09/29 Weekly NCAA FB Report

NCAA Football

Weekly 1A FB Report

Rankings

    R  Team                  Conf ( W- L)    Mod Str  Sched  Rank     Off Ave      Def Ave
    1  Oregon                 P12 ( 5- 0) 175.52  5W 120.15 (113)  52.40 (  4)  19.80 ( 34)
    2  Texas                  B12 ( 4- 0) 169.77  4W 135.92 ( 22)  47.25 (  9)  21.00 ( 41)
    3  Alabama                SEC ( 5- 0) 167.09  5W 131.05 ( 57)  40.20 ( 20)   7.00 (  1)
    4  Georgia                SEC ( 5- 0) 165.57  5W 130.03 ( 65)  48.20 (  8)  22.00 ( 48)
    5  Florida                SEC ( 4- 0) 165.36  4W 138.19 ( 15)  30.50 ( 51)  12.75 ( 11)
    6  Kansas St              B12 ( 4- 0) 164.02  4W 126.61 ( 85)  40.50 ( 19)  15.50 ( 22)
    7  Texas Tech             B12 ( 4- 0) 159.81  4W 132.32 ( 41)  43.75 ( 11)  10.75 (  5)
    8  Texas A&M              SEC ( 3- 1) 159.26  3W 133.78 ( 33)  48.25 (  7)  11.75 (  8)
    9  LSU                    SEC ( 5- 0) 157.72  5W 123.56 (102)  39.00 ( 24)  12.60 (  9)
   10  South Carolina         SEC ( 5- 0) 155.91  5W 136.04 ( 21)  36.60 ( 34)  11.20 (  6)
   11  Baylor                 B12 ( 3- 1) 154.30  1L 136.74 ( 19)  54.25 (  2)  39.75 (115)
   12  Arizona St             P12 ( 4- 1) 153.44  2W 132.17 ( 42)  38.40 ( 26)  13.60 ( 15)
   13  Notre Dame             Ind ( 4- 0) 152.32  4W 134.78 ( 29)  25.75 ( 77)   9.00 (  3)
   14  Oklahoma St            B12 ( 2- 2) 152.20  1L 129.81 ( 68)  55.75 (  1)  31.00 ( 91)
   15  Florida St             ACC ( 5- 0) 151.97  5W 117.40 (120)  51.00 (  6)  11.40 (  7)
   16  Oregon St              P12 ( 3- 0) 148.60  3W 143.15 (  4)  25.00 ( 85)  20.67 ( 39)

Review

Top 16 results

Pre = pregame prediction
Post = postgame prediction
Act = actual game margin


09/29

Cl Rnk Visitor            Score Cl Rnk Home               Score    Pre   Post Act
1A  12 Arizona St            27 1A  55 California            17 -18.25 -14.90 -10
1A  86 Arkansas              10 1A   8 Texas A&M             58  34.77  33.47  48
1A  11 Baylor                63 1A  17 West Virginia         70   2.14  -3.88   7
1A  15 Florida St            30 1A  71 South Florida         17 -29.17 -17.49 -13
1A  46 Mississippi           14 1A   3 Alabama               33  25.71  30.89  19
1A  16 Oregon St             38 1A  35 Arizona               35  -5.07  -5.43  -3
1A   1 Oregon                51 1A 103 Washington St         26 -57.65 -54.60 -25
1A  10 South Carolina        38 1A  50 Kentucky              17 -18.11 -15.86 -21
1A  26 Tennessee             44 1A   4 Georgia               51  26.02  22.64   7
1A   2 Texas                 41 1A  14 Oklahoma St           36 -30.07 -15.42  -5
1A   7 Texas Tech            24 1A  22 Iowa St               13 -13.17 -11.03 -11
1B  41 Towson                22 1A   9 LSU                   38  37.54  47.77  16

Preview

Top 16 games

Date  Cl  Rk (W-L) Visitor              Cl  Rk (W-L) Home                   Line Prob
10/06 1A  96 (1-3) Kansas                1A   6 (4-0) Kansas St             41.08  95%
10/06 1A   8 (3-1) Texas A&M             1A  46 (3-2) Mississippi          -18.75  78%
10/06 1A  15 (5-0) Florida St            1A  57 (3-2) North Carolina St    -13.72  71%
10/06 1A  61 (4-1) Miami FL              1A  13 (4-0) Notre Dame            16.93  75%
10/06 1A  62 (3-1) Washington            1A   1 (5-0) Oregon                42.83  96%
10/06 1A 103 (2-3) Washington St         1A  16 (3-0) Oregon St             29.83  89%
10/06 1A   4 (5-0) Georgia               1A  10 (5-0) South Carolina        -7.50  62%
10/06 1A  17 (4-0) West Virginia         1A   2 (4-0) Texas                 23.66  83%
10/06 1A  24 (2-1) Oklahoma              1A   7 (4-0) Texas Tech            15.97  74%

Notes

Rankings are unbiased.

Escapes

#2 Texas was a 30-point road favorite over #14 Oklahoma St. They escaped 41-36.
#4 Georgia, pregame 26-point home favorite over #26 Tennesee, won 51-44.
#16 Oregon St barely surpassed #35 Arizona, 38-35. Oregon State was a slight 5-point favorite.

Upsets/Escape

#17 West Virginia, pregame 2-point home favorites, beat the #11 Baylor Bears 70-63. The post-game analysis thinks Baylor is a 4-point favorite in a rematch in Morgantown.

Game of the Week

#4 Georgia travels to #10 South Carolina as a 7.5-point favorite.

State of Iowa

#22 Iowa State lost 24-13 to #7 Texas Tech. Iowa State was a 13-point underdog. Iowa State climbs to #22 in week 6 after having been ranked #30 in week 5. The Cyclones next face #29 (4-0) TCU at Fort Worth as slight 2-point road favorites.

#67 Iowa beat #68 Minnesota 31-13 in Iowa City to reclaim the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. Iowa’s season has been a collection of alternating wins and losses. The Hawkeyes hope to avoid the alternating loss when they travel to East Lansing, Michigan to face Michigan St. Iowa enters as a 6.5-point underdog against the (3-2) Spartans.

FCS #6 Northern Iowa lost 21-33 to North Dakota St on Saturday in a home game at the UNI-Dome. Looking ahead, Northern Iowa is scheduled to be favorites in all remaining games. A possible 6-game winning streak going into a possible playoff run could start with a win at FCS #62 Southern Illinois. Northern Iowa is a 22-point road favorite.

Comments are welcome