1A Preview
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming season, based on the final 2011 computer rankings and the 2012 district memberships.
District rankings:
(All): average strength of all teams in the district
Parity:
0 = perfect randomness: all district games are coin-flips
1 = perfect prediction: all district games will be blowouts
(top4): average of the top 4 teams in the district, a measure of how well the district will fare in the playoffs.
R Dist (All) Parity (top4) 1 1A-03 93.68 0.520 101.33 2 1A-08 88.89 0.362 102.48 3 1A-07 86.09 0.576 92.81 4 1A-06 85.05 0.224 105.64 5 1A-04 84.50 0.309 100.06 6 1A-02 84.04 0.406 95.32 7 1A-05 73.83 0.352 87.77 8 1A-01 70.88 0.264 102.09
District previews:
1A-1:
#6 Emmetsburg (12-1), #8 LeMars Gehlen (A #3 10-2 ), #17 Western Christian (2A #23 3-6), #20 South O’Brien (6-6)
Emmetsburg and Gehlen are the headliners from 2011. #55 Okoboji and #56 NSK-AR bring down the overall preason ranking. Okoboji did not field a team in 2011, while NSK-AR is a new team to 1A. Both NSK and A-R fielded 8-man teams in 2011. Due to the new status of both teams, the computer assigned both teams a 0 initial ranking, artificially lowering the districts overall ranking.
1A-2:
#7 St Edmond (2A 9-2) #18 IKM-Manning (6-4), #23 Manson Northwest Webster (7-5), #30 Sioux Central (6-4)
This seems to be one of the weaker districts in the state; the top 4 teams average a 95.3 rankings. St Edmonds is coming down from 2A with a playoff win in 2011.
1A-3:
#3 Aplington-Parkersburg (10-2), #11 Dike-New Hartford (8-3), #19 Hudson (5-5), #24 Nashua-Plainfield (7-4)
District 3 is believed to be the strongest district: the weakest team from last year is #38 South Hamilton. Additionally, this district has the 2nd highest parity. Put together, this means there will be a lot of great matchups this fall.
1A-4:
#4 St Ansgar (12-2), #14 South Winneshiek (2A 9-2), #16 North Fayette (2A 7-3), #32 Denver (2A 3-6)
The defending champs, St Angar, welcome a trio of 2A teams to 1A district 4.
1A-5:
#9 Alburnett (11-1), #21 Bellevue (7-3), #27 Maquoketa Valley (5-4), #44 North Cedar (6-4)
For a team to get into the playoffs, this seems to be the easiest road: the top 4 teams average a 87.77 team ranking.
1A-6:
#1 IC Regina (2A 14-0), #10 West Branch (10-3), #11 Wilton (2A 8-3), #40 Sigourney-Keota (2A 4-5)
The defending 2A champions, Regina, find themselves in the best proving-grounds in 2A: the top 4 teams in this district have a 105.64 rating. West Branch seeks a 5th consecutive playoff semifinal berth.
1A-7:
#13 DM Christian (9-2), #15 Pella Christian (2A 7-3), #26 Ogden (4-6) #29 Van Meter (A 5-5)
District 7 is #1 in parity at 0.576, meaning a lot of competitive games are expected in this district. Almost all teams most likely have high hopes for a playoff spot, as the top 4 teams have a generally low 92.81 team strength.
1A-8:
#2 St Albert (13-1), #5 Panorama (10-1), #22 Treynor (6-4), #31 Tri-Center (6-4)
St Albert, runner up in 2011, seeks to return to a title in 2012. A solid set of district opponents should give them good preparation. Panorama moves to a much better district than 2011; they should have no playoff overconfidence in 2012.