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3A-A multi-year improvement
Unlike 4A, the teams in classes 3A-A play a lot of connecting games. Thus, rankings for 3A-A teams should be more accurate than 4A team rankings. Given this proposed improved level of accuracy, how many teams have improved in both 2008 and 2009? There are 243 teams in the 3A-A pool. Of this number, 52…
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4A Multi-year improvement
From year to year, some teams improve and some teams do not. Let’s assume that 1/2 of the teams rise in the rankings from one year to the next (24 teams). So after two years 12 teams should have improved over this span (1/2)*(1/2)*48. It turns out that only 5 teams have shown consecutive improvement…
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2010 Football Schedules
Schedules are now available for the fall football season. 355 teams will be competing in 6 classes. 4A top 47 schools 3A next 64 schools 2A next 64 schools 1A next 64 schools A next 51 schools 8 man 65 schools Previous research says that last year’s analysis can predict this fall’s games with about…
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Predicting a decade in the future
game, pred, corr/totl, ratio, notes 2009, 2008, 1292/1800, 0.718, 2 teams set to 0.00 2009, 2007, 1157/1800, 0.643, 14 teams set to 0.00 2009, 2006, 1125/1800, 0.625, 17 teams set to 0.00 2009, 2005, 1094/1800, 0.608, 20 teams set to 0.00 2009, 2004, 1075/1800, 0.597, 23 teams set to 0.00 2009, 2003, 1023/1800, 0.568, 32…
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Tradition, one year tradition
So with schedules to be released in 2 days, the inevitable question is “who has the toughest schedule?” To answer this question, a estimate of all team strengths is required. However, no games are been played, so what should be done? Possibilities: 1. Use last year’s team strengths 2. Use a different year’s team strengths…