Week 7 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2023/latest/
2. Preamble
Numbers are accurate as of the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
Week 7 rankings are published with no bias.
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 4 Ankeny Centennial 43 5A 27 Des Moines Roosevelt 7 -51.22 -50.42 -36 5A 12 Cedar Falls 42 5A 30 Dubuque Senior 7 -49.11 -45.54 -35 5A 13 CR Prairie 48 5A 26 CR Jefferson 7 -29.10 -33.25 -41 5A 31 CR Washington 8 5A 16 Iowa City West 58 37.26 35.92 50 5A 34 Davenport Central 0 5A 8 Bettendorf 63 62.02 61.47 63 5A 14 Iowa City Liberty 21 5A 9 Ankeny 40 15.17 15.76 19 5A 5 Johnston 42 5A 32 CB Lincoln 10 -57.23 -54.80 -32 5A 33 Ottumwa 14 5A 7 Waukee Northwest 76 65.07 61.33 62 5A 1 Southeast Polk 38 5A 6 Waukee 0 -3.64 -17.40 -38 5A 11 Pleasant Valley 48 5A 22 Muscatine 21 -34.34 -32.90 -27 5A 20 Urbandale 0 5A 2 WDM Dowling 29 53.99 52.38 29 5A 10 WDM Valley 49 5A 21 Waterloo West 0 -34.34 -33.26 -49
SE Polk, 3-point favorite, wins by 38 points.
5. 5A Rankings
Dowling and SE Polk lead.
6. 5A games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob #2 (7-0) WDM Dowling @ # 1 (7-0) Southeast Polk 134.62 2.73 59% #7 (5-2) Waukee Northwest @ # 4 (4-3) Ankeny Centennial 123.46 9.52 78% #9 (5-2) Ankeny @ #10 (2-5) WDM Valley 121.50 -0.42 51%
Southeast Polk is a 3-point favorite. Centennial is a 10-point favorite. Ankeny-Valley is a top-10, coin-flip game.
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 30 CB Jefferson 6 4A 12 Norwalk 62 40.76 38.99 56 4A 36 Des Moines Hoover 8 4A 14 Pella 54 60.67 63.60 46 4A 21 Gilbert 7 4A 1 Bondurant-Farrar 38 30.00 39.49 31 4A 16 Dallas Center-Grimes 14 4A 10 Glenwood 21 9.70 7.59 7 4A 8 Huxley Ballard 13 4A 2 Adel ADM 20 18.81 16.09 7 4A 15 Indianola 0 4A 5 Alleman North Polk 27 12.71 18.20 27 4A 11 LeMars 42 4A 25 Fort Dodge 7 -8.91 -19.33 -35 4A 17 Marion 28 4A 9 Decorah 21 19.53 10.44 -7 4A 13 Newton 44 4A 24 Carlisle 6 -8.46 -18.11 -38 4A 29 Oskaloosa 0 4A 6 CR Xavier 42 51.98 46.56 42 4A 22 Clear Creek-Amana 14 4A 7 Eldridge North Scott 16 33.92 21.46 2 4A 32 Waterloo East 29 4A 4 Western Dubuque 52 70.86 63.84 23 4A 20 Winterset 6 4A 3 CB Lewis Central 42 28.97 30.86 36
LeMars, 9-point favorite, wins by 35.
Marion, 20-pont underdog, wins by 7.
Newton, 8-point favorite, wins by 38.
North Scott, 34-point favorite, wins by 2.
8. 4A Rankings
Bondurant-Farrar, ADM, Lewis Central, Western Dubuque, and North Polk lead.
9. 4A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob #9 (5-2) Decorah @ # 4 (6-1) Western Dubuque 100.86 14.67 89% #3 (5-2) CB Lewis Central @ #12 (5-2) Norwalk 99.98 -15.17 90% #2 (6-1) Adel ADM @ #15 (4-3) Indianola 94.01 -19.03 94% #1 (6-1) Bondurant-Farrar @ #14 (4-3) Pella 92.15 -23.47 97%
Favorites: Western Dubuque, Lewis Central, ADM, and Bondurant-Farrar.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 21 Boyden-Hull-R Valley 12 3A 11 Sioux City Heelan 42 23.07 22.43 30 3A 2 Creston 56 3A 29 Knoxville 14 -45.46 -38.62 -42 3A 5 Davenport Assumption 35 3A 32 Washington 0 -47.71 -46.37 -35 3A 18 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 6 3A 8 Clear Lake 21 13.64 14.81 15 3A 7 Harlan 20 3A 4 Nevada 39 -7.95 4.27 19 3A 19 Humboldt 17 3A 10 Algona 34 12.49 13.17 17 3A 14 West Delaware 13 3A 16 Dubuque Wahlert 14 -9.39 -4.28 1 3A 28 Maquoketa 0 3A 12 Independence 41 33.18 30.50 41 3A 3 Mount Vernon 45 3A 26 Fort Madison 7 -30.38 -33.47 -38 3A 1 Sioux Center 19 3A 17 MOC-Floyd Valley 12 -24.61 -16.87 -7 3A 13 Van Horne Benton 20 3A 20 Grinnell 21 -17.78 -13.82 1 3A 15 Webster City 49 3A 33 Charles City 13 -39.60 -39.35 -36 3A 6 Williamsburg 14 3A 9 Solon 21 -6.88 -1.39 7
Nevada, 8-point underdog, beats Harlan by 19.
West Delaware, 9-point underdog, beats Wahlert by 1.
Grinnell, 18-point underdog, beats Benton by 1.
Solon, 7-point underdog, beats Williamsburg by 7.
11. 3A Rankings
Sioux Center, Creston, Mount Vernon, Nevada, Assumption, Williamsburg lead.
It is really unclear where to stop listing contenders. This is a competitive class.
#8 Clear Lake is still undefeated.
12. 3A Games
Rnk (W-L) Visitor @ Rnk (W-L) Home Matchup Line Prob # 4 (6-1) Nevada @ # 2 (7-0) Creston 104.46 3.44 61% #12 (6-1) Independence @ #14 (4-3) West Delaware 104.24 0.52 52% #10 (5-2) Algona @ #15 (5-2) Webster City 104.12 -2.72 59%
Creston is a 3-point favorite.
West Delaware leads the coin-flip probability.
Algona is a 3-point favorite.
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 4 Carroll Kuemper 56 2A 47 Saydel 14 -69.09 -69.80 -42 2A 16 Clarinda 50 2A 38 Chariton 14 -23.48 -31.04 -36 2A 13 Estherville LC 35 2A 28 Forest City 14 -19.67 -18.52 -21 2A 42 Garner GHV 6 2A 5 Spirit Lake 62 60.33 59.14 56 2A 43 Oelwein 8 2A 14 North Fayette Valley 50 40.16 41.55 42 2A 15 Unity Christian 16 2A 8 Cherokee Washington 20 7.24 8.81 4 2A 11 Osage 8 2A 12 Waukon 20 -2.05 1.05 12 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 42 2A 6 Western Christian 7 -25.14 -29.68 -35 2A 30 Sheldon 7 2A 3 Inwood West Lyon 35 64.58 59.78 28 2A 32 West Marshall 20 2A 9 Prairie City-Monroe 49 26.02 29.50 29 2A 10 Roland-Story 41 2A 19 Des Moines Christian 14 0.60 -9.44 -27 2A 2 Van Meter 63 2A 40 Centerville 6 -71.94 -71.95 -57 2A 44 West Liberty 3 2A 7 Monticello 48 48.36 51.39 45
Waukon, 2-point underdog, beats Osage by 12.
Roland-Story, 1-point underdog, beats DM Christian by 27.
14. 2A Rankings
Central Lyon, Van Meter, and West Lyon lead.
Noting: these three teams are dramatically separated from the rest of the field (first noted in week 5).
15. 2A Games
#3 (7-0) Inwood West Lyon @ #1 (7-0) Central Lyon CL-G-LR 117.68 9.65 79%
Central Lyon is a 10-point favorite over West Lyon.
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 26 Alburnett 0 1A 5 Grundy Center 35 33.55 32.39 35 1A 46 Colfax-Mingo 0 1A 15 Sigourney-Keota 82 71.61 69.65 82 1A 3 Denver 7 1A 2 Monona MFL-MarMac 28 8.63 8.50 21 1A 7 Dike-New Hartford 41 1A 20 Aplington AP 8 -16.40 -19.88 -33 1A 32 Dyersville Beckman 21 1A 6 Iowa City Regina 48 49.33 45.26 27 1A 13 Emmetsburg 49 1A 45 Eagle Grove 8 -61.81 -60.08 -41 1A 16 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 12 1A 19 Hinton 6 -6.27 -8.48 -6 1A 43 East Marshall 0 1A 11 Waterloo Columbus 50 65.27 62.88 50 1A 37 Manly Central Spring 0 1A 4 SumnerFredericksburg 47 51.73 52.69 47 1A 42 Missouri Valley 0 1A 1 Underwood 63 83.54 84.46 63 1A 40 Red Oak 12 1A 9 Avoca AHSTW 56 56.78 54.79 44 1A 12 Treynor 40 1A 28 Shenandoah 9 -29.93 -24.71 -31 1A 10 West Branch 17 1A 14 Wilton 21 -8.01 -3.62 4 1A 24 Woodward-Granger 0 1A 8 South Hamilton 50 11.66 26.80 50
Wilton, 8-point underdog, beats West Branch by 4.
17. 1A Rankings
Underwood leads.
#5 Grundy Center and #14 Wilton are undefeated.
18. 1A Games
#7 (4-3) Dike-New Hartford @ # 3 (5-2) Denver 97.32 5.43 67% #6 (6-1) Iowa City Regina @ #14 (7-0) Wilton 86.60 -12.06 84%
Denver is a 5-point favorite over Dike-New Hartford.
Regina is a 12-point favorite over Wilton.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 6 Akron-Westfield 25 A 45 Alta-Aurelia 0 -42.04 -39.74 -25 A 5 Arlington Starmont 33 A 30 Bellevue 12 -20.97 -20.42 -21 A 50 Conrad BCLUW 8 A 4 Wapsie Valley 50 61.50 55.49 42 A 12 Guthrie Center GC-AC 42 A 26 Mount Ayr 18 -6.40 -13.16 -24 A 13 South Cent Calhoun 39 A 17 Panora Panorama 13 3.81 -4.82 -26 A 21 Lake Mills 0 A 1 Britt West Hancock 41 44.56 44.11 41 A 15 Lisbon 63 A 48 Danville 14 -31.76 -34.48 -49 A 16 Logan-Magnolia 43 A 44 CB St Albert 18 -18.34 -24.60 -25 A 14 Lynnville-Sully 33 A 35 Martensdale-St Marys 12 -16.70 -20.27 -21 A 28 Neola Tri-Center 21 A 3 Woodbury Central 41 28.23 28.72 20 A 40 North Mahaska 0 A 11 Madrid 41 30.54 33.41 41 A 52 Sheffield West Fork 8 A 2 Saint Ansgar 69 80.09 78.55 61 A 39 Sloan Westwood 7 A 9 Marcus MMCRU 42 35.25 34.89 35 A 8 North Linn 15 A 10 Maquoketa Valley 22 -6.04 -0.27 7 A 7 East Buchanan 45 A 49 Guttenberg CR 0 -47.77 -49.04 -45
South Central Calhoun, 4-point underdog, beats Panorama by 26.
Maquoketa Valley, 6-point underdog, beats North Linn by 7.
20. A Rankings
West Hancock and Saint Ansgar lead.
#3 Woodbury Central, #11 Madrid, #12 GC-AC, #15 Lisbon are undefeated.
21. A Games
#10 (6-1) Maquoketa Valley @ #5 (6-1) Arlington Starmont 71.02 6.46 70%
Starmont is a 6-point favorite.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 10 Algona Garrigan 48 8 32 Ruthven GTRA 20 -15.38 -23.15 -28 8 8 Audubon 68 8 45 Collins-Maxwell 18 -35.75 -37.65 -50 8 1 Bedford 87 8 48 Lamoni 6 -76.48 -68.68 -81 8 12 Central City 44 8 42 Lone Tree 13 -28.85 -27.69 -31 8 11 Clarksville 38 8 6 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 36 14.88 12.29 -2 8 20 Fort Dodge St Edmond 48 8 13 Colo-NESCO 42 13.18 9.94 -6 8 55 Mormon Trail 0 8 2 Winfield-Mt Union 1 84.04 91.01 1 8 7 Don Bosco 59 8 36 Turkey Valley 14 -33.51 -31.55 -45 8 4 Lenox 60 8 28 Southeast Warren 18 -29.32 -31.63 -42 8 14 Moravia 74 8 60 New London 14 -62.97 -72.12 -60 8 53 English Valleys 6 8 15 Wayland WACO 51 59.40 57.09 45 8 40 Northwood-Kensett 7 8 9 West Bend-Mallard 60 34.33 34.86 53 8 5 Remsen St Mary 56 8 21 Woodbine 26 -16.90 -23.60 -30 8 16 Tabor Fremont-Mills 20 8 3 Anita CAM 37 41.53 29.28 17
Clarksville, 15-point underdog, beats Gladbrook-Reinbeck by 2.
St Edmond, 13-point undedog, beats Colo-NESCO by 6.
23. 8 Rankings
Bedford, Winfield-Mount Union, and CAM lead.
#5 Remsen St Mary and #11 Clarksville are undefeated.
24. 8 Games
#19 (5-2) Glidden-Ralston @ #20 (4-3) Fort Dodge St Edmond 102.17 -4.59 65%
Glidden-Ralston is a 5-point favorite.