2019-01 North Scott

Introduction

North Scott enters February with a 15-0 record; 12 conference wins and 3 non-conference wins. The model currently ranks North Scott #15.

Ranking History

Ranking history (week 3 is the beginning of unbiased rankings)

#17 week 3
#16 week 4
#15 week 5
#14 week 6
#15 week 7-9

I’m seeing a very consistent ranking of North Scott. Given this observation, I would expect that the computer is predicting North Scott’s games very closely.

Looking at the competitive games on the season schedule, these are the worst predictions:
* 7.48-point underperformance to 3A #15 (8-6) Assumption.
* 9.67-point overperformance to 4A #38 (8-6) Pleasant Valley.

So, no double-digit missed by the computer. Given that the computer is very steady in its evaluation of North Scott, this is exactly what we would expect to see.

Win Analysis:

* 5-point win over #12 CR Prairie (11-3) (mild upset)
* 2-overtime-period win over #17 (12-2) Davenport Central (mild upset)
* 1-overtime-period win over #14 (13-1) Bettendorf (mild upset)

4A has only 48 teams:
2 quality wins over teams ranked 1-16.
1 win over teams ranked 17-32.
8 wins over teams ranked 33-48.
2 wins against 3A.
2 wins against non-IA teams.

From this count, we can see that the system is rating the bottom of the MAC conference very low.

Loss Analysis:

No losses

Conference Analysis:

North Scott is a member of the Mississippi Athletic Conference (MAC). The MAC (17-11) is ranked as the 4th strongest 4A conference (4 total).

Conference records:
MAC (5-5) versus MVC
MAC (2-2) versus Southeast
MAC (0-1) versus Tri-Rivers
MAC (0-2) versus WAMAC

What are the important games in the MAC conference record?

These are the non-conference IA games involving MAC teams with a winning conference record.

Bettendorf 67 @ Linn-Mar 64 (post-game prediction: Linn-Mar by 4.32, MAC overperforms by 7.32)
CR Prairie 52 @ North Scott 57 (post-game prediction: CR Prairie by 3.88, MAC overperforms by 8.88)
Dav Central 68 @ DQ Hempstead 62 (post-game prediction: Central by 5.64, MAC overperforms by 0.36)
Senior 66 @ Dav Central 59 (post-game prediction: Senior by 4.81, MAC overperforms by 11.81
Walhert 62 @ Assumption 61 (post-game prediction: Assumption by 0.79, MAC underperforms by 1.79)

From a MAC perspective: this is a very good to see. The top teams are consistently underrated by the model in big matchups. An estimate of this underappreciation by the system is 5.32 points (average of the 5 observations).

Given this evidence of underrating the top MAC teams, I would expect that the bottom teams of the MAC conference are currently overrated by the model.

Possible adjustment:

The system may be underrating the top half of the MAC conference. Adding 5.88 points to the top 4A MAC teams:

#5 Bettendorf 114.99
#8 North Scott 112.66
#10 Davenport Central 112.01