In 4A Extra-class games, I looked at the 7 3A-4A games scheduled for this year. In Predictions for 4A games I produced some rough predictions for these games. Now that week 1 has been completed, 3 of the 7 games have now been played.
3A leads 2-1:
2010/08/20,Sioux City East,36,Bishop Heelan Catholic Sioux City,33,0
2010/08/20,Sergeant Bluff-Luton,16,Sioux City West,14,0
2010/08/27,LeMars,33,Sioux City North,10,0
N Current prediction Corrected prediction Actual score 3A Residual 1 SC Heelan by 53.47 SC Heelan by 40.47 SC East by 3 -43.47 2 SB-L by 42.51 SB-L by 29.51 SB-L by 2 -27.51 3 LeMars by 33.49 LeMars by 20.49 LeMars by 23 +2.51 4 Lewis Central by 60.50 Lewis Central by 47.50 5 Grinnell by 60.06 Grinnell by 47.06 6 SC Heelan by 56.73 SC Heelan by 43.73 7 Harlan by 64.64 Harlan by 51.64
My quote from July:
My biased insight (although perhaps correct) says to simply lower the spreads about 20 points.
Except for Le Mars, all 3A teams underperformed based on computer’s estimate. Mean of residuals (-43.47, -27.51, +2.51) = -22.82 points. My biased insight is currently on target.
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upcoming games:
Cl Rk (W-L) Visitor Cl Rk (W-L) Home Line Prob 4A 46 (0-2) CB Jefferson 3A 25 (0-1) CB Lewis Central 54.67 100% 4A 42 (0-2) DM Roosevelt 3A 10 (1-0) Grinnell 52.04 100% 3A 32 (0-1) SC Heelan 4A 38 (0-1) Sioux City North -25.42 90% 3A 1 (1-0) Harlan 4A 8 (2-0) CB Lincoln -35.19 96%
Computer is still thinking the 3A teams win big.
Back in July, I wrote:
The 7 3A-4A games all seem reasonably competitive to me. I believe that 3A will win the majority of them (testable hypothesis).
I think Harlan @ Lincoln will be closer than computer thinks. I think 3A will sweep the other 3. Thus 4A-3A series may end at 1-6 or 2-5. Testable hypothesis seems to be on track.