Championship probabilities
Notes:
1. The following are unbiased estimates.
2. To get a better estimate, we could replay the week-long state tournament for about 30 times in a row (I’m pretty clear that this will not happen ( 99.9999%)).
2A Sd Rnk Team Prob 1 3 Sheffield West Fork 0.255 8 33 Dike-New Hartford 0.002 4 8 Stanwood North Cedar 0.092 5 5 Monona MFL MarMac 0.114 2 13 Nodaway Valley 0.049 7 12 Carroll Kuemper 0.065 3 2 Sheldon 0.324 6 6 Pella Christian 0.099 1A Sd Rnk Team Prob 1 1 Danville 0.754 8 23 Wapsie Valley 0.000 4 3 Storm Lake St Mary 0.066 5 19 Oakland Riverside 0.000 2 6 Lone Tree 0.025 7 2 Boyden-Hull 0.147 3 10 Traer North Tama 0.008 6 25 Ankeny Christian 0.000