Iowa High School Boys Football
Weekly 4A FB Report
Rankings
R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Ankeny 4A-2 ( 3- 0) 210.35 3W 181.66 ( 7) 46.67 ( 7) 23.00 ( 12)
2 WDM Dowling 4A-3 ( 3- 1) 208.68 1L 193.29 ( 1) 31.00 ( 15) 17.50 ( 8)
3 Pleasant Valley MAC ( 3- 0) 201.32 3W 159.98 ( 34) 49.33 ( 3) 6.67 ( 1)
4 CR Xavier MVC ( 3- 0) 199.34 3W 158.01 ( 36) 48.33 ( 5) 7.00 ( 2)
5 Sioux City East 4A-1 ( 2- 1) 194.79 2W 171.22 ( 23) 53.33 ( 1) 23.67 ( 15)
6 Iowa City West MVC ( 3- 0) 192.70 3W 160.30 ( 33) 48.67 ( 4) 21.67 ( 11)
7 Urbandale 4A-1 ( 3- 0) 192.23 3W 155.32 ( 43) 45.00 ( 8) 16.67 ( 5)
8 Southeast Polk 4A-4 ( 2- 1) 191.19 2W 193.02 ( 2) 29.00 ( 17) 23.00 ( 13)
9 Cedar Falls MVC ( 3- 0) 190.37 3W 176.62 ( 12) 29.67 ( 16) 16.67 ( 4)
10 Bettendorf MAC ( 3- 0) 190.22 3W 159.69 ( 35) 37.00 ( 9) 14.00 ( 3)
11 WDM Valley 4A-1 ( 2- 2) 189.97 2L 183.01 ( 6) 24.00 ( 26) 19.00 ( 10)
12 Davenport Assumption MAC ( 2- 1) 185.33 1W 169.11 ( 26) 23.33 ( 28) 17.33 ( 6)
13 Muscatine MAC ( 3- 0) 184.88 3W 156.27 ( 41) 46.67 ( 6) 17.33 ( 7)
14 Iowa City High MVC ( 2- 1) 182.56 2W 175.67 ( 16) 33.67 ( 12) 24.33 ( 18)
15 Johnston 4A-2 ( 1- 2) 181.64 1L 188.33 ( 3) 24.00 ( 27) 26.67 ( 22)
16 Ames 4A-2 ( 2- 1) 180.83 1L 167.24 ( 30) 34.67 ( 11) 33.67 ( 37)
Review
Top 16 results
Pre = pregame prediction
Post = postgame prediction
Act = actual game margin
09/06 Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 10 Bettendorf 40 4A 40 Davenport West 0 -51.70 -39.75 -40 4A 6 Iowa City West 35 4A 27 CR Kennedy 14 -38.51 -31.91 -21 4A 5 Sioux City East 84 4A 30 Sioux City North 26 -21.75 -38.50 -58 09/07 Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 1 Ankeny 35 4A 2 WDM Dowling 28 4.45 -2.10 -7 4A 12 Davenport Assumption 42 4A 33 Eldridge North Scott 11 19.36 -30.78 -31 4A 38 Burlington 7 4A 13 Muscatine 49 41.31 32.97 42 4A 9 Cedar Falls 31 4A 22 CR Washington 16 -14.19 -19.49 -15 4A 44 Davenport North 7 4A 3 Pleasant Valley 58 50.34 57.61 51 4A 15 Johnston 18 4A 7 Urbandale 31 -17.16 10.16 13 4A 11 WDM Valley 17 4A 8 Southeast Polk 28 -6.14 0.78 11 4A 18 Waterloo East 26 4A 14 Iowa City High 38 -0.57 5.71 12 4A 4 CR Xavier 48 4A 20 CR Prairie 14 -17.11 -27.47 -34
Preview
Top 16 games
Date Cl Rk (W-L) Visitor Cl Rk (W-L) Home Line Prob 09/13 4A 40 (0-3) Davenport West 4A 12 (2-1) Davenport Assumption 33.99 95% 09/14 4A 21 (2-2) Marshalltown 4A 16 (2-1) Ames 9.04 67% 09/14 4A 8 (2-1) Southeast Polk 4A 1 (3-0) Ankeny 18.72 81% 09/14 4A 3 (3-0) Pleasant Valley 4A 10 (3-0) Bettendorf -11.53 71% 09/14 4A 14 (2-1) Iowa City High 4A 35 (1-2) CR Jefferson -30.25 92% 09/14 4A 36 (1-2) Dubuque Wahlert 4A 4 (3-0) CR Xavier 46.72 99% 09/14 4A 29 (1-2) Waterloo West 4A 9 (3-0) Cedar Falls 30.16 92% 09/14 4A 13 (3-0) Muscatine 4A 34 (1-2) Clinton -31.84 93% 09/14 4A 20 (2-1) CR Prairie 4A 6 (3-0) Iowa City West 19.97 83% 09/14 4A 17 (2-1) Waukee 4A 15 (1-2) Johnston 4.60 59% 09/14 4A 28 (2-1) Sioux City West 4A 5 (2-1) Sioux City East 34.15 95% 09/14 4A 7 (3-0) Urbandale 4A 2 (3-1) WDM Dowling 16.01 78%
Notes
Bias:
Rankings are non biased by regional parity assumptions: average of all teams in 4A Western Iowa = average of all teams in MAC = average of all teams in MVC. Because of this change in bias, many changes are to be expected.
Accuracy:
Computer model is still gaining accuracy. Accuracy will generally continue to increase until week 4 predictions are published.
Western Iowa:
In a thriller, #1 Ankeny wins at #2 West Des Moines Dowling 35-28. They next travel to #8 Southeast Polk, a 28-17 winnner over #11 West Des Moines Valley. Valley is now 2-2, a rough start for the 2011 state champions. Ankeny is currently a 14-point home favorite over Southeast Polk.
#7 Urbandale (3-0) goes to #2 (3-1) WDM Dowling in another top 10 matchup. Urbandale won a 31-18 contest against #15 Johnston and moved up from #19 in week 2 to #7 in this week’s rankings.
#5 Sioux City East moves up from #17 after a 58-point win over Sioux City North. East’s lone loss was a 10-point downer to 3A #1 Heelan. East faces Sioux city West as a 33-point home favorite.
MVC:
The headliner news in the MVC is the recent rise of #4 CR Xavier (3-0). With 30+ point wins over all opponents, the computer thinks Xavier has not yet been in a competitive game. Their best win is a 34-point win over #20 CR Prairie. October 12 road game against current #9 (3-0) Cedar Falls will undoubtedly be a good test. #6 Iowa City West is not on the schedule.
#6 Iowa City West (3-0) continues to cruise with another 20+ point win. This week’s home game with #20 CR Prairie could be competitive; West is a 20-point favorite (week 0 – week4 predictions are still gaining accuracy).
#9 Cedar Falls (3-0) has definitely played the most quality schedule of the three. Cedar Falls has wins over #14 Iowa City High, #18 Waterloo East, and #22 CR Washington. Cedar Falls is a 30-point favorite at home against #29 Waterloo West.
MAC:
#3 Pleasant Valley (3-0), last week’s #7, continues to impress. Their biggest win continues to be a 34-point beating of #12 Assumption win in week 2. MAC showdown with #10 (3-0) Bettendorf happens next in Bettendorf. Bettendorf has a big 21-point victory over #19 Davenport Central. An opening-week 8-point win over #33 (1-2) North Scott may be a cause for concern. Computer thinks Pleaseant Valley is a 11-point favorite.