A Player Preview
Here are some thoughts on the upcoming season, based on the final 2011 computer rankings and the 2012 district memberships.
District rankings:
(All): average strength of all teams in the district
Parity:
0 = perfect randomness: all district games are coin-flips
1 = perfect prediction: all district games will be blowouts
(top4): average of the top 4 teams in the district, a measure of how well the district will fare in the playoffs.
R Dist (All) Parity (top4) 1 A-1 84.29 0.445 96.23 2 A-3 77.64 0.344 93.95 3 A-2 73.44 0.286 93.50 4 A-4 73.11 0.418 83.88 5 A-7 72.93 0.339 89.38 6 A-8 71.19 0.240 98.30 7 A-6 61.98 0.328 81.42 8 A-5 59.32 0.190 88.68
District previews:
A-1: #6 Inwood West Lyon (1A 9-3), #9 Lawton-Bronson (1A 9-1), #17 Akron-Westfield (8-3), #19 Woodbury Central (7-4)
West Lyon and Lawton-Bronson drop down from 1A to lead district 1, believed to be the best in the state. District also leads in parity: a lot of high-profile, competitive games will be played every Friday.
A-2: #5 Britt West Hancock (12-2), #11 Mason City Newman (11-2), #21 Algona Garrigan (6-4), #23 Prairie Valley (1A 5-5)
West Hancock leads district 2. Newman is expected to challenge. Prairie Valley drops down from 1A.
A-3: #8 Wapsie Valley (1A 9-2), #10 Turkey Valley (1A 8-3), #16 Arlington Starmont (1A 7-3), #26 Green North Butler (5-5)
A trio of 1A teams drop down to A to headline district 3.
A-4: #12 Gladbrook-Reinbeck (1A 8-2), #18 Traer North Tama (9-2), #30 Marengo Iowa Valley (6-4), #31 Grundy Center (6-4)
Gladbrook-Reinbeck drops down from 1A to lead district 4. Based on a strong district parity score, a lot of competitive games will be played this fall.
A-5: #4 Lisbon (14-0), #7 Lone Tree (10-2), #33 Wayland WACO (7-3), #38 Riverside Highland (1A 3-6)
Lisbon, last year’s undefeated champion, and Lone Tree headline district 5. Riverside Highland drops down from 1A to challenge.
A-6: #14 Lynnville-Sully (8-3), #15 Brooklyn BGM (8-3), #22 Packwood Pekin (1A 5-5), #47 Pleasantville (1A 2-7)
Lynnville-Sully and Brooklyn BGM are expected to battle for the district 6 crown. Pekin and Pleasantville drop down from 1A to challenge.
A-7: #2 Woodward-Granger (1A 10-1), #13 Madrid (10-3), #24 Bedford (9-3), #34 Earlham (7-5)
Woodward-Granger drops down from 1A to headline district 2. 2011 finalist Madrid looks to challenge.
A-8: #1 East Mills (8 10-2), #3 Logan-Magnolia (1A 10-2), #25 Griswold (1A 5-4), #28 Underwood (1A 4-5)
East Mills moves up from the 8-player league to challenge the 1A trio of Logan-Magnolia, Griswold, and Underwood. Computer may be structurally overestimating East Mills a bit; time will tell.