4A Notes After Week 4

Here are some thoughts on the 4A top 10. Probabilities listed as based on the current computer rankings. Probabilities and future records are the result of me doing some mental arithmetic and looking at a standard-normal-distribution table.

   R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod
   1  WDM Dowling           CIML ( 5- 0) 196.66
   2  CB Lincoln             MRC ( 4- 0) 183.21
   3  Bettendorf             MAC ( 4- 0) 181.51
   4  WDM Valley            CIML ( 4- 1) 179.83
   5  Cedar Falls            MVC ( 4- 0) 173.81
   6  Iowa City High         MVC ( 4- 0) 173.73
   7  Ankeny                CIML ( 4- 1) 173.44
   8  Sioux City East        MRC ( 4- 0) 171.71
   9  Eldridge North Scott   MAC ( 4- 0) 169.02
  10  CR Xavier              MVC ( 3- 1) 167.94
  11  Des Moines Lincoln    CIML ( 2- 2) 167.31
  12  Southeast Polk        CIML ( 3- 1) 166.22
  13  CR Washington          MVC ( 4- 0) 166.00
  14  Marion Linn-Mar        MVC ( 4- 0) 164.75
  15  Fort Dodge            CIML ( 3- 1) 164.15
  16  Davenport Assumption   MAC ( 3- 1) 162.78
  17  Ames                  CIML ( 4- 1) 160.31
  18  Mason City            CIML ( 2- 2) 157.80
  19  Pleasant Valley        MAC ( 2- 2) 157.58
  20  Indianola             CIML ( 3- 2) 156.18

#1 Dowling continues to lead, mainly based on 27-point win over #4 WDM Valley in Week 0. Next “test” is 9/24 against #12 (3-1) Southeast Polk, 32 point favorite. Last “test” is 10/01 against #7 (4-1) Ankeny, 22 point favorite. In both cases, the word test is in quotation marks; based on current data, computer thinks Dowling has a 99+% chance of an undefeated regular season.

#2 CB Lincoln is the Cinderella story. Lincoln is #2, because of a 35-point win over #28 Johnston and a 15-point win over 3A #8 Harlan. Two tests remain, both at home. On 10/01 #8 (4-0) Sioux City East travels to Lincoln, Lincoln by 13; and on 10/22 Ankeny travels to Lincoln, Lincoln by 11. Computer currently thinks Lincoln has about a 71% chance of an undefeated regular season.

#3 Bettendorf has a big win over #16 Assumption, 10-0. One test remains: #9 (4-0) North Scott comes to town as a 14 point underdog. Computer thinks Bettendorf has a 90% chance of an undefeated regular season.

#4 WDM Valley has a 27-point loss to #1 WDM Dowling. On the negative side they underperformed vs Ottumwa by about 20 points and overperformed against Indianola by about 20 points. All four remaining games will see Valley favored by 17-27 points: (at Ames and Mason City and two home games with Waukee and Fort Dodge). Conservatively Valley has about a 75% chance of no further losses, finishing 8-1.

#5 Cedar Falls has no big wins, just steady play. The remaining big test is coming soon: on 09/24 #10 (3-1) Xavier comes to the UNI-Dome. Cedar Falls is a 7-point favorite, 73% chance of winning. Chance of undefeated season is about the same at about 73%.

#6 Iowa City High has a big 2-point win over #10 (3-1) Xavier in week 4. Two remaining test remain: 9/30 at #13 (4-0) CR Washington and a home contest on 10/15 against #14 (4-0) Linn-Mar. Computer thinks City High has about a 60% chance of an undefeated season.

#7 Ankeny has a 10-point win over #12 (3-1) Southeast Polk and an upset loss to #20 (3-2) Indianola. Two huge tests remain. On 10/01 they host #1 (5-0) WDM Dowling, 22-point underdog. On 10/22 they travel to #2 CB Lincoln (4-0), 11 point-underdog. Computer thinks they have a 84% chance of losing both games, probably finishing 6-3.

#8 Sioux City East has 3-point win over 3A #5 (3-1) Sioux City Heelan and a 6-point win over #11 (2-2) DM Lincoln. Two tests remain. On 10/01 they travel to #2 (4-0) CB Lincoln as 13-point underdogs. On 10/15 they travel to #12 (3-1) Southeast Polk as 4-point favorites. Computer is expecting them to finish with 7.7 wins and 1.3 losses, probably (8-1).

#9 North Scott has no big wins. A big test will occur on 9/24 at #3 Bettendorf, with North Scott a 14-point underdog. Also on 10/08 North Scott will host #16 Assumption as a 7-point favorite. Computer is expecting them to finish with 7.8 wins and 1.2 losses, probably (8-1).

#10 CR Xavier has a 2-point loss to #6 Iowa City High. Two tests remain. On 9/24 Xavier travels to #5 (4-0) Cedar Falls as a 7-point underdog. Also on 10/22 Xavier travels to #14 (4-0) Linn-Mar as a 2-point favorite. Computer is expecting them to finish with 6.9 wins and 2.1 losses, probably (7-2).

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