IAHSFB: week 7 post-game thoughts


Week 7 notes:

1. Rankings

http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/

2. Preamble

Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.

3. General thoughts:

(none)

4. 5A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
5A   4 Ankeny                72 5A  26 Des Moines North       0 -50.16 -52.56 -72
5A  14 Cedar Falls           34 5A  29 Dubuque Hempstead      7 -33.73 -36.52 -27
5A  15 CR Prairie             0 5A   3 Southeast Polk        41  28.18  27.13  41
5A  21 Davenport West         0 5A   7 CR Kennedy            44  30.96  30.40  44
5A  33 Des Moines East       16 5A   6 Sioux City East       65  63.99  63.12  49
5A  32 Des Moines Lincoln     0 5A  11 WDM Valley            54  52.97  56.03  54
5A   5 Marion Linn-Mar       35 5A  28 Ottumwa                7 -35.41 -42.86 -28
5A   2 Pleasant Valley       51 5A   8 Iowa City High        21  -1.10 -17.19 -30
5A  34 Sioux City West        6 5A  13 Urbandale             62  58.39  61.44  56
5A  16 Waukee                58 5A  30 CB Lincoln            14 -27.70 -29.99 -44
5A   9 Waukee Northwest      20 5A  10 Ankeny Centennial     14   5.58   1.54  -6
5A   1 WDM Dowling           51 5A  17 Ames                   7 -30.62 -34.34 -44

Pleasant Valley wins big over City High.

5. 5A Rankings

tier 1: Dowling, Pleasant Valley, Southeast Polk, Ankeny
tier 2: Linn-Mar, Sioux City East, Kennedy, City High, Northwest, Centennial, and Valley

6. 5A games

# 7 (6-1) CR Kennedy        @ #12 (4-3) Johnston        -4.72  65%
# 9 (4-3) Waukee Northwest  @ # 4 (6-1) Ankeny          15.30  89%
#10 (4-3) Ankeny Centennial @ # 3 (6-1) Southeast Polk  18.82  94%
#11 (4-3) WDM Valley        @ # 1 (6-1) WDM Dowling     22.08  96%

Kennedy is a 5-point favorite at Johnston.

7. 4A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
4A   7 Bondurant-Farrar      50 4A  30 Boone                  6 -50.99 -51.93 -44
4A   6 Carlisle              42 4A  11 Indianola             21  -1.73  -8.57 -21
4A  13 CR Washington         21 4A  14 Newton                 0   4.55  -3.77 -21
4A   2 CR Xavier             49 4A  17 Clear Creek-Amana      0 -39.18 -37.52 -49
4A  28 Clinton                7 4A   3 Eldridge North Scott  55  59.05  58.45  48
4A  34 Des Moines Hoover      0 4A  15 Dallas Center-Grimes  48  53.87  55.22  48
4A  26 Fort Madison           0 4A   5 Iowa City Liberty     49  42.12  41.51  49
4A  16 Glenwood              22 4A   4 CB Lewis Central      58  27.72  30.40  36
4A  10 Spencer               49 4A   9 Webster City          40  11.08   5.07  -9
4A  31 Waterloo East         22 4A   8 Western Dubuque       55  56.01  58.75  33
4A   1 Waverly-Shell Rock    52 4A  18 Mason City            10 -48.18 -46.36 -42

Spencer upsets Webster City. Washington has a big win over Newton.

8. 4A Rankings

Tier 1: Waverly-Shell Rock, Xavier
Tier 2: North Scott, Lewis Central, and Liberty

9. 4A Games

#11 (5-2) Indianola       @ #7 (6-1) Bondurant-Farrar     7.90  74%
# 8 (5-2) Western Dubuque @ #1 (7-0) Waverly-Shell Rock  29.98  99%
#12 (4-2) Norwalk         @ #6 (6-1) Carlisle            13.74  87%

Model expects Waverly-Shell Rock to win easily.

10. 3A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
3A   3 Adel ADM               7 3A   1 Harlan                42  -1.31  14.28  35
3A  35 Charles City           7 3A  15 Independence          47  49.77  47.36  40
3A   8 Creston COM           69 3A  36 Saydel                 0 -65.64 -66.32 -69
3A  17 Gilbert                6 3A   4 Humboldt              31  21.80  23.78  25
3A  16 Huxley Ballard        13 3A   6 Alleman North Polk    42  17.76  20.68  29
3A   7 West Delaware         39 3A  18 Hampton-Dumont-CAL    16 -13.35 -15.94 -23
3A  11 MOC-Floyd Valley      14 3A  14 Carroll                0   4.79  -2.61 -14
3A   2 Mount Vernon          49 3A  31 Maquoketa              7 -62.61 -60.30 -42
3A   9 Nevada                38 3A  19 Algona                14  -2.52  -8.10 -24
3A  13 Sergeant Bluff-Luton  34 3A  25 Boyden-Hull-R Valley  12  -8.04 -11.53 -22
3A   5 Solon                 45 3A  28 Fairfield             25 -37.29 -30.29 -20
3A  12 Van Horne Benton      28 3A  10 Davenport Assumption  14  12.70   4.99 -14

Benton upsets Assumption.
Harlan won the expected coin-flip game by 35.

11. 3A Rankings

Harlan an Mount Vernon lead. Humboldt is undefeated at #4.

Assumption (2-5), Sergeant Bluff-Luton (2-5), and Gilbert (1-6) remain in the top half at #10, #13 and #17.

12. 3A Games

#4 Humboldt is a 12-point favorite at #9 Nevada.

13. 2A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
2A  45 Davis County           8 2A   2 Williamsburg          77  75.87  77.93  69
2A  35 Chariton               7 2A  16 Prairie City-Monroe   42  14.52  27.52  35
2A   8 Cresco Crestwood      26 2A  12 Clear Lake             7  -2.40  -6.68 -19
2A   5 Dubuque Wahlert       63 2A  36 Oelwein                6 -42.60 -42.53 -57
2A  27 Forest City           18 2A  11 New Hampton           28  25.19  23.12  10
2A   6 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG   42 2A  19 Estherville LC        19 -14.58 -18.12 -23
2A   9 Inwood West Lyon      24 2A  25 Unity Christian        6 -23.21 -20.93 -18
2A  48 Jesup                  8 2A  10 Waukon                50  62.90  65.22  42
2A  15 Monticello            52 2A  31 Anamosa               24  -8.22 -18.86 -28
2A   7 Osage                 33 2A  41 Garner GHV            10 -35.27 -42.04 -23
2A  14 Red Oak                6 2A  29 Osceola Clarke        20 -26.37 -13.95  14
2A  24 Sheldon                0 2A   1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR  42  52.12  52.50  42
2A   3 Spirit Lake           56 2A  22 Clarion CGD           21 -28.94 -31.18 -35
2A   4 West Marshall         41 2A  26 Roland-Story           7 -20.88 -29.78 -34

Clarke upsets Red Oak.

14. 2A Rankings

Tier 1: Central Lyon
Tier 2: Williamsburg and Spirit Lake
Tier 3: West Marshall, Wahlert, and O-A-BC-IG

15. 2A Games

#7 (5-2) Osage is a 1-point underdog at #8 (5-2) Cresco Crestwood

16. 1A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1A   6 Aplington AP          48 1A  36 Manly Central Spring   7 -52.05 -51.62 -41
1A   4 Carroll Kuemper       42 1A  26 Treynor                7 -34.28 -36.86 -35
1A  13 Denver                30 1A   8 Dike-New Hartford     20  26.39   9.32 -10
1A  16 Durant                 8 1A   9 Mediapolis            28   7.30  11.56  20
1A  43 Eldon Cardinal         0 1A   7 Pella Christian       63  68.30  73.23  63
1A  11 Western Christian     42 1A  33 Sioux Central          0 -43.71 -43.76 -42
1A  12 Iowa City Regina       0 1A   1 West Branch           23  27.95  23.88  23
1A  28 Leon Central Decatur   6 1A  15 Sigourney-Keota       53  16.18  25.35  47
1A  10 Monona MFL-MarMac     33 1A  17 Cascade               20  -5.51  -9.98 -13
1A  34 Sibley-Ocheyedan      14 1A   3 Hawarden West Sioux   65  59.47  62.36  51
1A  27 Truro Interstate-35    7 1A   5 Van Meter             63  39.57  37.70  56
1A   2 Underwood             56 1A  42 West Monona            0 -69.17 -78.94 -56
1A  14 Waterloo Columbus     55 1A  47 Postville              0 -93.58 -87.13 -55

Denver upsets Dike-New Hartford.

17. 1A Rankings

West Branch, Underwood, West Sioux, Kuemper, and Van Meter lead.

18. 1A Games

#2 (7-1) Underwood is a 2-point favorite at #4 (7-0) Carroll Kuemper

19. A Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 A   2 Avoca AHSTW           40  A  29 Logan-Magnolia         0 -29.54 -37.41 -40
 A  12 Columbus Junction     57  A  51 Stanwood North Cedar   0 -68.45 -60.23 -57
 A  36 Conrad BCLUW           8  A   3 Grundy Center         56  48.39  46.44  48
 A  54 Guttenberg CR          0  A   7 East Buchanan         71  80.60  76.53  71
 A   5 Hartley HMS           55  A  20 Hinton                20 -14.60 -22.10 -35
 A   4 Lynnville-Sully       40  A  25 Ogden                  7 -23.03 -30.86 -33
 A  16 Madrid                67  A  56 Colfax-Mingo           6 -60.08 -60.60 -61
 A  32 Marcus MMCRU          20  A  14 LeMars Gehlen         60  22.41  27.92  40
 A  11 Mount Ayr             34  A  27 Earlham                0 -14.23 -24.10 -34
 A   8 Woodbury Central      36  A  18 Neola Tri-Center      34 -23.10 -16.23  -2
 A  42 Oakland Riverside     21  A  15 Southwest Valley      49  20.54  26.53  28
 A  13 Saint Ansgar           0  A   1 Britt West Hancock    32  16.04  29.85  32
 A  40 Traer North Tama       0  A   6 Wapsie Valley         41  42.32  43.71  41
 A   9 North Linn            35  A  26 Hudson                 0 -18.01 -25.57 -35
 A  41 Wapello                7  A  10 Alburnett             52  34.99  39.18  45
 

Woodbury Central, a pre-game 23-point favorite, wins by 2 over Tri-Center.

20. A Rankings

Tier 1: West Hancock
Tier 2: AHSTW, Grundy Center, Lynnville-Sully

Woodbury Central is undefeated at #8, and Columbus Junction is undefeated at #12.

21. A Games

#10 (6-1) Alburnett is a 2-point favorite at #12 (7-0) Columbus Junction

22. 8 Results

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
 8  30 Afton East Union       6  8   9 East Mills            52  17.51  23.78  46
 8  38 Algona Garrigan       44  8  15 Ruthven GTRA          66  26.21  25.02  22
 8   7 Anita CAM             68  8  36 Coon Rapids-Bayard    14 -35.55 -39.21 -54
 8  19 Audubon               26  8  13 West Harrison         35   7.45  10.63   9
 8  11 Central City          68  8  43 Maynard West Central  24 -39.00 -40.44 -44
 8  12 Gladbrook-Reinbeck    32  8   6 Don Bosco             35  31.96  19.83   3
 8  48 Glidden-Ralston        6  8  14 Newell-Fonda          62  38.07  42.15  56
 8  54 Griswold               0  8   4 Tabor Fremont-Mills   54  80.02  82.98  54
 8  23 Harris-Lake Park       8  8  16 West Bend-Mallard     46  -0.57   8.51  38
 8   8 Southeast Warren      60  8  42 Murray                 0 -40.69 -44.58 -60
 8  33 Martensdale-St Marys  18  8   5 Lenox                 66  30.87  40.46  48
 8   2 Easton Valley         62  8  35 Edgewood-Colesburg    20 -54.35 -55.75 -42
 8  34 Stanton-Essex          6  8  10 Bedford               50   9.98  27.03  44
 8  55 Westside Ar-We-Va      0  8   1 Remsen St Mary        75  93.30  95.41  75
 8  17 Winfield-Mt Union      0  8   3 Wayland WACO          43  23.57  33.39  43

23. 8 Rankings

Remsen St Mary, Easton Valley, Wayland WACO, and Fremont-Mills lead.

Lenox is undefeat at #5, Don Bosco at #6, West Harrison at #13.

Noting Remsen St Mary has played the #54th hardest schedule; Don Bosco schedule strength is #51.

24. 8 Games

#4 (6-1) Tabor Fremont-Mills is a 4-point favorite over #5 (7-0) Lenox.