2A Preview
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming season, based on the final 2011 computer rankings and the 2012 district memberships.
District rankings:
(All): average strength of all teams in the district
Parity:
0 = perfect randomness: all district games are coin-flips
1 = perfect prediction: all district games will be blowouts
(top4): average of the top 4 teams in the district, a measure of how well the district will fare in the playoffs.
R Dist (All) Parity (top4) 1 2A-01 97.96 0.439 109.702 2 2A-02 96.48 0.385 110.025 3 2A-07 92.69 0.221 106.127 4 2A-06 89.85 0.446 100.300 5 2A-04 87.90 0.511 96.580 6 2A-03 87.28 0.308 104.048 7 2A-05 75.43 0.276 92.050 8 2A-08 74.30 0.273 93.713
District previews:
2A-1:
#6 Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley (3A 11-1), #8 Central Lyon CL-G-LR (7-4), #12 Sheldon (6-4), #14 MOC-Floyd Valley (3A 5-5)
A couple of 3A teams are coming down to 2A in district 1. Based on all district teams, the computer believes that this district is the best.
2A-2:
#1 Spirit Lake (13-1), #11 South Central Calhoun (9-2), #13 Garner-Hayfield-Ventura (1A 4-5), #17 Clarion-Goldfield (7-5)
2A defending champion Regina is in 1A this year. Thus, last year’s #2 Spirit Lake starts the year in the top sport. District 2 is ranked #2 in overall strength, and #1 based on the strength of the top 4 teams. With the addition of Ventura, Garner-Hayfield moves up to 2A.
2A-3:
#4 La Porte City Union (3A 12-2), #15 New Hampton (7-3), #16 Osage (6-4), #24 Waukon (3A 2-7)
Union, 2011 Class 3A Champion, drops down to be the favorite in 2A district 3.
2A-4:
#3 Dyersville Beckman (11-2), #23 Center Point-Urbana (3A 4-6), #32 Mount Vernon (3A 2-7), #33 Cascade (2A 5-5)
Beckman returns from a 2011 semifinal appearance to lead the District 4 preseason rankings. Center Point Urbana and Mount Vernon come down from Class 3A to challenge. Computer sees a lot of competitive games as this district has the top parity ranking.
2A-5:
#10 Mediapolis (11-1), #22 Wellman Mid-Prairie (6-4), #27 West Liberty (7-4), #43 Louisa-Muscatine (4-6)
Mediapolis returns as the leader of 2A district 5.
2A-6:
#5 Prairie City-Monroe (11-1), #21 Baxter CMB (6-4), #26 Bondurant-Farrar (4-6), #28 Davis County (6-4)
PC-M starts are the preseason favorite in district 6. This district has the 2nd highest parity score: a lot of good games are expected.
2A-7:
#2 West Marshall (12-1), #7 Alleman North Polk (8-3), #20 Roland-Story (5-4), #36 Nevada (3A 3-6)
2011 semifinalist West Marshall starts as the preseason favorite in the 3rd ranked district 7. District 7 is one of only two districts with two preseason top 10’s: #2 West Marshall and #7 North Polk. Nevada comes down from 3A to challenge.
2A-8:
#9 Carroll Kuemper (10-2), #29 Clarinda (6-4), #30 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG (7-3), #35 Jefferson JSPC (6-4)
Kuemper leads the preseason 2A district 8 rankings.