Week 9 notes:
1. Rankings
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2022/
2. Preamble
Numbers are presented at the time of writing. Scores may be corrected during the week. As this happens, rankings will be updated; this exposition will not.
3. General thoughts:
(none)
4. 5A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 5A 24 Davenport West 0 5A 1 WDM Dowling 35 51.89 54.87 35 5A 8 Waukee Northwest 9 5A 11 CR Kennedy 0 0.64 -1.18 -9 5A 17 Ames 3 5A 2 Southeast Polk 49 36.20 34.93 46 5A 12 Marion Linn-Mar 28 5A 14 CR Prairie 50 -9.14 -1.59 22 5A 5 Sioux City East 0 5A 3 Ankeny 17 12.97 14.27 17 5A 6 Iowa City High 31 5A 9 Johnston 38 1.59 0.91 7 5A 7 WDM Valley 15 5A 4 Pleasant Valley 10 19.72 10.10 -5 5A 10 Ankeny Centennial 10 5A 13 Cedar Falls 14 -7.98 -5.56 4
#8 Northwest wins over #11 Kennedy; a coin-flip game was expected.
#14 CR Prairie upsets #12 Linn-Mar; Prairie plays 31 points better than expected.
#7 Valley beats #4 Pleasant Valley; Valley plays 25 points better than expected.
#13 Cedar Falls upsets #10 Centennial.
5. 5A Rankings
Leaders: Dowling, Southeast Polk, Ankeny.
Valley, Northwest, and Johnston are generally two-touchdown underdogs to the favorites.
6. 5A games
Valley @ Cedar Falls is clearly the interesting game of the night. Valley is a 7-point favorite.
7. 4A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 18 CR Washington 7 4A 1 CR Xavier 44 42.87 41.33 37 4A 8 Indianola 35 4A 7 Bondurant-Farrar 13 11.29 4.02 -22 4A 26 Fort Madison 7 4A 2 Waverly-Shell Rock 49 50.90 49.19 42 4A 10 Western Dubuque 15 4A 4 Eldridge North Scott 38 16.09 17.44 23 4A 16 LeMars 7 4A 3 CB Lewis Central 57 32.40 38.68 50 4A 12 Glenwood 38 4A 13 Spencer 26 7.16 1.50 -12 4A 9 Webster City 14 4A 6 Iowa City Liberty 24 7.66 8.89 10 4A 15 Newton 28 4A 5 Carlisle 48 21.83 22.55 20
Indianola upsets Bondurant-Farrar.
Glenwood upsets Spencer.
8. 4A Rankings
Tier 1: Xavier, Waverly-Shell Rock, Lewis Central
I’m noting a major move by Lewis Central to get to Tier 1. The model was had Lewis Central below the leaders seemingly all season (my memory).
9. 4A Games
Carlisle @ Iowa City Liberty is the headline game. Carlisle is a 2-point favorite.
10. 3A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 3A 9 MOC-Floyd Valley 7 3A 1 Harlan 42 36.54 37.86 35 3A 8 Nevada 10 3A 17 Sioux Center 7 -9.20 -7.47 -3 3A 19 Central Clinton 9 3A 2 Mount Vernon 23 40.26 36.37 14 3A 7 West Delaware 18 3A 6 Solon 42 9.52 12.43 24 3A 22 Hampton-Dumont-CAL 0 3A 5 Humboldt 39 23.29 28.30 39 3A 15 Van Horne Benton 17 3A 12 Independence 20 3.82 3.37 3 3A 27 Grinnell 0 3A 3 Adel ADM 56 39.40 38.27 56 3A 14 Creston COM 20 3A 4 Alleman North Polk 52 19.21 21.80 32
(no upsets)
Model had a nice prediction on Benton @ Independence.
11. 3A Rankings
Tier 1: Harlan
Tier 2: Mount Vernon, ADM
Tier 3: North Polk, Humboldt, Solon
12. 3A Games
North Polk @ ADM is the headline game. ADM is favored by 6.
13. 2A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 2A 13 Clarinda 16 2A 1 Central Lyon CL-G-LR 42 42.68 41.24 26 2A 5 Inwood West Lyon 43 2A 14 Greene County 7 0.60 -12.13 -36 2A 8 Ida Grove O-A-BC-IG 34 2A 6 Osage 22 10.00 3.33 -12 2A 12 Clear Lake 21 2A 3 Spirit Lake 43 17.30 22.06 22 2A 10 Cresco Crestwood 20 2A 9 Waukon 18 2.98 2.24 -2 2A 7 Dubuque Wahlert 21 2A 4 West Marshall 14 11.05 7.67 -7 2A 20 Centerville 28 2A 16 Monticello 27 7.48 7.21 -1 2A 28 Wellman Mid-Prairie 7 2A 2 Williamsburg 63 46.73 47.36 56
(4 upsets)
West Lyon overperforms by 37, wins the pre-game prediction of a coin-flip over Greene County.
Crestwood wins a close game over Waukon.
West Marshall beat Wahlert.
Centerville wins a close game over Monticello.
14. 2A Rankings
Tier 1: Central Lyon
Tier 2: Williamsburg and Spirit Lake
15. 2A Games
Headliner: Crestwood is a 8-point underdog @ Wahlert.
16. 1A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 1A 7 Western Christian 49 1A 10 Aplington AP 27 14.47 -3.01 -22 1A 9 Carroll Kuemper 7 1A 1 Hawarden West Sioux 45 3.58 17.01 38 1A 8 Dike-New Hartford 6 1A 5 Monona MFL-MarMac 28 3.35 8.26 22 1A 12 Waterloo Columbus 14 1A 4 West Branch 27 21.28 18.65 13 1A 11 Mediapolis 14 1A 14 Sigourney-Keota 20 -5.56 -0.68 6 1A 20 Woodward-Granger 0 1A 3 Van Meter 42 32.92 36.88 42 1A 6 Pella Christian 38 1A 13 South Hamilton 30 -7.69 -7.60 -8 1A 23 Guthrie Center GC-A- 14 1A 2 Underwood 62 41.72 42.19 48
Sigourney-Keota upsets Mediapolis.
17. 1A Rankings
Tier 1: West Sioux, Underwood, Van Meter, West Branch.
Tier 2: MFL-MarMac, Pella Christian, Western Christian.
18. 1A Games
MFL-MarMac is a 6-point underdog @ West Branch.
19. A Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act A 16 Hinton 27 A 8 Hartley HMS 46 17.85 18.12 19 A 10 LeMars Gehlen 7 A 3 Woodbury Central 48 11.50 18.40 41 A 15 Mason City Newman 14 A 9 North Linn 28 15.86 16.46 14 A 4 Wapsie Valley 9 A 1 Britt West Hancock 16 9.91 9.76 7 A 6 East Buchanan 57 A 13 Alburnett 21 -5.53 -14.65 -36 A 12 Columbus Junction 7 A 2 Grundy Center 41 16.44 22.48 34 A 21 Southwest Valley 14 A 7 Avoca AHSTW 35 27.59 26.62 21 A 14 Mount Ayr 33 A 5 Lynnville-Sully 62 14.24 21.34 29
(no upsets)
20. A Rankings
Tier 1: West Hancock , Grundy Center, Woodbury Central
Tier 2: Wapsie Valley, Lynnville-Sully, East Buchanan, AHSTW, HMS, and North Linn
21. A Games
#8 ( 8-2) Hartley HMS @ #3 (10-0) Woodbury Central 9.03 75% #7 (10-0) Avoca AHSTW @ #5 (10-0) Lynnville-Sully 4.86 64% #9 ( 9-1) North Linn @ #1 (10-0) Britt West Hancock 16.64 89% #6 ( 9-1) East Buchanan @ #2 (10-0) Grundy Center 8.44 73%
Just for fun, I am highlighting all games. Based on the probabilites, there’s a 69% chance of at least one upset in Class A.
22. 8 Results
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 8 6 West Bend-Mallard 16 8 1 Remsen St Mary 42 33.38 35.08 26 8 9 Ruthven GTRA 28 8 15 West Harrison 12 -1.16 -5.73 -16 8 7 Anita CAM 14 8 2 Lenox 34 15.79 18.90 20 8 5 Tabor Fremont-Mills 30 8 8 Southeast Warren 28 -5.27 -3.40 -2 8 4 Newell-Fonda 35 8 11 Don Bosco 10 10.18 -4.89 -25 8 14 Gladbrook-Reinbeck 30 8 22 Turkey Valley 28 -12.28 -9.66 -2 8 10 Easton Valley 38 8 19 Montezuma 60 -36.53 -13.59 22 8 21 Central City 12 8 3 Wayland WACO 48 20.67 35.48 36
Easton Valley @ Montezuma – Montezuma overperforms by 57 points, wins by 22 points.
Nice prediction by the model on Fremont-Mills @ Southeast Warren.
23. 8 Rankings
Tier 1: Remsen St Mary
Tier 2: Lenox, Wayland WACO
24. 8 Games
Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 11/03/2022 8 5 ( 8- 2) Tabor Fremont-Mills 8 2 (10- 0) Lenox 102.72 14.42 86% 11/03/2022 8 14 ( 9- 1) Gladbrook-Reinbeck 8 4 ( 9- 1) Newell-Fonda 85.81 14.87 87% 11/03/2022 8 9 ( 9- 1) Ruthven GTRA 8 1 (10- 0) Remsen St Mary 84.68 38.83 100% 11/03/2022 8 19 ( 9- 2) Montezuma 8 3 (11- 0) Wayland WACO 67.33 33.47 99%
As with Class A, I am posting all games. In this case there is a 74% chance of no upsets.