Week 1 notes:
1. 162 games were played in week 1 (15 in week 0).
2. Week one thoughts and rankings should be viewed with the idea of exploring for useful data. Not all data gathered in week one will ultimately be useful. However, it is all we have at this point. Rankings are 33% this year’s data and 67% last year’s analysis, so the rankings continue to have substantial bias.
3. thoughts on 5A #1 Pleasant Valley
Pleasant Valley beats CR Prairie by 31 – nice performance. Based on last year’s analysis, this was expected to be a coin-flip (Prairie by 1). So did Pleasant Valley get better or did Prairie get worse? It’s only one data point; analysis is impossible. 2021 data: Pleasant Valley lost to WDM Valley by 26 in the playoffs last year.
What would it take for Pleasant Valley to retain its #1 ranking?
My thoughts/predictions:
CR Prairie needs to beat Dubuque Senior. Currently Prairie is a 17-point underdog.
Pleasant Valley needs to beat Hempstead.
Waterloo East needs to beat Marshalltown. Currently Waterloo East is a 2-point underdog.
4. 5A headline game: Southeast Polk 38 @ WDM Dowling 24
A 14-point road win is very impressive. Southeast Polk was a 7-point pre-game favorite. Next game for the Rams is a road game against WDM Valley (Southeast Polk is a 7-point favorite).
5. 5A top teams
#1 Pleasant Valley, #2 Southeast Polk, #3 Ankeny, #4 WDM Valley, #5 Dubuque Senior, #6 Marion Linn-Mar, #7 Sioux City East, #8 Urbandale
6. 4A
#1 Lewis Central has a big win at home against Harlan 30-27.
#2 Bondurant-Farrar wins over Ballard 36-7.
7. 3A
#1 Harlan lost at Lewis Central; Harlan was a pre-game 6-point underdog. The model decides to retain the Cyclones at #1.
#2 Nevada, #3 Humboldt, #4 Assumption, #5 Solon
8. Class 2A
#1 Central Lyon-George-Little Rock has a 45-point win over Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley, a 10-point win was expected.
9. Class 1A
#1 Dike-New Hartford has a 28-point win over Waterloo Columbus, a 8-point win was expected.
#2 Van Meter has a 29-point win over Earlham, a 20-point win was expected.
10. Class A
Top 7 teams are currently believed to have a lot of parity: #1 South O’Brien, #2 Grundy Center, #3 West Hancock, #4 Nashua-Plainfield, #5 Mount Ayr, #6 East Buchanan, and #7 AHSTW.
11. Class 8
#1 Remsen St Mary, #2 Gladbrook-Reinbeck, #3 WACO, #4 Fremont-Mills, #5 CAM