Week 4 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2023/latest/
2. Preamble
Numbers are accurate as of the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
Week 5 rankings are published with no bias. Three score are currenlty missing. I b
Week 5 rankings are the benchmark for understanding the championship contenders. 86% of championships are won by teams in the top 5 of the bcmoorerankings in week 5.
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 21 Ames 13 5A 10 WDM Valley 52 27.62 30.63 39 5A 9 Ankeny 48 5A 18 Iowa City West 21 -21.67 -24.10 -27 5A 5 CR Kennedy 61 5A 17 Iowa City High 34 -25.47 -27.43 -27 5A 36 Des Moines East 0 5A 3 Ankeny Centennial 72 94.92 88.34 72 5A 22 Dubuque Hempstead 7 5A 6 Bettendorf 49 47.04 43.48 42 5A 15 Iowa City Liberty 30 5A 13 CR Prairie 38 13.93 12.08 8 5A 14 Marion Linn-Mar 21 5A 12 Cedar Falls 33 12.27 13.44 12 5A 2 Southeast Polk 48 5A 16 Sioux City East 14 -34.54 -37.29 -34 5A 11 Pleasant Valley 56 5A 31 Dubuque Senior 19 -47.40 -46.82 -37 5A 26 Waterloo West 0 5A 7 Waukee Northwest 64 40.88 42.11 64 5A 4 Waukee 14 5A 8 Johnston 10 -8.44 -8.08 -4
No upsets.
Waukee and Johnston play any excellent game.
5. 5A Rankings
Dowling and SE Polk lead.
Bettendorf is still undefeated.
6. 5A games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 1 (5-0) WDM Dowling @ # 3 (3-2) Ankeny Centennial 119.58 -4.51 61% # 6 (5-0) Bettendorf @ # 5 (3-2) CR Kennedy 119.05 2.21 55% # 7 (3-2) Waukee Northwest @ #10 (1-4) WDM Valley 111.34 -3.88 60% #12 (3-2) Cedar Falls @ #11 (4-1) Pleasant Valley 108.14 2.75 57% # 9 (3-2) Ankeny @ #13 (3-2) CR Prairie 99.47 -4.52 61% #18 (2-3) Iowa City West @ #19 (4-1) CR Jefferson 83.34 -0.08 50% #27 (2-3) Davenport North @ #22 (3-2) Dubuque Hempstead 71.43 7.45 68%
This was to be the record for interesting games. 7 games with prediction of 7.5 points or less.
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 1 Adel ADM 42 4A 26 Boone 0 -55.76 -54.34 -42 4A 3 Bondurant-Farrar 42 4A 14 Newton 21 -23.01 -19.25 -21 4A 28 Burlington 0 4A 4 Eldridge North Scott 48 56.02 54.94 48 4A 19 Carlisle 14 4A 9 Pella 38 11.77 15.08 24 4A 7 CR Xavier 42 4A 34 Clinton 0 -60.99 -63.16 -42 4A 36 Des Moines North 0 4A 6 Alleman North Polk 57 71.84 78.49 57 4A 11 Glenwood 21 4A 2 CB Lewis Central 49 18.41 21.91 28 4A 10 Huxley Ballard 27 4A 13 Indianola 30 0.87 0.65 3 4A 16 LeMars 14 4A 25 Spencer 7 -21.04 -16.42 -7 4A 27 Mason City 0 4A 12 Decorah 42 39.36 35.87 42 4A 22 Waverly-Shell Rock 23 4A 5 Western Dubuque 35 33.37 34.29 12 4A 15 Winterset 17 4A 8 Norwalk 37 3.45 11.32 20
No upsets.
Ballard and Indianola play an excellent game.
Norwalk plays better than expected.
8. 4A Rankings
ADM, Lewis Central, Bondurant-Farrar, North Scott, Western Dubuque, and Nort Polk lead.
#20 Gilbert is still undefeated.
9. 4A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 4 (4-1) Eldridge North Scott @ # 7 (3-2) CR Xavier 102.18 -7.38 68% # 9 (3-2) Pella @ #14 (2-3) Newton 100.33 -1.49 54% # 6 (4-1) Alleman North Polk @ #10 (2-3) Huxley Ballard 98.06 -10.02 73% #11 (3-2) Glenwood @ #15 (2-3) Winterset 94.82 -2.97 57% #19 (1-4) Carlisle @ #20 (5-0) Gilbert 84.02 0.87 52%
Three games are currently believed to be coin-flip games. North Scott and North Polk are road favorites.
Pella-Newton and Glenwood-Winterset look to be excellent games.
Gilbert is a 1-point favorite to retain its unbeaten record.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 33 Charles City 0 3A 10 Algona 48 52.51 47.66 48 3A 14 Clear Lake 10 3A 17 Webster City 2 -2.22 -0.67 -8 3A 31 Fairfield 0 3A 11 Van Horne Benton 38 39.12 36.77 38 3A 24 Fort Madison 7 3A 3 Davenport Assumption 38 40.34 41.44 31 3A 15 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 7 3A 16 Humboldt 14 -1.73 2.01 7 3A 2 Harlan 22 3A 1 Creston 25 4.76 4.78 3 3A 6 Independence 39 3A 25 Central Clinton 14 -16.16 -26.64 -25 3A 28 Maquoketa 0 3A 13 West Delaware 28 25.10 26.84 28 3A 8 Mount Vernon 76 3A 36 Mount Pleasant 14 -65.75 -72.41 -62 3A 9 Nevada 49 3A 34 Perry 14 -55.69 -53.89 -35 3A 12 Sioux City Heelan 0 3A 4 Sioux Center 21 11.18 17.27 21 3A 7 Solon 40 3A 20 Grinnell 7 -11.22 -17.40 -33 3A 35 Tama South Tama 6 3A 5 Williamsburg 61 78.16 69.51 55
Clear Lake wins the tight game with Webster City.
Humboldt beats H-D-CAL.
Creston wins the #2 at #1 matchup.
Solon outperforms.
11. 3A Rankings
Creston, Harlan, Assumption, Sioux Center, and Williamsburg lead.
#14 Clear Lake is still undefeated.
12. 3A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 3 (4-1) Davenport Assumption @ # 8 (4-1) Mount Vernon 93.74 -11.54 76% #11 (4-1) Van Horne Benton @ # 7 (4-1) Solon 92.91 5.18 63% #10 (4-1) Algona @ #14 (5-0) Clear Lake 92.53 -3.31 58% #17 (3-2) Webster City @ #15 (4-1) Hampton-Dumont-CAL 89.98 2.78 57% #18 (3-2) Dubuque Wahlert @ # 6 (4-1) Independence 89.36 13.73 80% #22 (3-2) Keokuk @ #24 (3-2) Fort Madison 76.75 -3.60 59%
Assumption is the favorite at Mount Vernon.
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 5 Carroll Kuemper 39 2A 17 Greene County 3 -18.40 -23.18 -36 2A 10 Clarinda 44 2A 32 Truro Interstate-35 7 -36.99 -25.43 -37 2A 25 Clarion CGD 14 2A 15 Estherville LC 31 18.28 16.43 17 2A 22 Cresco Crestwood 20 2A 14 Waukon 34 8.77 12.71 14 2A 12 Des Moines Christian 47 2A 48 Saydel 0 -49.00 -43.61 -47 2A 31 Goose Lake Northeast 14 2A 16 Monticello 55 20.36 20.50 41 2A 2 Inwood West Lyon 20 2A 6 Western Christian 3 -16.39 -21.34 -17 2A 35 Milford Okoboji 0 2A 4 Spirit Lake 58 46.97 48.27 58 2A 24 Osceola Clarke 10 2A 1 Van Meter 48 61.12 61.90 38 2A 3 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 52 2A 7 Cherokee Washington 7 -21.73 -23.52 -45 2A 37 Sheldon 14 2A 11 Unity Christian 50 11.45 29.64 36 2A 9 North Fayette Valley 20 2A 8 Osage 8 22.01 4.61 -12
North Fayette Valley upsets Osage.
14. 2A Rankings
Van Meter, West Lyon, and Central Lyon lead.
Noting: these three teams are dramatically separated from the rest of the field.
15. 2A Games
#17 (3-2) Greene County @ #18 (3-2) Roland-Story 73.57 -1.16 53% # 7 (3-2) Cherokee Washington @ # 2 (5-0) Inwood West Lyon 72.75 30.12 97%
Greene County @ Roland-Story is the best game of the night.
Washington @ West Lyon is a top-10 matchup; West Lyon is an overwhelming favorite.
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 18 Aplington AP 0 1A 3 Denver 48 29.69 33.21 48 1A 43 Eddyville EBF 38 1A 12 Pella Christian 56 58.89 56.63 18 1A 15 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 19 1A 16 Holstein Ridge View 15 -2.04 1.11 -4 1A 2 Iowa City Regina 49 1A 32 Cascade 14 -56.86 -55.63 -35 1A 34 Manly Central Spring 0 1A 8 Dike-New Hartford 55 43.97 46.40 55 1A 33 Shenandoah 0 1A 1 Underwood 49 66.60 67.06 49 1A 14 Sigourney-Keota 31 1A 22 Pleasantville 24 -12.51 -8.29 -7 1A 9 SumnerFredericksburg 13 1A 6 Monona MFL-MarMac 9 29.38 5.87 -4 1A 5 Treynor 26 1A 7 Avoca AHSTW 25 -1.33 -2.09 -1 1A 11 West Branch 28 1A 39 Dyersville Beckman 3 -43.62 -44.38 -25 1A 10 Wilton 34 1A 45 Durant 6 -58.37 -58.33 -28
Two upsets:
SumnerFredericksburg beats MFL-MarMac by 4
O-A-BC-IG by 4 over Ridge View. Pre-game prediction was a 2-point win by O-A-BC-IG. Post-game, the model thinks Ridge View should have won by 1. These situations are very delicious! Next week, and as more data arrives, we will get further “predictions” of when “should” have happened.
Treynor by 1 over AHSTW (as predicted).
17. 1A Rankings
Underwood, Regina, and Denver lead.
#4 Grundy Center, #5 Treynor, #10 Wilton are undefeated.
18. 1A Games
#6 (4-1) Monona MFL-MarMac @ # 8 (3-2) Dike-New Hartford 95.51 -1.07 53% #1 (4-1) Underwood @ # 5 (5-0) Treynor 86.01 -15.17 83% #9 (4-1) SumnerFredericksburg @ # 3 (5-0) Denver 85.08 15.73 84% #2 (5-0) Iowa City Regina @ #11 (3-2) West Branch 81.36 -17.43 86%
MFL-MarMac @ D-NH is the best game of the week.
Underwood is a 15-point favorite @ Treynor.
Denver is a 15-point home favorite playing SumnerFredericksburg.
Regina @ West Branch is an excellent long-standing rivalry. Regina leads the series 18-11. Regina won 10 straight from 2005 to 2021. West Branch won the 2022 game 23-0 at home.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 4 Akron-Westfield 36 A 31 LeMars Gehlen 7 -18.88 -24.42 -29 A 9 Arlington Starmont 50 A 49 Stanwood North Cedar 8 -48.29 -48.35 -42 A 2 Britt West Hancock 62 A 53 Sheffield West Fork 0 -63.58 -66.30 -62 A 13 Earlham 6 A 5 Madrid 13 5.28 9.77 7 A 10 South Cent Calhoun 35 A 26 IKM-Manning 7 0.25 -12.71 -28 A 14 Lisbon 17 A 39 Packwood Pekin 7 -34.16 -26.08 -10 A 15 Lynnville-Sully 26 A 43 Corydon Wayne 10 -32.57 -31.71 -16 A 12 Marcus MMCRU 42 A 36 Sibley-Ocheyedan 0 -2.73 -22.64 -42 A 3 Woodbury Central 41 A 41 CB St Albert 6 -40.29 -40.33 -35 A 23 Neola Tri-Center 21 A 16 Logan-Magnolia 34 4.28 9.53 13 A 18 Oakland Riverside 15 A 7 Guthrie Center GC-AC 27 14.77 13.41 12 A 1 Saint Ansgar 28 A 19 Nashua-Plainfield 6 -30.90 -23.62 -22 A 28 Traer North Tama 0 A 8 Wapsie Valley 45 28.80 23.27 45 A 6 North Linn 14 A 11 East Buchanan 41 -28.75 -1.39 27
#11 East Buchanan upsets #6 North Linn.
20. A Rankings
Saint Ansgar and West Hancock lead.
#3 Woodbury Central, #5 Madrid, #7 GC-AC, #14 Lisbon, #25 Lake Mills are undefeated.
21. A Games
# 2 (4-1) Britt West Hancock @ #10 (4-1) South Cent Calhoun 73.40 -7.45 #13 (3-2) Earlham @ #22 (3-2) Panora Panorama 63.64 -4.80
West Hancock and Earlham are the road favorites.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 14 Algona Garrigan 60 8 65 Rockford 0 -77.97 -74.74 -60 8 1 Anita CAM 36 8 25 Exira-Elk Horn-Kimb 12 -38.59 -38.44 -24 8 12 Audubon 22 8 27 Coon Rapids-Bayard 16 -23.06 -15.09 -6 8 2 Bedford 76 8 57 Mormon Trail 6 -82.41 -81.36 -70 8 66 Bussey Twin Cedars 6 8 16 Moravia 60 81.23 78.73 54 8 8 Clarksville 62 8 39 Turkey Valley 22 -10.37 -30.64 -40 8 7 Don Bosco 58 8 59 Maynard West Central 0 -76.89 -69.36 -58 8 32 Janesville 8 8 3 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 38 42.70 33.66 30 8 28 Harris-Lake Park 18 8 9 West Bend-Mallard 42 24.05 22.62 24 8 4 Lenox 54 8 37 Afton East Union 8 -34.35 -34.73 -46 8 53 English Valleys 6 8 5 Winfield-Mt Union 74 60.82 65.16 68 8 48 Easton Valley 14 8 10 Wayland WACO 56 40.66 44.08 42 8 6 Remsen St Mary 51 8 35 Newell-Fonda 18 -22.11 -26.72 -33
No upsets.
23. 8 Rankings
CAM, Bedford, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, Lenox, Winfield-Mount Union lead.
#6 Remsen St Mary and #8 Clarksville are undefeated.
24. 8 Games
# 5 (5-0) Winfield-Mt Union @ #11 (4-1) Marengo Iowa Valley 89.71 -7.68 68%
#5 Winfield-Mount Union is a 7-point favorite.