0. Playoff criteria
http://www.iahsaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/2014_Football_PostSeason_Manual.pdf
pages 2-3
1. Predictions:
1.1 Ballard-Grinell:
Ballard by 8.45 over Grinnell, 0.75437 probability
Grinnell wins by 1-11 points: 0.19775 probabilty
Grinnell wins by 12+ points: 0.047878 probabilty
1.2 Gilbert:
Gilbert by 35.54 over Benton, 0.99810 probabilty
Gilbert has a 0.99357 probabilty of a 5-point win (or more)
Gilbert has a 0.96682 probabilty of a 13-point win (or more)
1.3 Newton:
Newton by 26.24 over Nevada, 0.98372 probability
Newton has a 0.85959 probabilty of a 13-point win (or more)
2. Scenarios:
Note: Scenarios below explore 98.1% of possible outcomes. Other wild scenarios do exist.
Scenario 1: 74.068%
Scenario 2: 19.328%
Scenario 3: 4.701%
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Total: 98.097%
2.1 Scenario 1:
probability: 0.74068
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Ballard win, Grinnell loss: 0.75437
Gilbert win: 0.99810
Newton win: 0.98372
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1 Ballard (5-1) 32 to 44
2 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
3 Gilbert (4-2) 27 to 39
4 Newton (4-2) -02 to 10
5 Grinnell (3-3) -16 to -04
1 Ballard: least losses (I,1)
2 B-F: beat Gilbert and Newton (II,a)
3 Gilbert: beat Newton (II, a)
4 Newton: Remaining 4-2 team (II)
2.2 Scenario 2:
probability: 0.19328
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Grinnell beats Ballard by 1-11 points: 0.19775
Gilbert wins by 5+: 0.99357
Newton wins: 0.98372
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1 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
2 Gilbert (4-2) 31 to 39
3 Ballard (4-2) 20 to 30
4 Grinnell (4-2) 09 to 19
5 Newton (4-2) -2 to 10
1 B-F: points (II, b)
2 Gilbert: points (II, b)
3 Ballard: points (II, b)
4 Newton: head-to-head (V,1)
2.3 Scenario 3:
probability: 0.04701
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Grinnell beat Ballard by 12+ points: 0.047878 probability
Gilbert wins: 0.99810
Newton wins: 0.98372
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1 Bondurant-Farrar (4-2) 42
2 Gilbert (4-2) 27 to 39
3 Grinnell (4-2) 20 to 21
4 Ballard (4-2) 18 to 19
5 Newton (4-2) -2 to 10
1 B-F: points (II, b)
2 Gilbert: points (II, b)
3 Grinnell: points (II, b)
4 Newton: head-to-head (V,1)