Week 3 has completed; this is historically the decision point: continue to use information from last year to form a basis of historical “reasonableness” OR discard last year’s data and live in the current year.
And the winner is …
Unbiased rankings are posted this morning.
Two important notes:
- Because of the limited number of games, the spread in team strength from the top team to the bottom team is higher than will be seen at the end of the year. Thus, game margin predictions will be more extreme than will be seen on the field (a bias in itself).
- Because of the limited number of games, the overall model is still learning. Accuracy will continue to greatly improve until week 5 rankings are published. After that point, improvements in accuracy definitely wane. Key statistic: the top 5 teams in week 5 win about 86% of championships.
- Week 5 rankings are scheduled to be published on September 26. Mark your calendar.
http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/fb/2021/ Preseason rankings can be found for 333 Iowa high school football teams. Team Changes that I noticed: West Harrison is teaming up with Whiting this season. Calamus-Wheatland is playing football for the first time ever. In the current football scores database, I have no scores for either Calamus, Wheatland, or the combined team (merged […] Continue reading →
I’ve continue to add scores to the historical database. Thanks to all who have contributed (I know I still have a great number of Clarion scores to integrate.) It’s great to receive good datasets of scores. The best submissions have dates and locations. http://iah.bcmoorerankings.com ——————— The following teams have over 750 scores in the historical […] Continue reading →
For the playoffs, IHSAA has migrated primary score reporting to varsitybound.com. I will see how I might adapt. Continue reading →
Girls rankings: I currently don’t have a score source that I can automate. If you know of a source for scores that can be automated, please let me know. 2020-12-11: UPDATE: http://varsitybound.com is providing girls scores. http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/gbb/2021/ Boys rankings: http://ia.bcmoorerankings.com/bbb/2021/ Rankings can be found for 355 Iowa high school basketball teams. 1. iahsaa.org is the […] Continue reading →