Week 9 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/
2. Preamble
Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
Five championships see #1 vs #2 matchups.
4. Class 5A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 6 WDM Valley 22 5A 1 WDM Dowling 21 23.27 19.91 -1 5A 7 Johnston 14 5A 2 Southeast Polk 35 17.99 18.90 21
Valley upsets Dowling. Post-game prediction is still 20 points. This is a big upset.
Southeast Polk is favored in the championship game by 18.
I stated in week 9, http://bcmoorerankings.com/2022/10/iahsfb-week-9-post-game-thoughts/, that I’d be surprised if someone outside of (Dowling, Southeast Polk, Ankeny, or Pleasant Valley) won the championship.
Valley is overperforming by about 11-points per game in the playoffs. This is still under the 18-point prediction (based on the season-long data).
Can Valley “pull” a final upset?
5. Class 4A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 4 Carlisle 21 4A 2 CB Lewis Central 42 7.30 10.19 21 4A 5 Eldridge North Scott 10 4A 1 CR Xavier 38 12.10 13.79 28
Xavier is favored by 2 — coin-flip game.
(I have no insights; I hope everyone plays well.)
6. Class 3A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 3 Adel ADM 28 3A 1 Harlan 49 16.08 16.72 21 3A 5 Humboldt 6 3A 2 Mount Vernon 14 13.45 12.63 8
No upsets; the two best teams are playing for the championship.
Harlan is a 14-point favorite.
7. Class 2A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 6 Dubuque Wahlert 7 2A 2 Williamsburg 31 11.05 16.70 24 2A 5 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 14 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 37 25.35 29.53 23
No upsets; the two best teams are playing for the championship.
Centtral Lyon is a 14-point favorite.
7. Class 1A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 5 West Branch 17 1A 2 Van Meter 48 9.10 16.05 31 1A 3 Underwood 7 1A 1 Hawarden West Sioux 47 0.73 12.56 40
No upsets; the two best teams are playing for the championship.
West Sioux is a 2-point favorite — coin-flip game.
8. Class A
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 4 Lynnville-Sully 14 A 1 Britt West Hancock 22 10.16 9.34 8 A 5 Woodbury Central 20 A 2 Grundy Center 49 2.72 9.12 29
No upsets; the two best teams are playing for the championship.
West Hancock is a 3-point favorite — coin-flip game.
9. Class 8
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 6 Newell-Fonda 21 8 3 Wayland WACO 29 11.44 11.88 8 8 2 Lenox 20 8 1 Remsen St Mary 42 20.22 20.19 22
No upsets.
Remsen St Mary is a 22-point favorite.