Weekly 4A FB Report
Rankings
R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Iowa City West MVC ( 1- 0) 155.88 1W 120.88 ( 18) 49.00 ( 2) 14.00 ( 11)
2 WDM Dowling 4A-3 ( 2- 0) 152.58 2W 132.08 ( 7) 34.50 ( 15) 14.00 ( 14)
3 Ankeny 4A-2 ( 1- 0) 150.12 1W 130.69 ( 10) 49.00 ( 3) 14.00 ( 8)
4 WDM Valley 4A-1 ( 2- 0) 145.17 2W 117.91 ( 23) 36.00 ( 13) 10.50 ( 7)
5 Cedar Falls MVC ( 1- 0) 140.91 1W 126.91 ( 13) 28.00 ( 21) 14.00 ( 9)
6 Bettendorf MAC ( 1- 0) 139.84 1W 131.84 ( 8) 36.00 ( 14) 28.00 ( 25)
7 Johnston 4A-2 ( 1- 1) 133.50 1W 130.99 ( 9) 27.00 ( 22) 24.50 ( 23)
8 Eldridge North Scott MAC ( 0- 1) 131.40 1L 139.40 ( 5) 28.00 ( 19) 36.00 ( 34)
9 Marshalltown 4A-3 ( 1- 1) 131.12 1W 128.84 ( 11) 22.50 ( 23) 28.00 ( 28)
10 Southeast Polk 4A-4 ( 0- 1) 130.66 1L 153.01 ( 2) 12.00 ( 39) 35.00 ( 33)
11 Iowa City High MVC ( 0- 1) 127.34 1L 141.34 ( 4) 14.00 ( 35) 28.00 ( 27)
12 Urbandale 4A-1 ( 1- 0) 127.18 1W 99.18 ( 31) 42.00 ( 7) 14.00 ( 12)
13 CR Xavier MVC ( 1- 0) 126.77 1W 92.94 ( 35) 48.00 ( 4) 7.00 ( 6)
14 CR Washington MVC ( 1- 0) 126.24 1W 115.24 ( 26) 17.00 ( 32) 6.00 ( 2)
15 Waterloo East MVC ( 1- 0) 121.22 1W 95.22 ( 32) 40.00 ( 9) 14.00 ( 13)
16 Waukee 4A-4 ( 0- 1) 120.73 1L 144.73 ( 3) 21.00 ( 24) 45.00 ( 43)
Review
Top 16 results
Pre = pregame prediction
Post = postgame prediction
Act = actual game margin
08/24 Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 6 Bettendorf 36 4A 8 Eldridge North Scott 28 -18.78 -8.00 -8 4A 21 CR Kennedy 6 4A 14 CR Washington 17 6.58 11.00 11 4A 34 Dubuque Hempstead 7 4A 13 CR Xavier 48 20.05 33.83 41 4A 11 Iowa City High 14 4A 5 Cedar Falls 28 -0.11 14.00 14 4A 1 Iowa City West 49 4A 17 Marion Linn-Mar 14 12.05 -35.00 -35 4A 7 Johnston 38 4A 24 Des Moines Lincoln 15 11.92 -23.65 -23 3A 26 Pella 7 4A 9 Marshalltown 31 -3.26 24.00 24 4A 10 Southeast Polk 12 4A 2 WDM Dowling 35 -12.58 22.35 23 4A 12 Urbandale 42 4A 30 Fort Dodge 14 -13.81 -28.00 -28 4A 4 WDM Valley 45 4A 16 Waukee 21 -16.56 -24.00 -24 4A 15 Waterloo East 40 4A 32 Dubuque Wahlert 14 4.63 -26.00 -26
Preview
Top 16 games
Date Cl Rk (W-L) Visitor Cl Rk (W-L) Home Line Prob 08/30 4A 13 (1-0) CR Xavier 4A 41 (0-1) CR Jefferson -39.97 98% 08/31 4A 10 (0-1) Southeast Polk 4A 25 (2-0) Ames -20.57 85% 08/31 4A 24 (0-1) Des Moines Lincoln 4A 3 (1-0) Ankeny 41.71 98% 08/31 4A 28 (0-1) Davenport Central 4A 6 (1-0) Bettendorf 33.48 95% 08/31 4A 8 (0-1) Eldridge North Scott 4A 31 (1-0) Clinton -34.96 96% 08/31 4A 35 (0-1) Waterloo West 4A 11 (0-1) Iowa City High 36.05 96% 08/31 4A 14 (1-0) CR Washington 4A 1 (1-0) Iowa City West 30.64 94% 08/31 4A 16 (0-1) Waukee 4A 9 (1-1) Marshalltown 11.39 72% 08/31 4A 44 (1-1) Des Moines Hoover 4A 12 (1-0) Urbandale 53.25 100% 08/31 4A 2 (2-0) WDM Dowling 4A 4 (2-0) WDM Valley -6.41 63% 08/31 4A 5 (1-0) Cedar Falls 4A 15 (1-0) Waterloo East -18.68 82%
Notes
1. Iowa City High @ Cedar Falls was clearly the highlight game of week 1. Cedar Fall’s 14-point spread was about 14 points better than the approximate 0 pre-game spread. #5 Cedar Falls follows up this opening game by going on the road to visit #15 Waterloo East.
2. #15 Waterloo East, now 1-0, was a 5-point underdog at Wahlert. However, the computer was clearly underestimating East, as they overperformed by about 31 points and won 40 to 14. Big test awaits in week 2 as #5 Cedar Falls comes to town.
3. Iowa City West was the big overperformer of week 1. Using 2011 data, West was expected to lose at Linn-Mar by 12. However, 2011 is long gone; West won by 35 and overperformed by 47 points. Based on this great performance, the computer model now ranks West #1 in 4A.
4. Johnston Dragons were a 12-point underdog at Des Moines Lincoln. Johnston won 38-15, and the computer moves them up to #7. Johnston is now 1-1 with a win over #24 Lincoln and a week 0 loss to #2 Dowling.
5. #2 WDM Dowling was also a big winner in week 1. 13-point underdogs to last week’s #1 Southeast Polk, Dowling won at home 35-12.
Game of the week:
#2 Dowling (2-0) at #4 Valley (2-0). Dowling has wins over #7 Johnston (1-0) and #10 Southeast Polk (0-1). Game will be Valley’s first home game after road wins over (1-1) Ottumwa and (0-1) Waukee. Computer thinks Dowling is a 6-point favorite.