Week 9 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/
2. Preamble
Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
(none)
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 9 Waukee Northwest 7 5A 1 WDM Dowling 41 22.79 25.12 34 5A 16 CR Prairie 0 5A 2 Southeast Polk 41 30.38 32.78 41 5A 6 Johnston 23 5A 3 Ankeny 13 17.20 12.14 -10 5A 7 WDM Valley 27 5A 13 Cedar Falls 13 -6.87 -8.45 -14
Johnston upsets Ankeny.
5. 5A Rankings
Dowling and Southeast Polk lead.
6. 5A games
#6 (8-3) Johnston vs #2 (10-1) Southeast Polk 17.99 91% #7 (7-4) WDM Valley vs #1 (10-1) WDM Dowling 23.27 96%
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 8 Indianola 6 4A 1 CR Xavier 23 22.38 22.65 17 4A 5 Eldridge North Scott 20 4A 3 Waverly-Shell Rock 10 12.77 6.40 -10 4A 12 Glenwood 24 4A 2 CB Lewis Central 47 29.99 29.48 23 4A 4 Carlisle 56 4A 7 Iowa City Liberty 28 -1.94 -7.90 -28
North Scott upsets Waverly-Shell Rock
8. 4A Rankings
Xavier and Lewis Central lead.
9. 4A Games
#5 ( 9-2) Eldridge North Scott vs #1 (11-0) CR Xavier 12.10 81% #4 (10-1) Carlisle vs #2 (12-0) CB Lewis Central 7.30 71%
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 9 Nevada 7 3A 1 Harlan 55 35.59 39.93 48 3A 6 Solon 0 3A 2 Mount Vernon 17 13.94 15.74 17 3A 12 Independence 26 3A 5 Humboldt 34 18.54 16.26 8 3A 4 Alleman North Polk 42 3A 3 Adel ADM 68 5.81 10.34 26
(no upsets)
11. 3A Rankings
Harlan leads.
12. 3A Games
#3 (10-1) Adel ADM vs #1 (10- 1) Harlan 16.08 88% #5 (10-1) Humboldt vs #2 (11- 0) Mount Vernon 13.45 84%
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 8 Inwood West Lyon 7 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 42 28.04 30.77 35 2A 6 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 19 2A 3 Spirit Lake 0 14.38 6.28 -19 2A 11 Cresco Crestwood 6 2A 5 Dubuque Wahlert 41 7.51 13.70 35 2A 21 Centerville 0 2A 2 Williamsburg 35 36.24 37.17 35
OA-BCIG upsets Spirit Lake.
14. 2A Rankings
Central Lyon and Willismsburg lead.
15. 2A Games
#6 (10- 1) Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG vs #1 (11-0) Central Lyon CL-G-LR 25.35 97% #5 ( 9- 2) Dubuque Wahlert vs #2 (11-0) Williamsburg 11.05 79%
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 9 Western Christian 20 1A 2 Hawarden West Sioux 49 15.35 19.56 29 1A 5 Monona MFL-MarMac 24 1A 4 West Branch 27 6.41 4.58 3 1A 15 Sigourney-Keota 0 1A 1 Van Meter 45 24.13 31.45 45 1A 6 Pella Christian 28 1A 3 Underwood 47 13.69 16.68 19
(no upsets)
Model predicts MFL-MarMac @ West Branch game well.
17. 1A Rankings
Van Meter, West Sioux, and Underwood lead.
18. 1A Games
#3 (11-1) Underwood vs #2 (10-1) Hawarden West Sioux 0.73 52% #4 (11-0) West Branch vs #1 (10-1) Van Meter 9.10 75%
What a nice set of games!
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 6 Hartley HMS 24 A 3 Woodbury Central 27 9.04 7.77 3 A 9 North Linn 21 A 1 Britt West Hancock 52 16.64 22.76 31 A 7 East Buchanan 6 A 2 Grundy Center 20 8.44 10.90 14 A 8 Avoca AHSTW 0 A 5 Lynnville-Sully 20 4.87 10.14 20
Prediction from last week: “Just for fun, I am highlighting all games. Based on the probabilites, there’s a 69% chance of at least one upset in Class A.”
Looks like the 31% probability arrived, no upsets this round.
20. A Rankings
West Hancock leads
21. A Games
#5 (11-0) Lynnville-Sully vs #1 (11-0) Britt West Hancock 10.16 77% #3 (11-0) Woodbury Central vs #2 (11-0) Grundy Center 2.72 58%
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 11 Ruthven GTRA 14 8 1 Remsen St Mary 63 39.04 43.86 49 8 6 Tabor Fremont-Mills 8 8 2 Lenox 32 14.42 17.66 24 8 14 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 36 8 4 Newell-Fonda 46 14.82 14.17 10 8 28 Montezuma 7 8 3 Wayland WACO 52 33.48 41.64 45
Prediction from last week: “As with Class A, I am posting all games. In this case there is a 74% chance of no upsets.”
In this case the 74% probability arrived, no upsets this round.
23. 8 Rankings
Remsen St Mary leads.
24. 8 Games
#2 (11-0) Lenox vs #1 (11-0) Remsen St Mary 20.22 93% #4 (10-1) Newell-Fonda vs #3 (12-0) Wayland WACO 11.44 80%