2011 Championship Contenders

2011 Championship Contenders

Example:

The winner of the 2009 (09) 4A championship was ranked #2 in week 5.


   00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
4A  1  2  4  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2
3A  3 11  3  3  2  1  8 14  3  1  4
2A  1  4  4  3  3  1  1  3  1  2  2
1A  5  1  1  1  2  3 16  1  1  5  3
A  30  3  4  2  5  2  2  3  1  7  4
8   4  1  3  1  4  1  2  9 28  1  1
   44 22 19 11 17  9 30 31 35 18 16

Ranking at                                cumulative
week 5       Championships  probability  probability
1st               24              36.4%        36.4%
2nd               11              16.7%        53.0%
3rd               12              18.2%        71.2%
4th                8              12.1%        83.3%
5th                3               4.5%        87.9%
6th                0                           87.9%
7th                1                           89.4%
8th                1                           90.9%
9th                1                           92.4%
10th               0                           92.4%
other              5                          100.0%
total             66

83% of championships are won by one of the top 4 teams in the week 5 rankings.

88% of championships are won by one of the top 5 teams in the week 5 rankings.

All other rankings 6th place to 30 place are equal in imperical probability: all long shots.

——————-

Week 5 rankings, http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2011/week5/, have now arrived.

Let us welcome the contenders!


4A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Southeast Polk        CIML ( 4- 1) 128.32  1W  99.72 (  3)  33.80 ( 12)   6.80 (  3)
    2  WDM Valley            CIML ( 5- 0) 121.81  5W  82.74 ( 28)  44.00 (  3)  14.60 (  7)
    3  Iowa City High         MVC ( 5- 0) 118.00  5W  81.97 ( 31)  41.60 (  6)  14.80 (  8)
    4  Ankeny                CIML ( 6- 0) 117.04  6W  86.79 ( 21)  35.50 ( 10)  10.00 (  4)
    5  Bettendorf             MAC ( 4- 1) 112.60  2W  83.24 ( 26)  31.80 ( 16)   6.60 (  1)

3A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Adel ADM              3A-8 ( 5- 0) 121.26  5W  82.02 ( 30)  40.60 (  3)   8.00 (  3)
    2  Webster City          3A-3 ( 5- 0) 116.44  5W  72.90 ( 52)  50.80 (  1)  14.00 ( 17)
    3  Carroll               3A-1 ( 5- 0) 113.75  5W  77.55 ( 40)  38.00 ( 10)   9.60 (  4)
    4  Maquoketa             3A-5 ( 4- 1) 111.84  4W  80.31 ( 37)  38.60 (  7)   7.80 (  2)
    5  Decorah               3A-4 ( 4- 1) 103.85  4W  82.04 ( 29)  29.20 ( 17)  10.80 (  7)

2A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Iowa City Regina      2A-5 ( 5- 0) 125.55  5W  69.01 ( 42)  43.40 (  5)   3.20 (  1)
    2  West Marshall         2A-7 ( 5- 0) 113.69  5W  79.13 ( 14)  44.60 (  3)   4.00 (  2)
    3  Spirit Lake           2A-1 ( 6- 0) 109.58  6W  76.34 ( 21)  43.50 (  4)   8.83 (  5)
    4  Mediapolis            2A-6 ( 5- 0) 107.82  5W  75.54 ( 22)  36.60 (  7)   9.20 (  6)
    5  Prairie City-Monroe   2A-8 ( 5- 0) 107.38  5W  59.35 ( 60)  50.00 (  1)  10.20 (  9)

1A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Panora Panorama       1A-7 ( 5- 0) 111.33  5W  54.49 ( 55)  47.20 (  1)   8.00 (  6)
    2  Woodward-Granger      1A-4 ( 5- 0) 107.74  5W  75.40 ( 13)  30.40 ( 19)   2.60 (  1)
    3  CB St Albert          1A-8 ( 5- 0) 107.37  5W  65.17 ( 38)  40.40 (  7)  11.60 ( 11)
    4  Aplington AP          1A-3 ( 4- 1) 102.09  3W  85.85 (  2)  27.20 ( 25)  14.20 ( 18)
    5  Logan-Magnolia        1A-8 ( 5- 0) 101.37  5W  58.60 ( 49)  42.80 (  5)   6.40 (  2)

A

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  LeMars Gehlen          A-1 ( 5- 0) 106.23  5W  58.97 ( 26)  44.60 (  4)  12.40 (  6)
    2  Lone Tree              A-5 ( 5- 0)  98.35  5W  43.80 ( 48)  52.40 (  1)   7.80 (  3)
    3  Lisbon                 A-5 ( 5- 0)  96.61  5W  47.42 ( 43)  46.80 (  3)   1.60 (  2)
    4  Traer North Tama       A-4 ( 5- 0)  90.07  5W  39.95 ( 50)  49.60 (  2)   0.00 (  1)
    5  Bedford                A-8 ( 6- 0)  84.75  6W  54.97 ( 35)  42.33 (  6)  16.50 ( 13)

8

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  East Mills             8-8 ( 5- 0) 109.68  5W  63.02 ( 13)  56.00 (  8)  14.80 (  8)
    2  Tabor Fremont-Mills    8-8 ( 5- 0) 108.98  5W  48.85 ( 35)  70.20 (  1)   8.00 (  2)
    3  Newell-Fonda           8-1 ( 5- 0) 103.60  5W  56.48 ( 25)  56.40 (  6)   8.00 (  1)
    4  West Bend-Mallard      8-2 ( 5- 0) 103.57  5W  44.25 ( 44)  47.80 ( 16)  10.00 (  3)
    5  Janesville             8-3 ( 5- 0) 102.11  5W  47.54 ( 39)  57.40 (  5)  12.60 (  7)

09/23 Daily FB Report

 Iowa High School Boys Football 9/23 – Top 20 results Pre = pregame prediction Post = postgame prediction Act = actual game margin 4A Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 5 Bettendorf 28 4A 15 Eldridge North Scott 3 -2.76 -13.12 -25 4A 8 Cedar Falls 27 4A 17 […] Continue reading →

09/16 Daily FB Report

 Iowa High School Boys Football 9/16 – Top 20 results Pre = pregame prediction Post = postgame prediction Act = actual game margin 4A Cl Rnk Visitor Score Cl Rnk Home Score Pre Post Act 4A 20 Ames 27 4A 31 Mason City 6 2.84 -12.89 -21 4A 4 Ankeny 41 4A 32 Indianola 13 […] Continue reading →