IAHSFB: week 2 post-game thoughts


Week 2 notes:

0. Rankings

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/week2/

1. Bias

Week two is an exciting time; this is the last of the biased rankings. Week 3 will bring the first unbiased rankings.

Currently rankings are 50% this year’s data and 50% last year’s analysis.

When bias is removed next week, large changes may occur. When examining rankings from week 2 to week 3, changes could be from on-field play in week 3 or from removal of the bias.

2. Pools

Currently there are 6 pools of teams; within the pools teams are connected by game play. Walking through these, pool 1 is the large 5A-A pool of teams. Pool 2 is the 8-player universe. Pool 3 is a 2A pool of south-central/south-east Iowa (I will have to get out my map!). Pool 4 is a 5A pool containing Pleasant Valley. Pool 5 is a mixed-class pool of northwest Iowa, and pool 6 is a 5A pool of Central Iowa.

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/week2/TeamConnectionReport.html

When games are played in week 3, pools 3-6 will connect with the pool 1 and unbiased rankings will arrive.

3. 5A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
5A  14 Ames                  36 4A  20 Fort Dodge            32  -3.36  -9.24  -4
5A   9 Ankeny Centennial     10 5A   5 Ankeny                17  12.85   8.98   7
5A   3 Cedar Falls           57 5A  29 Waterloo West          0 -10.84 -38.66 -57
5A   7 CR Kennedy            34 5A  28 Bettendorf             0  -5.21 -31.81 -34
5A  16 Dubuque Senior        20 5A  12 CR Prairie            40 -16.16   6.99  20
5A  13 Iowa City High        77 5A  36 CR Jefferson           0 -34.23 -54.42 -77
5A  11 Marion Linn-Mar       14 4A   1 Iowa City Liberty     25   2.70  18.17  11
5A   2 Southeast Polk        24 5A  10 WDM Valley             7  -6.97 -19.91 -17
5A   1 Pleasant Valley       42 5A  31 Dubuque Hempstead      0 -37.75 -53.63 -42
5A   6 Sioux City East       28 5A  23 Sioux City North       2 -20.69 -27.37 -26
5A  19 Urbandale              7 5A   8 Johnston              24 -14.76  15.80  17
5A  15 Waukee                31 5A  26 Des Moines Roosevelt  13   6.79 -17.09 -18
5A   4 WDM Dowling           45 5A  20 Waukee Northwest      19  -2.97 -23.09 -26

4. 5A Rankings

Pleasant Valley retains its spot at #1, beating Hemptead 42-0. Of the three conditions I predicted for Pleasant Valley to retain its rankings, two transpired (Pleasant Valley beat Hempstead and CR Prairie beat Dubuque Senior. Condition #3 was Waterloo East beating Marshalltown. In this game Marshalltown prevailed 31-6. Nonetheless, Pleasant Valley retains its spot at #1.

#9 Centennial @ #5 Ankeny – Ankeny wins by 7
#2 Southeast Polk @ #10 Valley – Southeast Polk wins by 17

5. 5A Game of the week:

#4 Dowling @ #5 Ankeny – coin-flip game is predicted, Ankeny by 0.17 points

6. 4A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
4A  29 Boone                  0 4A   8 Webster City          54  25.81  39.74  54
4A  15 CR Washington         41 4A  31 Marion                13 -15.62 -30.18 -28
4A   2 CB Lewis Central      28 4A  10 Carlisle              21 -18.50 -14.13  -7
4A  13 Dallas Center-Grimes  14 4A   7 Bondurant-Farrar      21  25.77  12.84   7
5A  17 Des Moines Lincoln     0 4A   5 Norwalk               45  12.19  21.86  45
4A  17 Western Dubuque        7 4A   3 Eldridge North Scott  45  22.51  25.30  38
4A  19 Glenwood              17 4A   9 Indianola             31  21.12  16.01  14
4A  12 LeMars                28 3A  32 Sioux City Heelan      0 -17.32 -28.92 -28
3A  26 West Delaware          7 4A   4 CR Xavier             44  26.77  37.65  37
5A  11 Marion Linn-Mar       14 4A   1 Iowa City Liberty     25   2.70  18.17  11
4A  14 Newton                27 2A  18 Prairie City-Monroe   13   7.43  -6.47 -14
4A  11 Spencer               37 4A  16 Mason City            29   1.33  -6.85  -8
4A   6 Waverly-Shell Rock    35 2A  20 Cresco Crestwood       0 -15.72 -21.46 -35

Lewis Central over Carlisle was the big game of the evening.

7. 4A Rankings

There is a lots of parity at the top right now. Tier 1 teams are Liberty, Lewis Central, North Scott, Xavier, Norwalk, Waverly Shell-Rock, and Bondurant-Farrar.

8. 4A Game of the week

(nothing obvious)

9. 3A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
3A   3 Adel ADM              59 3A  19 Huxley Ballard        20  -5.81 -22.12 -39
3A  15 Center Point-Urbana    7 3A   4 Van Horne Benton      37   9.53  19.19  30
2A  19 Clear Lake            16 3A   7 Algona                27  -2.41  11.17  11
3A  12 Creston COM           31 4A  27 Winterset             14 -19.28 -21.39 -17
3A  10 Davenport Assumption  21 2A   8 Dubuque Wahlert       34  -4.65   7.87  13
3A  13 Central Clinton       42 2A  32 Camanche              24 -11.32 -18.13 -18
3A  30 Grinnell               6 3A   2 Harlan                63  39.46  42.65  57
3A  14 Hampton-Dumont-CAL    34 2A  41 Iowa Falls-Alden       7 -19.66 -27.00 -27
1A   2 Hawarden West Sioux   58 3A  16 Sioux Center          14 -10.79 -22.33 -44
3A   1 Humboldt              37 2A  29 Garner GHV             0 -26.77 -36.07 -37
3A   6 Mount Vernon          17 3A  11 Solon                 14  14.09  -5.54  -3
2A  36 Unity Christian        7 3A   9 MOC-Floyd Valley      34  14.34  28.60  27
4A  21 Pella                  7 3A   5 Alleman North Polk    24  19.00  19.27  17
2A   7 West Marshall         35 3A   8 Nevada                31   9.28  -4.00  -4

2A #7 West Marshall 35 beats #8 Nevada 31 in the highlight game of the night.

10. 3A Rankings

Tier 1 teams include: Humboldt, Harlan, ADM, and Benton.

11. 3A Game of the week:

#5 North Polk @ #3 ADM — ADM by 9

12. 2A Results:

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
2A  14 Centerville           24 2A  39 Albia                  0  -8.18 -26.62 -24
 A  54 Colfax-Mingo           0 2A  11 Osceola Clarke        57  40.94  50.24  57
3A  10 Davenport Assumption  21 2A   8 Dubuque Wahlert       34  -4.65   7.87  13
1A  20 Emmetsburg            14 2A  10 Southeast Valley      28  19.98  13.18  14
2A  25 Estherville LC        14 2A   4 Inwood West Lyon      43 -13.50  23.85  29
2A  22 Forest City            0 2A   3 Spirit Lake           47  19.67  23.69  47
2A   5 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG   42 4A  30 Storm Lake             0 -35.99 -41.85 -42
2A   9 Greene County         61 4A  35 Perry                  0 -46.08 -54.58 -61
2A  13 New Hampton           36 3A  35 Charles City           7 -23.17 -45.91 -29
2A   6 Pocahontas Area       30 1A  24 South Cent Calhoun     6   2.90 -24.00 -24
2A  12 Red Oak               42 1A  32 West Central Valley    0  -5.62 -25.76 -42
2A   1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR  28 3A  17 Sergeant Bluff-Luton   0 -25.40 -28.92 -28
2A  16 Sheldon               17  A  12 South O'Brien          0  19.89  -1.63 -17
2A   7 West Marshall         35 3A   8 Nevada                31   9.28  -4.00  -4
2A  15 North Fayette Valley  13 1A  17 SumnerFredericksburg   0   0.31  -5.83 -13
2A   2 Williamsburg          18 1A   6 Van Meter             13   6.55 -10.56  -5

#2 Williamsburg beats #6 Van Meter in the highlight game of the night.

13. 2A Rankings:

Top teams: Central Lyon-George-Little Rock, Williamsburg, Spirit Lake

14. 2A Games of the Week:

1A #2 West Sioux @ #1 Central Lyon-George-Little Rock
1A #1 Western Christian @ #3 Spirit Lake

15. 1A Results:

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1A  13 Carroll Kuemper       37 3A  28 Atlantic              22 -23.27 -19.04 -15
1A  22 Cascade               13 1A  10 Durant                26  13.61  16.80  13
2A  30 Clarinda              22 1A   7 Underwood             59  26.27  26.75  37
1A   8 Dike-New Hartford     14  A   5 Grundy Center         17  -7.80  -2.85   3
1A  31 Eldora South Hardin   13 1A  11 South Hamilton        44   7.13  29.41  31
 A  44 Guttenberg CR          0 1A  14 Monona MFL-MarMac     60  17.18  37.14  60
1A   2 Hawarden West Sioux   58 3A  16 Sioux Center          14 -10.79 -22.33 -44
1A   1 Western Christian     45 3A  22 Boyden-Hull-R Valley  20  -4.47 -30.15 -25
2A  37 LaPorte City Union     7 1A   9 Denver                42  23.49  33.56  35
1A   5 Mediapolis            36 2A  34 Tipton                 0 -23.60 -31.48 -36
2A  23 Osage                 17 1A  12 Aplington AP          34  10.64  15.02  17
1A   4 Pella Christian       61 1A  34 Panora Panorama        3 -21.66 -41.87 -58
1A   3 West Branch           34 1A  26 Waterloo Columbus     13 -13.56 -33.07 -21
2A   2 Williamsburg          18 1A   6 Van Meter             13   6.55 -10.56  -5
1A  16 Wilton                40 2A  35 Goose Lake Northeast  12  20.14 -15.95 -28
1A  19 Woodward-Granger      30 1A  15 Guthrie Center GC-A-  34  13.27   5.47   4

16. 1A Rankings

Western Christian, West Sioux, West Branch lead

17. 1A Game of the week

(nothing obvious)

18. Class A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 A  15 Alta-Aurelia          14  A  31 Akron-Westfield        0 -19.98 -14.51 -14
1A   8 Dike-New Hartford     14  A   5 Grundy Center         17  -7.80  -2.85   3
 A  29 Earlham               28  A   3 Avoca AHSTW           50  14.20  27.09  22
 A   8 Hartley HMS           50  A  21 LeMars Gehlen         35   4.15 -13.98 -15
 A  10 Lawton-Bronson        65  A  52 Missouri Valley        0 -24.92 -41.35 -65
 A   9 Lynnville-Sully       50  A  53 North Mahaska          6 -33.14 -44.99 -44
 A  25 Mason City Newman      7  A   2 Britt West Hancock    42  15.37  25.88  35
 A   6 Mount Ayr             33 1A  27 Leon Central Decatur  13 -19.98 -19.30 -20
 A   4 Woodbury Central      41  A  35 Logan-Magnolia         6 -14.41 -29.71 -35
 A  11 Nashua-Plainfield      6  A   1 Wapsie Valley         41 -11.52  18.36  35
 A  42 Packwood Pekin         0  A  13 Alburnett             42   7.27  25.61  42
2A  16 Sheldon               17  A  12 South O'Brien          0  19.89  -1.63 -17
 A  30 Traer North Tama       0  A   7 Ackley AGWSR          29 -12.52  22.19  29
 A  16 East Buchanan          8  A  14 North Linn            14 -18.13   3.13   6

19. A Rankings

Wapsie Valley, West Hancock, AHSTW, Woodbury Central, and Grundy Center lead.

20. Class A Game of the week:

#1 Wapsie Valley @ #5 Grundy Center

21. Class 8 Rankings

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 8   7 Anita CAM             56  8  50 Woodbine              16 -31.20 -47.35 -40
 8  48 Colo-NESCO            14  8  10 Gladbrook-Reinbeck    54  44.01  43.43  40
 8  61 River Valley           6  8   1 Remsen St Mary        60  64.00  81.83  54
 8  38 Fort Dodge St Edmond  22  8   6 West Bend-Mallard     66  -4.93  30.62  44
 8   2 Don Bosco             48  8  24 Turkey Valley          8   1.30 -30.48 -40
 8  57 Griswold               6  8  13 Bedford               70  48.02  55.34  64
 8  12 Harris-Lake Park      49  8  40 Northwood-Kensett      0  10.60 -28.92 -49
 8   8 Lenox                 50  8  18 East Mills            32  -1.67  -9.40 -18
 8  11 Southeast Warren      59  8  43 Mormon Trail          22   0.53 -33.74 -37
 8  15 Ruthven GTRA          50  8  44 Glidden-Ralston        8 -20.81 -28.92 -42
 8  60 Sioux City Siouxland   0  8   4 Newell-Fonda          72  54.11  69.62  72
 8  34 Stanton-Essex          6  8   9 Tabor Fremont-Mills   42  14.90  26.51  36
 8  14 Tripoli               58  8  59 Riceville             16 -42.32 -55.75 -42
 8  39 Victor HLV            14  8   3 Wayland WACO          60  35.63  39.79  46

22. Class 8 Rankings

Remsen St Mary and Don Bosco lead.

23. Class 8 Game of the week:

(nothing obvious)