Weekly 4A FB Report
Iowa High School Boys Football
Rankings
R Team Conf ( W- L) Mod Str Sched Rank Off Ave Def Ave
1 Ankeny 4A-2 ( 7- 0) 204.25 7W 174.77 ( 4) 46.00 ( 3) 18.14 ( 9)
2 Pleasant Valley MAC ( 7- 0) 201.22 7W 157.21 ( 36) 42.29 ( 5) 7.86 ( 1)
3 WDM Dowling 4A-3 ( 5- 2) 195.75 2W 176.91 ( 1) 33.43 ( 13) 17.29 ( 6)
4 Southeast Polk 4A-4 ( 5- 2) 195.34 3W 175.79 ( 2) 35.71 ( 12) 17.00 ( 5)
5 Iowa City West MVC ( 7- 0) 193.87 7W 158.27 ( 33) 52.29 ( 1) 18.14 ( 10)
6 CR Xavier MVC ( 7- 0) 192.66 7W 150.83 ( 43) 45.29 ( 4) 8.86 ( 2)
7 Urbandale 4A-1 ( 5- 2) 185.71 2L 164.93 ( 12) 36.57 ( 9) 21.71 ( 13)
8 WDM Valley 4A-1 ( 5- 2) 185.07 3W 174.17 ( 5) 29.43 ( 19) 17.86 ( 8)
9 Sioux City East 4A-1 ( 6- 1) 181.29 6W 159.45 ( 30) 46.71 ( 2) 14.00 ( 3)
10 Muscatine MAC ( 6- 1) 179.31 1W 160.07 ( 29) 38.57 ( 8) 22.29 ( 14)
11 Marshalltown 4A-3 ( 5- 2) 177.69 4W 161.06 ( 25) 39.86 ( 7) 23.00 ( 18)
12 Waukee 4A-4 ( 5- 2) 176.81 1W 166.73 ( 10) 36.29 ( 11) 28.86 ( 27)
13 Davenport Assumption MAC ( 5- 2) 173.71 1L 163.88 ( 15) 29.29 ( 20) 19.00 ( 11)
14 Johnston 4A-2 ( 3- 4) 173.29 2W 175.46 ( 3) 26.57 ( 23) 26.71 ( 25)
15 Bettendorf MAC ( 5- 2) 172.82 2W 157.60 ( 35) 31.86 ( 16) 17.43 ( 7)
16 Cedar Falls MVC ( 7- 0) 171.38 7W 156.67 ( 37) 29.86 ( 18) 15.14 ( 4)
Review
Top 16 results
Pre = pregame prediction
Post = postgame prediction
Act = actual game margin
10/04 Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 10 Muscatine 38 4A 13 Davenport Assumption 21 -1.04 -4.92 -17 4A 7 Urbandale 21 4A 9 Sioux City East 27 0.63 -3.73 6 10/05 Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 1 Ankeny 63 4A 26 Sioux City North 13 -44.91 -44.40 -50 4A 36 Burlington 0 4A 15 Bettendorf 37 25.57 25.50 37 4A 23 Davenport Central 12 4A 2 Pleasant Valley 41 45.18 39.18 29 4A 21 Iowa City High 0 4A 5 Iowa City West 44 29.48 29.93 44 4A 14 Johnston 37 4A 33 Fort Dodge 0 -19.58 -21.82 -37 4A 34 Ottumwa 7 4A 3 WDM Dowling 41 44.43 47.04 34 4A 43 Sioux City West 14 4A 4 Southeast Polk 63 60.30 62.20 49 4A 8 WDM Valley 37 4A 31 Des Moines Lincoln 7 -27.29 -29.36 -30 4A 42 Dubuque Wahlert 0 4A 16 Cedar Falls 35 37.69 36.52 35 4A 27 Waterloo West 14 4A 6 CR Xavier 49 31.51 34.46 35 4A 12 Waukee 48 4A 18 Des Moines East 28 -5.33 -9.83 -20
Preview
Top 16 games
Date Cl Rk (W-L) Visitor Cl Rk (W-L) Home Line Prob 10/11 4A 15 (5-2) Bettendorf 4A 13 (5-2) Davenport Assumption 1.57 55% 10/11 4A 31 (2-5) Des Moines Lincoln 4A 9 (6-1) Sioux City East 26.95 99% 10/12 4A 33 (2-5) Fort Dodge 4A 1 (7-0) Ankeny 54.15 100% 10/12 4A 12 (5-2) Waukee 4A 35 (3-4) CB Lincoln -27.32 99% 10/12 4A 6 (7-0) CR Xavier 4A 16 (7-0) Cedar Falls -20.60 96% 10/12 4A 2 (7-0) Pleasant Valley 4A 32 (2-5) Clinton -47.88 100% 10/12 4A 3 (5-2) WDM Dowling 4A 45 (1-6) Des Moines Hoover -82.46 100% 10/12 4A 4 (5-2) Southeast Polk 4A 44 (1-6) Des Moines Roosevelt -70.52 100% 10/12 4A 40 (1-6) CR Jefferson 4A 5 (7-0) Iowa City West 56.18 100% 10/12 4A 46 (1-6) Des Moines North 4A 14 (3-4) Johnston 61.81 100% 10/12 4A 11 (5-2) Marshalltown 4A 37 (1-7) Mason City -31.02 100% 10/12 4A 20 (4-3) Eldridge North Scott 4A 10 (6-1) Muscatine 15.35 90% 10/12 4A 24 (5-3) Indianola 4A 7 (5-2) Urbandale 25.89 99% 10/12 4A 41 (3-4) CB Jefferson 4A 8 (5-2) WDM Valley 47.65 100%
Notes
Comments are welcome
Rankings are biased: average of all teams in Western Iowa = average of all teams in MVC = average of all teams in MAC.
Big Wins
#10 Muscatine continues to impress. One-point underdogs at #13 Davenport Assumption, the Muskies won big, 38-21.
#12 Waukee, a pregame 5-point road favorite, won 48-28 at #18 Des Moines East.
Escapes/Upsets
#9 Sioux City East was a pregame 1-point home favorite over #7 Urbandale. East won 27-21. However, the week 7 postgame analysis thinks Urbandale is a 4-point favorite at a possible rematch at East; thus yesterday’s game was an East upset of Urbandale.
Rankings Notes
Ankeny
Ankeny, formerly #2, switches places with Pleasant Valley as the new #1.
Central Iowa bias?
The bias of the model is: average of all teams in Western Iowa = average of all teams in MVC = average of all teams in MAC.
This bias can only be removed after the championship game. Thus the whole season is basically biased by a regional-parity assumption.
The Western Iowa reality is this: all roads lead to a set of 4-5 teams who are highly connected: the best play the best. Compare that to the MVC with its current 3 undefeated teams in a conference of 14 members.
Cedar Falls underestimated?
Cedar Falls owns a 1-point win over #27 (2-5) Waterloo West. This does not happen to top-10 teams.
If they beat CR Xavier by 14+ points, I retract my statement; they have potential. If they win by less, I think it should be considered an upset, and their future still remains unclear.
Sioux City East
East beats Urbandale by 6. Ultimately the computer is not particularly impressed.
They are currently a 4-point underdog at WDM Valley. If they win by 21+ points, I retract my view, they have potential. Anything less will be viewed as a normal victory over a hypothetical 6-3 WDM Valley team.
Dowling
Computer has no injury information. Thus fans have more insight than the computer model.
Game of the Week
#15 (5-2) Bettendorf travels to #13 (5-2) Assumption. Assumption is a 2-point favorite.