Predictions for 4A-3A games

2001-2009 data set:

class   mean  stdev
   4A   87.44   15.05
   3A   85.87   13.31
   2A   72.57   13.50
   1A   68.04   17.49
    A   61.98   15.33
    8   45.90   20.64

2010 preseason (current rankings, need to be improved):

class   mean  stdev
   4A   79.30   21.57
   3A   90.73   20.48
   2A   81.42   17.54
   1A   75.54   22.37
    A   64.96   21.55
    8   75.94   28.80

My current preseason rankings for the 4A and 3A means does not seem consistent with the long-term differences between 4A and 3A. Additionally it looks like I have class 8 over rated, although this is not a big deal since there are no class A versus class 8 games.

In 2001-2009 rankings, 4A is favored over 3A by (87.44-85.87) = 1.57. In current 2010 preseason rankings, 4A is favored by (79.30-90.73) = -11.43. To get to a 1.57 bias, I need to raise current 4A ratings by (1.57 – (-11.43)) = 13.00 points.

Week 0

08/20/2010 Sioux City East @ 3A Sioux City Heelan
08/20/2010 3A Sergeant Bluff-Luton @ Sioux City West

Week 1

08/27/2010 Sioux City North @ 3A LeMars

Week 2

09/03/2010 Council Bluffs Jefferson @ 3A Council Bluffs Lewis Central
09/03/2010 Des Moines Roosevelt @ 3A Grinnell
09/03/2010 3A Sioux City Heelan @ Sioux City North
09/03/2010 3A Harlan @ Council Bluffs Lincoln

N     Current prediction    Corrected prediction
1     SC Heelan by 53.47      SC Heelan by 40.47
2          SB-L by 42.51           SB-L by 29.51
3        LeMars by 33.49         LeMars by 20.49
4 Lewis Central by 60.50  Lewis Central by 47.50
5      Grinnell by 60.06       Grinnell by 47.06
6     SC Heelan by 56.73      SC Heelan by 43.73
7        Harlan by 64.64         Harlan by 51.64

All of these numbers seem way too high to me. However, at this point I have no unbiased insight. My biased insight (although perhaps correct) says to simply lower the spreads about 20 points.

I will monitor these games this season. Ultimately it is fabuluous that the iahsaa.org has scheduled these games. Much insight will be gained concerning this question: how strong are 4A football teams compared to 3A football teams?