2015/09/05 Weekly NCAA FB Report


NCAA Football

Weekly 1A FB Report

Rankings

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Florida St            Atla ( 1- 0) 204.36  1W 166.59 ( 43)  59.00 ( 15)  16.00 ( 58)
    2  Texas A&M             Sout ( 1- 0) 198.92  1W 177.92 ( 27)  38.00 ( 46)  17.00 ( 69)
    3  TCU                    Big ( 1- 0) 197.97  1W 191.97 (  9)  23.00 ( 84)  17.00 ( 65)
    4  Arkansas              Sout ( 1- 0) 196.44  1W 169.68 ( 37)  48.00 ( 29)  13.00 ( 47)
    5  Alabama               Sout ( 1- 0) 194.44  1W 176.44 ( 29)  35.00 ( 54)  17.00 ( 68)
    6  Georgia Tech          Atla ( 1- 0) 193.49  1W 136.55 ( 89)  69.00 (  4)   6.00 ( 24)
    7  Auburn                Sout ( 1- 0) 191.31  1W 184.31 ( 15)  31.00 ( 65)  24.00 ( 85)
    8  Oklahoma               Big ( 1- 0) 191.23  1W 154.31 ( 64)  41.00 ( 42)   3.00 ( 19)
    9  West Virginia          Big ( 1- 0) 190.96  1W 157.81 ( 56)  44.00 ( 39)   0.00 (  7)
   10  Kansas St              Big ( 1- 0) 190.37  1W 148.00 ( 75)  34.00 ( 60)   0.00 (  6)
   11  Georgia               Sout ( 1- 0) 190.00  1W 147.88 ( 76)  51.00 ( 22)  14.00 ( 53)
   12  Minnesota              Big ( 0- 1) 188.84  1L 194.84 (  4)  17.00 ( 94)  23.00 ( 76)
   13  Tennessee             Sout ( 1- 0) 188.77  1W 156.93 ( 59)  59.00 ( 13)  30.00 ( 91)
   14  Oregon                Paci ( 1- 0) 188.05  1W 163.05 ( 49)  61.00 ( 12)  42.00 (113)
   15  Baylor                 Big ( 1- 0) 187.92  1W 144.47 ( 81)  56.00 ( 17)  21.00 ( 75)
   16  UCLA                  Paci ( 1- 0) 187.30  1W 169.30 ( 39)  34.00 ( 57)  16.00 ( 62)

Review

Top 16 results

Pre = pregame prediction
Post = postgame prediction
Act = actual game margin


09/03

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1B  60 Alcorn St              6 1A   6 Georgia Tech          69  46.92  56.94  63
1A   3 TCU                   23 1A  12 Minnesota             17 -23.77  -6.00  -6

09/04

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1A  15 Baylor                56 1A 120 SMU                   21 -51.14 -43.45 -35

09/05

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1A  92 Akron                  3 1A   8 Oklahoma              41  32.33  36.92  38
1A  33 Arizona St            17 1A   2 Texas A&M             38  -2.45  21.00  21
1A  93 Bowling Green         30 1A  13 Tennessee             59  26.98  31.85  29
1B   6 Eastern Washington    42 1A  14 Oregon                61  42.16  25.00  19
1A  79 Georgia Southern       0 1A   9 West Virginia         44  13.79  33.15  44
1A 109 Louisiana-Monroe      14 1A  11 Georgia               51  39.95  42.12  37
1A  22 Louisville            24 1A   7 Auburn                31  10.99   7.00   7
1B  23 South Dakota           0 1A  10 Kansas St             34  45.94  42.37  34
1A  55 Texas St-San Marcos   16 1A   1 Florida St            59  26.69  37.78  43
1A  46 UTEP                  13 1A   4 Arkansas              48  31.52  26.76  35
1A  49 Virginia              16 1A  16 UCLA                  34  12.13  18.00  18
1A  39 Wisconsin             17 1A   5 Alabama               35  15.27  18.00  18

Preview

Top 16 games

Date  Cl  Rk (W-L) Visitor              Cl  Rk (W-L) Home                   Line Prob
09/12 1A  63 (1-0) Middle Tennessee St   1A   5 (1-0) Alabama               29.01  93%
09/12 1A  73 (0-0) Toledo                1A   4 (1-0) Arkansas              34.11  96%
09/12 1B  45 (1-0) Lamar                 1A  15 (1-0) Baylor                45.34  99%
09/12 1A  12 (0-1) Minnesota             1A  77 (1-0) Colorado St          -25.43  90%
09/12 1A 101 (1-0) South Florida         1A   1 (1-0) Florida St            51.89 100%
09/12 1A 110 (0-1) Tulane                1A   6 (1-0) Georgia Tech          43.94  99%
09/12 1A  14 (1-0) Oregon                1A  19 (1-0) Michigan St           -0.89  52%
09/12 1A   8 (1-0) Oklahoma              1A  13 (1-0) Tennessee             -1.46  53%
09/12 1A 112 (1-0) Ball St               1A   2 (1-0) Texas A&M             49.89  99%
09/12 1A  10 (1-0) Kansas St             1A  96 (0-1) Texas-San Antonio    -33.67  95%
09/12 1A  16 (1-0) UCLA                  1A  95 (0-1) UNLV                 -30.56  94%
09/12 1A  11 (1-0) Georgia               1A  36 (0-1) Vanderbilt           -12.20  73%

Notes

Comments are welcome

Rankings are biased: 33% this year’s scores, 67% 2014 power-rankings bias.