North Scott enters February with a 15-0 record; 12 conference wins and 3 non-conference wins. The model currently ranks North Scott #15.
Ranking history (week 3 is the beginning of unbiased rankings)
#17 week 3
#16 week 4
#15 week 5
#14 week 6
#15 week 7-9
I’m seeing a very consistent ranking of North Scott. Given this observation, I would expect that the computer is predicting North Scott’s games very closely.
Looking at the competitive games on the season schedule, these are the worst predictions:
* 7.48-point underperformance to 3A #15 (8-6) Assumption.
* 9.67-point overperformance to 4A #38 (8-6) Pleasant Valley.
So, no double-digit missed by the computer. Given that the computer is very steady in its evaluation of North Scott, this is exactly what we would expect to see.
* 5-point win over #12 CR Prairie (11-3) (mild upset)
* 2-overtime-period win over #17 (12-2) Davenport Central (mild upset)
* 1-overtime-period win over #14 (13-1) Bettendorf (mild upset)
4A has only 48 teams:
2 quality wins over teams ranked 1-16.
1 win over teams ranked 17-32.
8 wins over teams ranked 33-48.
2 wins against 3A.
2 wins against non-IA teams.
From this count, we can see that the system is rating the bottom of the MAC conference very low.
North Scott is a member of the Mississippi Athletic Conference (MAC). The MAC (17-11) is ranked as the 4th strongest 4A conference (4 total).
MAC (5-5) versus MVC
MAC (2-2) versus Southeast
MAC (0-1) versus Tri-Rivers
MAC (0-2) versus WAMAC
What are the important games in the MAC conference record?
These are the non-conference IA games involving MAC teams with a winning conference record.
Bettendorf 67 @ Linn-Mar 64 (post-game prediction: Linn-Mar by 4.32, MAC overperforms by 7.32)
CR Prairie 52 @ North Scott 57 (post-game prediction: CR Prairie by 3.88, MAC overperforms by 8.88)
Dav Central 68 @ DQ Hempstead 62 (post-game prediction: Central by 5.64, MAC overperforms by 0.36)
Senior 66 @ Dav Central 59 (post-game prediction: Senior by 4.81, MAC overperforms by 11.81
Walhert 62 @ Assumption 61 (post-game prediction: Assumption by 0.79, MAC underperforms by 1.79)
From a MAC perspective: this is a very good to see. The top teams are consistently underrated by the model in big matchups. An estimate of this underappreciation by the system is 5.32 points (average of the 5 observations).
Given this evidence of underrating the top MAC teams, I would expect that the bottom teams of the MAC conference are currently overrated by the model.
The system may be underrating the top half of the MAC conference. Adding 5.88 points to the top 4A MAC teams:
#5 Bettendorf 114.99
#8 North Scott 112.66
#10 Davenport Central 112.01