4A vs 3A update

In 4A Extra-class games, I looked at the 7 3A-4A games scheduled for this year. In Predictions for 4A games I produced some rough predictions for these games. Now that week 1 has been completed, 3 of the 7 games have now been played.

3A leads 2-1:

2010/08/20,Sioux City East,36,Bishop Heelan Catholic Sioux City,33,0
2010/08/20,Sergeant Bluff-Luton,16,Sioux City West,14,0
2010/08/27,LeMars,33,Sioux City North,10,0

N     Current prediction    Corrected prediction  Actual score   3A Residual
1     SC Heelan by 53.47      SC Heelan by 40.47 SC East by 3         -43.47
2          SB-L by 42.51           SB-L by 29.51 SB-L by 2            -27.51
3        LeMars by 33.49         LeMars by 20.49 LeMars by 23          +2.51
4 Lewis Central by 60.50  Lewis Central by 47.50
5      Grinnell by 60.06       Grinnell by 47.06
6     SC Heelan by 56.73      SC Heelan by 43.73
7        Harlan by 64.64         Harlan by 51.64

My quote from July:


My biased insight (although perhaps correct) says to simply lower the spreads about 20 points.

Except for Le Mars, all 3A teams underperformed based on computer’s estimate. Mean of residuals (-43.47, -27.51, +2.51) = -22.82 points. My biased insight is currently on target.

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upcoming games:

Cl Rk (W-L) Visitor       Cl Rk (W-L) Home                Line Prob
4A 46 (0-2) CB Jefferson  3A 25 (0-1) CB Lewis Central   54.67 100%
4A 42 (0-2) DM Roosevelt  3A 10 (1-0) Grinnell           52.04 100%
3A 32 (0-1) SC Heelan     4A 38 (0-1) Sioux City North  -25.42  90%
3A  1 (1-0) Harlan        4A  8 (2-0) CB Lincoln        -35.19  96%

Computer is still thinking the 3A teams win big.

Back in July, I wrote:


The 7 3A-4A games all seem reasonably competitive to me. I believe that 3A will win the majority of them (testable hypothesis).

I think Harlan @ Lincoln will be closer than computer thinks. I think 3A will sweep the other 3. Thus 4A-3A series may end at 1-6 or 2-5. Testable hypothesis seems to be on track.

Week 1 iahsaa.org notes

 Around Iowa Prep Gridirons – Week 1, 2010 August 28 (Released by the IHSAA and written from current history as well as from media and coach’s reports) Current Win Streaks Grow: Teams that won state titles a year ago continued to extend the state’s current longest win streaks. Solon, now in 3A, made it 42 […] Continue reading →

Week 1 prediction game

 Current insight of the BCMoore prediction game: + home team favored – visiting team favored Conf Rk (W-L) Visitor Conf Rk (W-L) Home Open Curr MVC 9 (0-0) Dubuque Hempstead MVC 8 (0-0) Cedar Falls 4.0 11.0 MVC 10 (0-0) CR Kennedy MVC 2 (0-0) CR Xavier 20.0 20.0 CIML 20 (0-1) Waukee MRC 13 […] Continue reading →