Week 6 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2023/latest/
2. Preamble
Numbers are accurate as of the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
Week 6 rankings are published with no bias.
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 9 Ankeny 17 5A 13 CR Prairie 14 -4.53 -5.13 -3 5A 8 Bettendorf 14 5A 3 CR Kennedy 34 2.10 12.46 20 5A 12 Cedar Falls 28 5A 10 Pleasant Valley 31 2.69 3.00 3 5A 29 CR Washington 10 5A 14 Iowa City Liberty 60 25.44 35.67 50 5A 30 Des Moines Lincoln 0 5A 4 Waukee 58 60.71 64.88 58 5A 16 Iowa City High 61 5A 34 Davenport Central 0 -31.69 -41.07 -61 5A 7 Johnston 35 5A 2 Southeast Polk 38 20.37 15.64 3 5A 23 Muscatine 9 5A 15 Marion Linn-Mar 35 21.44 24.95 26 5A 6 Waukee Northwest 31 5A 11 WDM Valley 28 -3.93 -4.63 -3 5A 1 WDM Dowling 30 5A 5 Ankeny Centennial 17 -4.56 -8.72 -13
No upsets.
Ankeny, 5-point favorite, wins by 3 points.
Kenendy, 2-point favorite, has a big win over Bettendorf.
Pleasant Valley, 3-point favorite, wins by 3 points.
Southeast Polk, 20-point favorite, wins by only 3 points.
Waukee Northwest, 4-point favorite, wins by 3 points.
5. 5A Rankings
Dowling and SE Polk lead.
6. 5A games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 2 (6-0) Southeast Polk @ #4 (5-1) Waukee 129.64 -3.72 59%
Southeast Polk is a 4-point favorite, 60%. The model is expecting a great game.
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 1 Adel ADM 63 4A 36 Des Moines North 8 -86.25 -78.24 -55 4A 6 Alleman North Polk 6 4A 9 Huxley Ballard 7 -9.84 -8.13 1 4A 27 Boone 0 4A 13 Indianola 35 32.15 33.20 35 4A 4 CB Lewis Central 63 4A 29 CB Jefferson 13 -58.76 -52.51 -50 4A 8 Decorah 35 4A 21 Waverly-Shell Rock 20 -14.08 -16.19 -15 4A 5 Eldridge North Scott 20 4A 7 CR Xavier 26 -7.27 -0.29 6 4A 2 Western Dubuque 35 4A 20 Marion 7 -27.37 -29.20 -28 4A 10 Glenwood 42 4A 17 Winterset 14 -2.66 -11.74 -28 4A 12 Norwalk 7 4A 16 Dallas Center-Grimes 17 -17.11 -4.96 10 4A 11 Pella 18 4A 14 Newton 21 -1.91 -3.49 3 4A 34 Sioux City West 7 4A 15 LeMars 56 50.71 50.72 49
Lots of upsets in the top-16:
Ballard, 10-point underdog, beats North Polk by 1.
Xavier, 7-point underdog, beats North Scott by 6.
Dallas Center-Grimes, 17-point underdog, beats, Norwalk by 10.
Newton, 2-point underdog, beats Pella by 3.
Also of note:
#19 Gilbert (6-0), a pre-game 1-point underdog, beats #23 Carlisle by 3 in overtime.
8. 4A Rankings
ADM, Western Dubuque, Bondurant-Farar, and Lewis Central lead.
#19 Gilbert is still undefeated.
9. 4A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 9 (3-3) Huxley Ballard @ #1 (5-1) Adel ADM 99.35 18.79 86% #19 (6-0) Gilbert @ #3 (5-1) Bondurant-Farrar 77.38 29.82 96%
These are the two games of interest for me. ADM is a 19-point favorite in the top-10 matchup. Bondurant-Farrar is a 30-point favorite at home against undefeated Gilbert.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 10 Algona 28 3A 15 Clear Lake 29 -3.34 -2.22 1 3A 2 Creston 39 3A 29 Atlantic 0 -45.95 -45.33 -39 3A 6 Davenport Assumption 7 3A 5 Mount Vernon 24 -11.61 2.81 17 3A 16 Dubuque Wahlert 14 3A 9 Independence 19 13.43 12.60 5 3A 30 Knoxville 0 3A 11 Nevada 43 35.46 37.79 43 3A 7 West Delaware 41 3A 28 Center Point-Urbana 0 -22.58 -33.85 -41 3A 35 Perry 7 3A 3 Harlan 49 72.73 71.57 42 3A 1 Sioux Center 42 3A 21 Boyden-Hull-R Valley 14 -32.35 -34.01 -28 3A 12 Van Horne Benton 13 3A 8 Solon 16 5.03 2.93 3 3A 14 Webster City 35 3A 19 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 6 2.64 -10.23 -29 3A 4 Williamsburg 56 3A 31 Fairfield 14 -43.14 -45.54 -42
Clear Lake, 3-point underdog, beats Algona by 1.
Mount Vernon, 12-point underdog, beats Assumption by 17.
Webster City, 3-point underog, beats Hampton-Dumont-CAL by 29.
11. 3A Rankings
Sioux Center, Creston, Harlan, Williamsburg, Mount Vernon, and Assumption lead.
#15 Clear Lake is still undefeated.
12. 3A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob #4 (6-0) Williamsburg @ #8 (5-1) Solon 108.85 -6.83 66%
Williamsburg is a 7-point road favorite over Solon.
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 37 Chariton 0 2A 2 Van Meter 70 70.54 73.32 70 2A 7 Cherokee Washington 8 2A 3 Inwood West Lyon 38 30.00 34.11 30 2A 18 Cresco Crestwood 22 2A 9 Osage 16 22.38 11.59 -6 2A 16 Des Moines Christian 7 2A 4 Carroll Kuemper 61 22.27 25.32 54 2A 6 Western Christian 38 2A 32 Sheldon 7 -40.99 -41.42 -31 2A 19 Greene County 31 2A 15 Roland-Story 62 -1.25 7.77 31 2A 10 Prairie City-Monroe 49 2A 45 Vinton-Shellsburg 15 -39.10 -44.39 -34 2A 8 Monticello 56 2A 22 Camanche 14 -5.97 -22.48 -42 2A 11 Unity Christian 12 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 39 37.97 46.25 27 2A 5 Spirit Lake 42 2A 14 Estherville LC 33 -21.80 -17.58 -9 2A 13 Waukon 49 2A 41 Oelwein 20 -36.27 -36.59 -29 2A 12 North Fayette Valley 14 2A 21 New Hampton 30 -24.87 -8.09 16
Crestwood, 22-point underdog, beats Osage by 6.
Roland-Story, 1-point underdog, beats Greene County by 31.
Monticello, 6-point favorite, wins by 42.
New Hampton, 25-point underdog, wins by 16.
14. 2A Rankings
Central Lyon, Van Meter, and West Lyon lead.
Noting: these three teams are dramatically separated from the rest of the field (first noted in week 5).
15. 2A Games
# 1 (6-0) Central Lyon CL-G-LR @ # 6 (5-1) Western Christian 100.20 -24.92 93% #15 (4-2) Roland-Story @ #16 (3-3) Des Moines Christian 82.26 0.61 51%
Central Lyon is a big favorite in the top-10 matchup.
Roland-Story is again a 1-point underdog (just like in their week 6 matchup with Greene County).
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 7 Avoca AHSTW 49 1A 41 Missouri Valley 0 -51.04 -54.23 -49 1A 21 Eldora South Hardin 14 1A 6 Grundy Center 42 29.81 26.60 28 1A 27 Hawarden West Sioux 7 1A 13 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 41 21.94 23.92 34 1A 3 Iowa City Regina 17 1A 9 West Branch 21 -17.67 -9.64 4 1A 14 South Hamilton 36 1A 30 Ogden 0 -11.72 -24.08 -36 1A 24 Lawton-Bronson 13 1A 15 Holstein Ridge View 22 15.34 13.63 9 1A 2 Monona MFL-MarMac 34 1A 8 Dike-New Hartford 14 -1.10 -13.16 -20 1A 18 Pella Christian 15 1A 12 Sigourney-Keota 42 -2.56 7.06 27 1A 5 SumnerFredericksburg 19 1A 4 Denver 7 15.65 4.43 -12 1A 1 Underwood 49 1A 11 Treynor 0 -15.23 -32.85 -49 1A 10 Waterloo Columbus 35 1A 26 Alburnett 7 -15.98 -21.81 -28 1A 16 Wilton 28 1A 28 Cascade 12 -36.97 -21.66 -16
Upsets:
West Branch, 18-point underdog, beats Regina by 4.
SumnerFredericksburg, 15-point underdoge, beats Denver by 12.
Sigourney-Keota, 3-point underdog, beats Pella Christian by 27.
Big win:
MFL-MarMac has a big 20-point win over Dike-New Hartford (coin-flip game expected).
17. 1A Rankings
Underwood leads.
#6 Grundy Center and #16 Wilton are undefeated.
18. 1A Games
#4 (5-1) Denver @ # 2 (5-1) Monona MFL-MarMac 102.09 8.64 69% #9 (4-2) West Branch @ #16 (6-0) Wilton 84.12 -7.99 68%
MFL-MarMac is a 9-point favorite over Denver.
West Branch is a 8-point favorite over Wilton and holds a 5-game winning streak against Wilton.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 1 Britt West Hancock 57 A 15 South Cent Calhoun 6 -7.46 -35.16 -51 A 12 Maquoketa Valley 30 A 31 Bellevue 15 -7.76 -12.99 -15 A 19 Earlham 21 A 13 Panora Panorama 49 -4.85 7.53 28 A 6 Wapsie Valley 55 A 43 Ackley AGWSR 0 -32.76 -35.61 -55 A 49 Guttenberg CR 0 A 5 North Linn 42 55.51 52.86 42 A 8 Madrid 26 A 20 Leon Central Decatur 7 -10.41 -12.42 -19 A 25 IKM-Manning 31 A 11 Guthrie Center GC-AC 35 18.97 14.25 4 A 10 Marcus MMCRU 34 A 4 Akron-Westfield 35 11.35 6.53 1 A 18 Mount Ayr 16 A 16 Lynnville-Sully 23 8.20 4.14 7 A 3 Woodbury Central 43 A 33 Kingsley K-P-RV 0 -29.30 -29.97 -43 A 56 Postville 0 A 7 Arlington Starmont 57 80.53 78.00 57 A 2 Saint Ansgar 61 A 37 Mason City Newman 0 -44.73 -48.82 -61 A 55 Wapello 0 A 14 Lisbon 68 67.84 66.04 68 A 9 East Buchanan 53 A 50 Stanwood North Cedar 6 -45.80 -49.60 -47
West Hancock, 7-point favorite, wins by 51 over South Central Calhoun.
Panorama, 5-point underdog, wins by 28 over Earlham.
20. A Rankings
West Hancock and Saint Ansgar lead.
#3 Woodbury Central, #8 Madrid, #11 GC-AC, #14 Lisbon, #23 Lake Mills are undefeated.
21. A Games
#15 (4-2) South Cent Calhoun @ #13 (4-2) Panora Panorama 72.13 3.79 59% # 5 (5-1) North Linn @ #12 (5-1) Maquoketa Valley 70.71 -6.32 64% #22 (2-4) Oakland Riverside @ #19 (3-3) Earlham 64.96 3.81 59% #11 (6-0) Guthrie Center GC-AC @ #18 (3-3) Mount Ayr 64.84 -6.37 65% #26 (4-2) Nashua-Plainfield @ #21 (5-1) Greene North Butler 64.35 6.31 64%
Favorites: Panorama, North Linn, Earlham, GC-AC, and North Butler.
Given these percentage there are going to be 2 upsets.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 8 Central City 93 8 46 Easton Valley 22 -37.96 -43.55 -71 8 13 Colo-NESCO 46 8 53 English Valleys 0 -48.53 -52.62 -46 8 54 Garwin GMG 22 8 11 Clarksville 90 68.55 68.05 68 8 19 Glidden-Ralston 20 8 10 Audubon 34 10.68 13.02 14 8 44 Murray 21 8 7 Lenox 86 48.23 45.42 65 8 32 Newell-Fonda 28 8 16 Dunlap Boyer Valley 48 16.50 17.16 20 8 3 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 56 8 40 Brooklyn BGM 14 -32.25 -42.18 -42 8 41 Sidney 6 8 1 Anita CAM 64 60.92 61.27 58 8 58 Sioux City Siouxland 6 8 14 Algona Garrigan 69 68.61 67.50 63 8 45 Stanton-Essex 0 8 2 Bedford 17 60.55 64.17 17 8 12 Wayland WACO 67 8 60 New London 8 -67.51 -73.17 -59 8 9 West Bend-Mallard 62 8 52 North Iowa 16 -59.56 -56.94 -46 8 30 Westside Ar-We-Va 6 8 6 Remsen St Mary 47 30.17 29.25 41 8 4 Winfield-Mt Union 76 8 15 Marengo Iowa Valley 14 -7.81 -14.35 -62 8 49 Wyoming Midland 0 8 5 Don Bosco 63 44.70 54.79 63
Two notes:
Bedford, 61-point favorite, wins by 17 over Stanton-Essex.
Winfield-Mount Union, 8-point favorite, wins by 62 over Iowa Valley.
23. 8 Rankings
CAM, Bedford, Gladbrook-Reinbeck, and Winfield-Mount Union lead.
#6 Remsen St Mary and #11 Clarksville are undefeated.
24. 8 Games
#11 (7-0) Clarksville @ #3 (6-0) Gladbrook-Reinbeck 103.78 14.89 81%
#3 Gladbrook-Reinbeck is a 15-point favorite.