Championship probabilities
Notes:
1. The following are unbiased estimates.
2. To get a better estimate, we could replay the week-long state tournament for about 30 times in a row (I’m pretty clear that this will not happen ( 99.9999%)).
3A Sd Rnk Team Prob 1 3 Vinton-Shellsburg 0.104 8 8 Harlan 0.064 4 15 Grinnell 0.020 5 4 MOC-Floyd Valley 0.111 2 13 Dallas Center-Grimes 0.022 7 1 Davenport Assumption 0.524 3 5 Waverly-Shell Rock 0.071 6 2 Mount Pleasant 0.086 2A Sd Rnk Team Prob 1 3 Sheffield West Fork 0.254 8 33 Dike-New Hartford 0.002 4 8 Stanwood North Cedar 0.082 5 6 Monona MFL MarMac 0.119 2 13 Nodaway Valley 0.053 7 12 Carroll Kuemper 0.062 3 2 Sheldon 0.327 6 5 Pella Christian 0.102 1A Sd Rnk Team Prob 1 1 Danville 0.743 8 22 Wapsie Valley 0.001 4 3 Storm Lake St Mary 0.066 5 19 Oakland Riverside 0.000 2 6 Lone Tree 0.027 7 2 Boyden-Hull 0.156 3 10 Traer North Tama 0.007 6 25 Ankeny Christian 0.001