3A Preview
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming season, based on the final 2011 computer rankings and the 2012 district memberships.
District rankings:
(All): average strength of all teams in the district
Parity:
0 = perfect randomness: all district games are coin-flips
1 = perfect prediction: all district games will be blowouts
(top4): average of the top 4 teams in the district, a measure of how well the district will fare in the playoffs.
R Dist (All) Parity (top4) 1 3A-01 104.17 0.428 114.82 2 3A-03 101.49 0.405 112.88 3 3A-05 100.90 0.375 113.97 4 3A-08 100.30 0.446 112.44 5 3A-06 98.58 0.338 112.17 6 3A-02 97.85 0.454 107.79 7 3A-04 92.42 0.448 104.42 8 3A-07 91.52 0.404 105.47
District previews:
3A-1:
#2 Adel ADM (12-1), #12 Creston C-O-M (8-2), #14 Harlan (9-4), #22 Lewis Central (3-5)
ADM headlines Class 3A District 1 in the overall best district in the state. Both ADM and Harlan were semifinalists in 2011; District 1 is the only such district in 3A.
3A-2:
#8 Heelan (8-2), #11 Carroll (8-3), #27 Spencer (5-7), #31 Denison-Schleswig (5-4)
Heelan and Carroll are expected to be closely matched at the top of district 2. District 2 leads 3A in parity: a lot of competitive games are expected.
3A-3:
#3 Webster City (9-2), #6 Clear Lake (10-1), #16 Waverly-Shell Rock (7-3), #34 Iowa Falls-Alden (2A 5-4)
Webster City and Clear Lake headline district 3, top 10 teams.
3A-4:
#13 Grinnell (8-3), #20 Newton (5-4), #28 Boone (5-5), #32 Ballard (5-5)
Grinnell leads district 4. District has a very high parity score: a lot of competitive games are expected.
3A-5:
#4 West Delaware (10-2), #5 Decorah (11-3), #23 Western Dubuque (6-4), #24 Oelwein (6-4)
Top 10’s West Delaware and Decorah are expect to battle for supremacy of district 5. Decorah was a finalist in 2011, losing to Union by 7.
3A-6:
#1 Maquoketa (10-2), #9 Solon (9-2), #25 Central Clinton (4-5), #30 Marion (4-5)
Maquoketa begins the preseason ranking in the #1 position.
3A-7:
#15 Keokuk (7-3), #18 Washington (5-5), #21 Williamsburg (6-4), #33 Fairfield (5-5)
Keokuk, Washington, and Williamsburg are expected to lead district 7.
3A-8:
#7 Pella (10-2), #10 Norwalk (9-2), #17 Carlisle (7-3), #19 Oskaloosa (8-3)
Pella and Norwalk are expect to battle for the 3A district 8 crown. This district has a very high parity score: a lot of competitive games are expected.