Week 4 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/week4/
2. Preamble
Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
Week 4 rankings are published with no bias. Rankings are based on 2022 data only.
Week 5 rankings are the benchmark for understanding the championship contenders. 86% of championships are won by teams in the top 5 of the bcmoorerankings in week 5.
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 13 Iowa City West 42 5A 24 Davenport North 7 -14.35 -25.11 -35 5A 5 Marion Linn-Mar 30 4A 7 CR Washington 12 -0.58 -13.72 -18 5A 3 Ankeny 31 5A 4 Southeast Polk 14 12.34 -0.75 -17 5A 15 Cedar Falls 14 5A 8 Ankeny Centennial 28 3.83 13.63 14 5A 34 CR Jefferson 6 5A 6 CR Kennedy 55 62.77 78.29 49 5A 10 CR Prairie 18 5A 20 Bettendorf 17 -30.57 -17.23 -1 5A 25 Des Moines Roosevelt 13 5A 16 Urbandale 37 11.18 27.26 24 5A 12 Iowa City High 0 5A 1 WDM Dowling 34 7.24 26.60 34 5A 14 Johnston 7 5A 11 Waukee Northwest 21 -17.61 4.68 14 5A 18 Muscatine 9 5A 2 Pleasant Valley 49 44.58 40.22 40 3A 18 Sergeant Bluff-Luton 14 5A 7 Sioux City East 42 28.26 28.77 28 5A 9 WDM Valley 24 5A 19 Waukee 6 -5.99 -16.83 -18
#3 Ankeny wins by 17 @ #4 Southeast Polk.
A pre-game coin flip, Linn-Mar wins the #5 vs #7 matchup by 18.
#10 Cedar Rapids Prairie escapes Bettendorf with a 1-point win. The model was expecting a 31-point victory. This result definitely has a effect on the ranking of Pleasant Valley.
5. 5A Rankings
Dowling is the new #1 ranked team. Dowling beat #12 City High by 34. Dowling also has a win against #3 Ankeny and a loss to #4 Southeast Polk, contributing to its second hardest schedule in the state.
Pleasant Valley moves from #1 to #2. As noted above, Cedar Rapids Prairie’s 31-point underperformance had a significant effect on the model’s evaluation of Pleasant Valley. The next two games will probably be non-competitive; the October 07 game against City High could be useful.
Ankeny Hawks are #3, up from #8 last week. Ankeny was a pre-game 12-point underdog to Southeast Polk and won by 17, very impressive. Ankeny has played the 4th toughest schedule to date.
Southeast Polk moves from #2 to #4 after the aforementioned loss to Ankeny. The upcoming September 30 game at Linn-Mar is highly anticipated. Southeast Polk has played the #1 schedule to date.
Kennedy is undefeated at #6; a highlight win may be its win over 4A #7 CR Washington. Games to watch are September 30 at Cedar Falls and October 14 at Johnston. Schedule played to date is ranked 21st toughest.
Sioux City East is undefeated at #7. Big games are September 23 @ Centennial and September 30 @ Northwest. Schedule played to date is ranked 22nd toughest.
Finally, Davenport West is undefeated at #23, with a schedule ranking of 33rd toughest (or 4th easiest). West hosts Hempstead this week as a 9-point favorite. After that West is expected to be underdogs in the remaining games.
6. 5A games
# 7 (5-0) Sioux City East @ #8 (2-2) Ankeny Centennial 1.61 53% #12 (2-2) Iowa City High @ #13 (3-1) Iowa City West -0.13 50%
Two great games are scheduled.
7. 4A Results
5A 5 Marion Linn-Mar 30 4A 7 CR Washington 12 -0.58 -13.72 -18 4A 10 Bondurant-Farrar 35 4A 19 Pella 14 -24.30 -15.94 -21 4A 11 Carlisle 53 5A 35 Des Moines Lincoln 14 -32.33 -57.11 -39 4A 1 CR Xavier 17 4A 2 Eldridge North Scott 0 0.91 -2.75 -17 4A 6 Western Dubuque 48 5A 26 Dubuque Hempstead 6 -28.51 -43.71 -42 4A 16 Glenwood 14 3A 1 Harlan 49 27.31 29.57 35 4A 8 Indianola 16 4A 5 CB Lewis Central 34 17.85 15.04 18 4A 3 Iowa City Liberty 55 4A 12 Clear Creek-Amana 7 -7.07 -24.53 -48 4A 20 Mason City 14 4A 13 Webster City 49 3.98 13.62 35 4A 9 Norwalk 42 4A 15 Dallas Center-Grimes 28 -4.86 -11.00 -14 4A 14 Spencer 29 3A 24 Sioux Center 7 -13.52 -17.44 -22 4A 4 Waverly-Shell Rock 42 3A 7 West Delaware 7 -31.51 -22.33 -35
8. 4A Rankings
Xavier, North Scott, Liberty, Waverly-Shell Rock, and Lewis Central lead the way.
9. 4A Games
#2 (3-1) Eldridge North Scott @ #3 (3-1) Iowa City Liberty -8.82 65% #10 (4-0) Bondurant-Farrar @ #11 (3-1) Carlisle -0.85 51% #1 (4-0) CR Xavier @ #7 (2-2) CR Washington -33.96 92%
North Scott is favored at Liberty; Bondurant-Farrar at Carlisle is a coin-flip game; and Xavier is a big favorite at Washington.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 6 Alleman North Polk 42 3A 26 Grinnell 7 -26.26 -29.14 -35 4A 30 Boone 0 3A 5 Humboldt 37 49.46 53.66 37 3A 11 Boyden-Hull-R Valley 19 3A 16 Algona 7 17.66 -1.43 -12 3A 10 Creston COM 40 3A 12 Gilbert 36 -4.80 0.65 -4 3A 8 Davenport Assumption 10 3A 3 Solon 35 -2.60 12.85 25 4A 16 Glenwood 14 3A 1 Harlan 49 27.31 29.57 35 3A 14 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 23 3A 13 Nevada 24 7.70 2.69 1 3A 9 MOC-Floyd Valley 22 4A 18 LeMars 24 -10.96 -3.08 2 3A 2 Mount Vernon 42 3A 21 Center Point-Urbana 6 -13.36 -27.01 -36 3A 34 Tama South Tama 0 3A 15 Van Horne Benton 48 34.55 41.17 48 4A 4 Waverly-Shell Rock 42 3A 7 West Delaware 7 -31.51 -22.33 -35 4A 26 Winterset 14 3A 4 Adel ADM 42 42.35 42.41 28
11. 3A Rankings
Harlan, Mount Vernon, Solon, ADM, and Humboldt lead
12. 3A Games
#15 (3-1) Van Horne Benton @ #2 (4-0) Mount Vernon 25.79 86% #13 (3-1) Nevada @ #12 (1-3) Gilbert 2.36 54%
Home teams are favored; Gilbert game is in the coin-flip territory.
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 36 Chariton 7 2A 5 West Marshall 28 45.13 49.29 21 2A 20 Clarion CGD 13 2A 16 Estherville LC 27 -8.49 3.95 14 2A 7 Cresco Crestwood 36 2A 35 Forest City 21 -11.38 -37.08 -15 2A 3 Dubuque Wahlert 42 2A 37 LaPorte City Union 7 -38.19 -55.18 -35 2A 34 Garner GHV 0 2A 11 New Hampton 35 19.90 27.03 35 2A 14 Southeast Valley 8 2A 8 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 28 11.88 17.53 20 2A 6 Inwood West Lyon 17 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 38 35.27 33.36 21 2A 10 Monticello 61 2A 27 Tipton 14 -12.01 -16.17 -47 2A 9 Osage 31 2A 13 Clear Lake 28 -0.45 -3.36 -3 2A 33 Osceola Clarke 7 2A 15 Clarinda 28 -8.31 18.20 21 2A 45 Shenandoah 0 2A 12 Red Oak 47 40.21 44.99 47 2A 4 Spirit Lake 47 2A 26 Pocahontas Area 6 -21.14 -41.47 -41 2A 2 Williamsburg 65 2A 44 Central Lee 7 -54.04 -75.18 -58
14. 2A Rankings
Central Lyon, Williamsburg, Wahlert, Spirit Lake, and West Marshall lead.
15. 2A Games
#8 (4-0) Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG @ #4 (4-0) Spirit Lake 17.52 77% #11 (4-0) New Hampton @ #7 (3-1) Cresco Crestwood 13.77 72% #16 (2-2) Estherville LC @ #14 (2-2) Southeast Valley 2.63 54%
home teams are favored
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 13 Carroll Kuemper 55 1A 45 Mapleton MV-A-O-CO-U 12 -58.81 -66.55 -43 1A 18 Denver 0 1A 6 Aplington AP 21 13.39 23.80 21 1A 2 Durant 28 1A 17 Wilton 8 -8.63 -23.02 -20 1A 10 Dyersville Beckman 13 1A 11 Cascade 14 7.47 -1.26 1 1A 29 Eldora South Hardin 8 1A 9 Dike-New Hartford 33 33.68 41.23 25 1A 22 Emmetsburg 28 1A 3 Hawarden West Sioux 52 20.18 38.70 24 1A 31 Holstein Ridge View 7 1A 1 Western Christian 42 34.64 56.88 35 1A 12 Iowa City Regina 7 1A 8 Mediapolis 17 3.77 8.11 10 1A 14 Pella Christian 45 1A 38 Keosauqua Van Buren 0 -48.45 -50.70 -45 1A 15 Sigourney-Keota 35 1A 26 Pleasantville 13 -3.44 -20.75 -22 1A 4 Underwood 55 1A 39 Lake View East Sac 0 -54.76 -70.39 -55 1A 7 Van Meter 69 1A 40 Panora Panorama 3 -52.43 -69.72 -66 1A 20 Waterloo Columbus 7 1A 16 Monona MFL-MarMac 27 3.85 14.32 20 1A 5 West Branch 86 1A 46 Louisa-Muscatine 0 -71.36 -86.01 -86
17. 1A Rankings
Western Christian, Durant, West Sioux, Underwood, and West Branch fill the top 5. It continues to be difficult to know where to stop. I look forward to the week 5 rankings for this class.
18. 1A Games
#3 (3-1) Hawarden West Sioux @ #1 (3-1) Western Christian 2.84 55% #8 (4-0) Mediapolis @ #5 (4-0) West Branch 5.72 60%
Home teams are small favorites.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 1 Britt West Hancock 59 A 48 Sheffield West Fork 0 -60.60 -71.07 -59 A 52 Corydon Wayne 0 A 8 Lynnville-Sully 51 58.14 63.35 51 A 37 Earlham 13 A 12 Madrid 42 1.44 25.65 29 A 6 Wapsie Valley 42 A 21 Ackley AGWSR 14 -10.25 -19.40 -28 A 2 Grundy Center 47 A 29 Hudson 0 -18.65 -36.85 -47 A 53 Guttenberg CR 0 A 13 North Linn 63 52.90 60.02 63 A 10 LeMars Gehlen 28 A 15 Hinton 26 -7.07 -6.13 -2 A 35 Lisbon 20 A 9 Columbus Junction 49 10.69 29.06 29 A 26 Marcus MMCRU 34 A 5 Hartley HMS 66 24.32 29.67 32 A 16 Mount Ayr 13 A 4 Avoca AHSTW 41 9.99 25.40 28 A 3 Woodbury Central 41 A 38 Akron-Westfield 7 -43.74 -42.70 -34 A 7 Saint Ansgar 43 A 17 Mason City Newman 45 -28.18 -13.82 2 A 11 East Buchanan 34 A 14 Alburnett 27 7.16 -3.58 -7
20. A Rankings
West Hancock, Grundy Center, Woodbury Central, and AHSTW lead.
21. A Games
#8 (4-0) Lynnville-Sully is at #12 (3-1) Madrid; Lynnville-Sully is a 3-point favorite.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 27 Algona Garrigan 0 8 6 Newell-Fonda 19 31.25 25.65 19 8 5 Central City 44 8 10 Wyoming Midland 20 -13.06 -16.31 -24 8 37 Fort Dodge St Edmond 34 8 16 Harris-Lake Park 63 17.89 22.55 29 8 2 Don Bosco 63 8 50 Colo-NESCO 16 -58.47 -72.80 -47 8 9 Turkey Valley 62 8 60 Riceville 14 -55.74 -65.13 -48 8 12 Kingsley-Pierson 0 8 1 Remsen St Mary 49 26.94 32.40 49 8 8 Lenox 70 8 29 Afton East Union 36 -19.76 -16.88 -34 8 13 Southeast Warren 63 8 63 Seymour SMU 0 -72.71 -71.77 -63 8 40 Northwood-Kensett 6 8 15 West Bend-Mallard 57 35.39 25.86 51 8 14 Ruthven GTRA 62 8 53 North Iowa 15 -41.71 -44.62 -47 8 55 Springville 0 8 3 Easton Valley 66 69.06 82.56 66 8 7 Tabor Fremont-Mills 60 8 24 Bedford 28 -9.45 -19.08 -32 8 17 Tripoli 48 8 11 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 54 -1.49 6.00 6 8 4 Wayland WACO 54 8 21 Marengo Iowa Valley 26 -23.54 -31.20 -28
23. 8 Rankings
Remsen St Mary, Don Bosco, Easton Valley, Wayland WACO, and Central City lead.
24. 8 Games
#3 (3-1) Easton Valley @ #5 (4-0) Central City is the game of the week; Easton Valley is a 5-point favorite.