Week 3 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/week2/
2. Preamble
Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. Bias
The pledge was week 3 with no bias.
Week 3 is a tricky time. The problem is that sometimes the unbiased rankings are seemingly inaccurate. The typically way this is seen is the spread between the top teams and the bottom teams, or even the spread between a team at the top 25%ile and a team at the bottom 25%ile. A third observation is that the predicted game margins are too large in magnitude.
How does this happen? Early in the season the model will set team strengths to exactly match the game margins of the three games. Given there are only three games, this will tend to exagerrate the strengths or weaknesses of these teams and fail to recognize the inherent randomness that did exist in those games.
Unbiased week three rankings caused too much concern. Week 3 rankings will retain bias for one more week; rankings are 60% this year’s data and 40% last year’s analysis. Week 4 rankings have always been unbiased.
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 18 Ames 19 5A 9 Iowa City High 55 1.86 17.47 36 5A 10 Ankeny Centennial 31 5A 17 Waukee 6 -3.85 -13.81 -25 5A 6 CR Prairie 24 5A 12 Cedar Falls 7 13.79 -4.75 -17 4A 11 CR Washington 6 5A 5 CR Kennedy 27 13.91 10.96 21 4A 12 Dallas Center-Grimes 21 5A 7 Johnston 44 5.75 10.07 23 5A 24 Davenport North 13 5A 15 Dubuque Senior 27 17.24 16.17 14 5A 30 Dubuque Hempstead 15 5A 14 Iowa City West 40 20.16 28.38 25 4A 19 LeMars 17 5A 3 Sioux City East 52 12.74 27.41 35 5A 1 Pleasant Valley 14 5A 11 Marion Linn-Mar 7 -23.71 -21.05 -7 5A 16 Urbandale 10 5A 13 WDM Valley 7 13.34 4.02 -3 5A 19 Waukee Northwest 21 5A 2 Southeast Polk 42 34.91 30.34 21 5A 4 WDM Dowling 17 5A 8 Ankeny 10 0.17 -3.79 -7
City High wins the Ames-City High annual event.
5. 5A Rankings
Pleasant Valley retains its #1 ranking. City High’s win over Ames undoubledly contributes to this observation. The next three weeks for Pleasant Valley seem to be non-competitive.
#2 Southeast Polk hosts #8 Ankeny as 12-point favorites. Southeast Polk has played a quality schedule, #10 best, with wins over #4 Dowling and #13 Valley.
#3 Sioux City East is #3, based on a relatively light schedule. Sergeant Bluff-Luton is the next on the schedule with a game played at East. East plays Centennial on September 23: this game is believed to be the benchmark for the evaluation of East.
#4 Dowling (2-1) has played the 5th toughest schedule to date. Dowling hosts #9 City High this week as a 7-point favorite. City High is providing very important data on the East-West relative strength of schools by playing Ames in week 3 and now Dowling in week 4. This will add significant value to the accuracy of next week’s unbiased rankings, particularly in comparison of CIML teams to MVC/MAC teams.
#5 Kennedy is undefeated on a schedule ranked 18th out of 36 teams. Kennedy has wins over #19 Iowa City West and #11 Cedar Rapids Washington. Kennedy hosts Jefferson this week in an expected non-competitive game.
6. 5A games
# 9 (2-1) Iowa City High @ # 4 (2-1) Dowling 7.34 61% #12 (2-1) Cedar Falls @ #10 (1-2) Ankeny Centennial 3.89 56% # 8 (2-1) Ankeny @ # 2 (3-0) Southeast Polk 12.43 68%
All home team are favored; the first two game are super-important East vs West matchups.
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 11 CR Washington 6 5A 5 CR Kennedy 27 13.91 10.96 21 4A 4 CB Lewis Central 49 4A 9 Norwalk 27 -2.83 -16.43 -22 4A 12 Dallas Center-Grimes 21 5A 7 Johnston 44 5.75 10.07 23 2A 7 Dubuque Wahlert 7 4A 2 CR Xavier 40 10.15 22.78 33 4A 3 Eldridge North Scott 31 3A 9 Davenport Assumption 14 -18.11 -22.52 -17 3A 16 Gilbert 7 4A 6 Bondurant-Farrar 48 20.79 20.22 41 4A 5 Iowa City Liberty 30 4A 14 Western Dubuque 36 -25.86 -12.55 6 3A 34 Knoxville 0 4A 8 Carlisle 49 41.30 50.71 49 4A 15 Newton 28 5A 25 Marshalltown 21 -12.06 -15.05 -7 4A 21 Pella 19 4A 7 Indianola 33 19.55 21.35 14 3A 31 Sioux City Heelan 7 4A 13 Spencer 31 31.48 31.78 24 4A 10 Clear Creek-Amana 31 3A 25 Washington 6 -0.89 -20.53 -25 4A 16 Webster City 0 4A 1 Waverly-Shell Rock 28 7.99 32.19 28
Western Dubuque upsets Iowa City Liberty.
8. 4A Rankings
Waverly-Shell Rock, Xavier, North Scott, and Lewis Central lead the way.
9. 4A Games
#2 (3-0) CR Xavier @ #3 (3-0) Eldridge North Scott 0.98 51% #5 (2-1) Iowa City Liberty @ #10 (2-1) Clear Creek-Amana -7.03 60% #7 (3-0) Indianola @ #4 (4-0) CB Lewis Central 17.90 75%
Nice set of games are expected in 4A. Xavier @ North Scott in a coin flip; Liberty is favored at Clear Creek-Amana, and Lewis Central is favored at home.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 4 Algona 34 2A 31 Garner GHV 7 -21.24 -28.81 -27 3A 6 Alleman North Polk 20 3A 1 Adel ADM 29 8.73 17.11 9 4A 29 Denison-Schleswig 9 3A 11 Creston COM 35 26.72 30.56 26 3A 13 Central Clinton 37 4A 26 Clinton 14 -14.05 -18.95 -23 4A 3 Eldridge North Scott 31 3A 9 Davenport Assumption 14 -18.11 -22.52 -17 3A 16 Gilbert 7 4A 6 Bondurant-Farrar 48 20.79 20.22 41 2A 9 Southeast Valley 6 3A 10 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 13 -0.88 3.81 7 3A 2 Harlan 42 3A 18 Sergeant Bluff-Luton 14 -23.02 -28.17 -28 3A 3 Humboldt 17 2A 23 Estherville LC 0 -30.27 -24.94 -17 3A 15 West Delaware 42 4A 28 Decorah 6 4.92 -19.67 -36 3A 5 Nevada 49 2A 21 Roland-Story 26 -11.94 -17.91 -23 3A 12 Solon 25 2A 2 Williamsburg 38 19.35 20.38 13 4A 30 Storm Lake 0 3A 7 MOC-Floyd Valley 41 38.14 40.81 41 2A 32 Tipton 0 3A 8 Mount Vernon 42 29.85 28.53 42 3A 14 Van Horne Benton 14 4A 20 Marion 38 -47.16 -8.72 24
11. 3A Rankings
ADM and Harlan lead
12. 3A Games
#10 (3-0) Hampton-Dumont-CAL @ #5 (2-1) Nevada 7.82 61%
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 8 Dike-New Hartford 28 2A 13 Clear Lake 20 -12.55 -11.23 -8 2A 7 Dubuque Wahlert 7 4A 2 CR Xavier 40 10.15 22.78 33 2A 25 Forest City 6 2A 14 Clarion CGD 28 5.43 13.66 22 2A 9 Southeast Valley 6 3A 10 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 13 -0.88 3.81 7 1A 1 Hawarden West Sioux 6 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 44 9.43 26.22 38 1A 2 Western Christian 20 2A 4 Spirit Lake 35 -5.88 4.81 15 2A 5 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 54 1A 38 Lake View East Sac 7 -42.77 -51.91 -47 2A 45 Oelwein 0 2A 11 New Hampton 47 37.83 39.99 47 4A 36 Perry 7 2A 10 Osceola Clarke 68 53.89 58.41 61 2A 16 Pocahontas Area 12 1A 32 Sioux Central 6 -31.27 -19.10 -6 1A 48 Postville 0 2A 8 North Fayette Valley 78 64.41 77.51 78 2A 12 Red Oak 36 1A 40 Nodaway Valley 0 -40.81 -42.58 -36 3A 23 Sioux Center 0 2A 6 Inwood West Lyon 17 16.44 22.42 17 3A 12 Solon 25 2A 2 Williamsburg 38 19.35 20.38 13 2A 3 West Marshall 41 1A 19 South Hamilton 6 -4.46 -25.57 -35
14. 2A Rankings
Central Lyon, Williamsburg, West Marshall, Spirit Lake, and O-A-BC-IG lead.
15. 2A Games
#9 (2-1) Southeast Valley @ #5 (3- 0) Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 12.08 67% #6 (2-1) Inwood West Lyon @ #1 (3- 0) Central Lyon CL-G-LR 35.25 90%
home teams are favored
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 37 Anamosa 7 1A 13 Cascade 46 12.56 28.34 39 1A 9 Aplington AP 72 2A 47 Jesup 19 -42.51 -49.04 -53 A 33 CB St Albert 7 1A 4 Underwood 57 31.65 37.64 50 A 18 Maquoketa Valley 0 1A 3 West Branch 59 20.19 27.55 59 1A 16 Denver 7 1A 17 SumnerFredericksburg 12 -13.05 -0.46 5 1A 8 Dike-New Hartford 28 2A 13 Clear Lake 20 -12.55 -11.23 -8 1A 10 Durant 23 2A 28 Goose Lake Northeast 22 -28.65 -18.64 -1 1A 1 Hawarden West Sioux 6 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 44 9.43 26.22 38 1A 2 Western Christian 20 2A 4 Spirit Lake 35 -5.88 4.81 15 2A 26 Greene County 0 1A 7 Carroll Kuemper 35 -5.73 28.14 35 1A 31 South Cent Calhoun 28 1A 14 Emmetsburg 63 3.51 22.39 35 1A 11 Mediapolis 40 3A 29 WB-Notre Dame 12 -32.85 -26.34 -28 2A 19 Prairie City-Monroe 7 1A 6 Pella Christian 28 17.71 20.41 21 2A 29 Wellman Mid-Prairie 7 1A 12 Iowa City Regina 36 2.21 17.14 29 4A 25 Winterset 17 1A 5 Van Meter 42 32.20 31.67 25
17. 1A Rankings
It’s hard to know where to stop is compiling this list; I’m choosing to include the top 8.
West Sioux, Western Christian, West Branch, Underwood, Van Meter, Pella Christian, Kuemper, and Dike-New Hartford lead.
18. 1A Games
No top ten games this week, but #12 Regina @ #11 Mediapolis seems to be the game to highlight. Mediapolis is a 4-point favorite.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 10 Alburnett 14 A 29 Lisbon 0 -10.45 -16.90 -14 A 44 Arlington Starmont 0 A 13 East Buchanan 38 34.72 32.43 38 A 4 Avoca AHSTW 28 A 30 Southwest Valley 0 -17.38 -28.89 -28 A 2 Britt West Hancock 60 A 47 Lake Mills 6 -52.58 -60.54 -54 A 9 Wapsie Valley 7 A 5 Grundy Center 20 -3.52 7.45 13 A 15 Hinton 40 A 26 Alta-Aurelia 28 11.90 -8.24 -12 A 35 Lawton-Bronson 0 A 11 LeMars Gehlen 35 -8.20 25.51 35 A 7 Lynnville-Sully 49 1A 39 East Marshall 7 -37.07 -45.31 -42 A 34 IKM-Manning 0 A 1 Woodbury Central 40 35.09 44.29 40 A 39 Oakland Riverside 15 A 8 Mount Ayr 41 30.48 32.35 26 A 14 South O'Brien 6 A 6 Hartley HMS 22 7.21 14.10 16 A 3 Saint Ansgar 48 A 21 North Union 0 12.18 -24.43 -48 A 12 North Linn 48 A 46 Bellevue 13 -33.01 -32.90 -35 A 38 Wapello 19 A 16 Columbus Junction 39 13.48 20.00 20
20. A Rankings
Woodbury Central, West Hancock, Saint Ansgar, and AHSTW lead.
21. A Games
#8 (3-0) Mount Ayr @ #4 (3-0) Avoca AHSTW is the headline game; AHSTW is favored by 9.93, 64%.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 36 Audubon 0 8 9 Tabor Fremont-Mills 44 27.73 29.50 44 8 21 Bedford 27 8 7 Lenox 38 7.19 14.91 11 8 48 Collins-Maxwell 12 8 2 Don Bosco 86 52.83 61.21 74 8 38 Edgewood-Colesburg 12 8 6 Central City 38 19.18 38.95 26 8 11 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 60 8 58 Dunkerton 6 -59.77 -54.97 -54 8 14 Harris-Lake Park 40 8 16 Kingsley-Pierson 37 -4.94 -0.39 -3 8 55 Janesville 14 8 10 Tripoli 76 44.95 54.10 62 8 44 Martensdale-St Marys 12 8 13 Southeast Warren 60 39.24 37.29 48 8 15 West Harrison 29 8 19 Anita CAM 22 21.45 -1.81 -7 8 5 Newell-Fonda 48 8 61 River Valley 6 -68.46 -67.92 -42 8 39 Northwood-Kensett 6 8 12 Ruthven GTRA 60 26.00 31.34 54 8 1 Remsen St Mary 73 8 60 Sioux City Siouxland 0 -80.44 -80.31 -73 8 4 Wayland WACO 49 8 51 English Valleys 0 -54.92 -55.12 -49 8 8 West Bend-Mallard 30 8 33 Algona Garrigan 12 -18.45 -23.97 -18 8 18 Wyoming Midland 6 8 3 Easton Valley 50 12.76 22.73 44
23. 8 Rankings
Remsen St Mary, Don Bosco, and Easton Valley lead.
24. 8 Games
#10 (3-0) Tripoli @ 11 (3-0) Gladbrook-Reinbeck is the game to highlight, Tripoli is a coin-flip favorite.