB Lewis Central       0.000